Friday, October 12, 2007

Chepstow and Bangor selections

The Paul Nicholls' trained Natal heads the weights in the first at Chepstow and is likely to be popular but he hasn't won over this trip and doesn't convince he'll stay. The two Hobbs' horses would make some appeal if the stable were in better form. I will watch the novice Sultan Fontenaille as he looks less exposed than several of these but I'll pass over this race.

The 2.00 hurdle race for four year olds looks intriguing with the Triumph hurdle form represented by Liberate and Mobaasher. The favourite has won this on five occasions in the last ten years; I'm going out on a limb and will support Is It Me each way at a big price. This horse had early season form with eventual Triumph winnner Katchit last term. He went off the boil but is with a new yard now, has been running on the Flat and the booking of McCoy catches the eye.

I'm surprised to see Vivid Imagination entered in the three mile novice chase (2.35) as he didn't appear to stay when falling at Exeter three days ago. On paper Petit Lord looks the most likely winner but his price will be too short for betting purposes.

The favourite has won seven of the last eight runnings of the juvenile novice hurdle, which is due off at 3.40. Franchoek ran a little free at Market Rasen last time but did well to finish third behind Falcon's Fire and Soliya in a race that was probably the best of its kind run so far this season. Qrackers and Serabad look interesting newcomers but I'll support Franchoek with Alan King's yard starting to hit form.

The unbeaten Theatrical Moment makes his hurdle debut at 4.15 and is considered a future star. He will start long odds on and makes no appeal as a betting medium.

Over at Bangor-On-Dee The King Of Angels and Henry's Pride catch the eye in the Handicap Chase (3.25). Henry's Pride won easily last time out, has a similar profile to previous winners and is the Racing Post's top rated horse by some way. On bare form I think The King Of Angels has acheived more and, as a five year old, should have improvement to come, so he gets the vote.

I'll be tempted to take a chance with Sunday City at 3/1 or bigger in the novice chase (4.00). Finally, in the novice hurdle at 4.35, Evan Williams' King Cyrus looks a value bet at around 9/2.

1 comment:

GeeDee said...

More losers than winners in this little lot. I was pleased I'd elected to watch Sultan Fontenaille (14/1) in the first at Chepstow as he was tailed off on the second circuit and eventually pulled up. It was disappointing to see Natal fall; we still don't know for certain if he stays three miles.
Although out of the money, Is It Me (14/1) ran well for a long way, leading to three out and then getting swamped, eventually finishing sixth.
As expected Petit Lord (6/5) won, with Vivd Imagination fading from three out to finish third.
The stats pointed to Franchoek (7/4) and the horse obliged beating Qrackers (5/1) by thirteen lengths.
I imagine there will be some long faces at the Jonjo O'Neill yard this evening after Theatrical Moment's (4/7) surprise nine length defeat by Presenting Copper.
At Bangor, Baodai (9/1) turned around recent Stratford form with The King Of Angels in no uncertain fashion. The King Of Angels (9/2) finished third.
Sunday City was sent off at 15/8; the horse was two lengths up on favourite Aces Or Better and looking the winner when falling at the last.
9/2 King Cyrus was never on offer. Sent off 2/1 favourite, the horse was brought into the race but finished a one paced third behind Nez Rouge (11/4). Whiteoak would have won this but for jumping badly right at the final two flights.