Friday, July 06, 2007

The Coral-Eclipse at Sandown


Peter Chapple-Hyam's Authorized is likely to start long odds on for The Coral-Eclipse Stakes over ten furlongs at Sandown tomorrow, and he's entitled to given the manner of his Derby victory. However Derby winners don't have a particularly good record in this race and favourites have won just two of the last ten runnings, so I'll be looking for value elsewhere.

Beforehand the press have been keen to build this race up as a clash between Authorized and George Washington. I'm undecided about George Washington following his return in the Queen Anne at Ascot last month. Some commentators felt it was a very good performance after such a long absence off the track. He's not certain to stay this trip and the doubts about his temperament persist; on balance he's one I'll pass over.

That being the case, I'm going to side with course and distance winner Notnowcato who was second in this last year. He was firmly put in his place by Manduro at Ascot but the easier going is a plus and priced at around 11/2, he's a value proposition against the front two in the betting. If eight go to post in this race Archipenko will act on the ground and offers decent each way value at around 16/1.

In the five furlong sprint at 2.05 Wi Dud is best in at the weights on official BHB ratings. He comes from stall four which looks a disadvantage, particularly on soft ground. The Sporting Life tissue prices the horse at 12/1; if you take the view that the poor stalls draw is reflected in that price, there's some each way value to be had with the horse.

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

what about a CSF in the big race. any ideas?

shahid

GeeDee said...

Well, Shahid, in my opinion a reverse forecast Notnowcato and Authorized gives the best chance of a return of some kind. Progressively more risky options woud be Archipenko and Authorized and then Notnowcato and Archipenko. It's your call - good luck!

Anonymous said...

Thanks once again GeeDee,

I liked the way Notnowcato went on his on on the rail . You CSF even came in!

Shahid

GeeDee said...

In The Eclipse Ryan Moore rode an outstanding race on 7/1 shot Notnowcato to collect the spoils by one and a half lengths from 4/7 favourite Authorized. On the turn for home, Moore chose to race in splendid isolation on the stands side where the ground was slightly less testing; his brave decision was vindicated with a scintillating victory. Watching the race live, I thought he'd made an error, but I was more than pleased to be proven wrong by the current champion jockey whose professionalism in walking the course beforehand was, in my opinion, the difference between winning and losing.
Archipenko (16/1) raced prominently for much of the race but flattered to deceive, retreating rapidly from two furlongs out to beat only the pacemaker home. There are no more chances for this horse in my book until some solid form is shown.
I thought Wi Dud, sent off at 13/2, was going to win when he hit the front in the final furlong of the sprint but he was mown down in impressive fashion by 9/2 shot Hoh Mike in the final 50 yards; nonetheless a decent effort to finish second in such a competitive sprint.

Tom Roper said...

Thanks for the comment over on my blog, PG. Yes a great race....but you tipped the forecast!htt