Friday, November 16, 2007

Cheltenham - Paddy Power Gold Cup

Tomorrow twenty go to post for a very open renewal of the Paddy Power Gold Cup over a distance just short of two miles five furlongs. Paul Nicholls' five year old Granit Jack has just made the cut and currently heads the market at 4/1. This is a tough race for such a young horse and the trip may not entirely suit - today's Racing Post headlines the fact that the owner has backed him at 40/1 for next spring's Champion Chase which is run over two miles. Of the horses priced in single figures, I like Ferdy Murphy's course and distance winner L'Antartique, his profile being similar to several previous winners. The favourite has won this on five of the last ten occasions; L'Antartique will need luck in running as he tends to come from behind but he gets the vote. Those looking for an each way horse at a bigger price could do worse than Philip Hobbs' Private Be, currently trading at 12/1.

In the 2.00 race on the same card Falcon's Fire has winning form over Franchoek but on Racing Post ratings Franchoek is the clear top rated animal. Franchoek ran a little keen that day but went on to beat Qrackers well at Chepstow, although the latter named has done very little since to frank the form. The Pipe inmate Sainte Kadette is likely to start favourite, having won from the front over course and distance last time. I'm going to stick with Falcon's Fire as he's likely to offer better value.

I had considered Bob Bob Bobbin in the finale but a quick look at the form shows his best performances have come with cut in the ground; that being the case, I'll abstain here.

1 comment:

GeeDee said...

Graham Lee gave L'Antartique (13/2) an exceptional ride to win the Paddy Power Gold Cup by a neck from 33/1 shot Il Duce. The race was marred by the death of Granit Jack who fell two out when travelling strongly. Private Be (12/1) found himself caught in a tussle for the lead early on and gradually weakened from three out to finish eleventh.
Falcon's Fire (4/1) was one of the first beaten in his race; Franchoek (6/5f) established himself as the best juvenile seen to date this season with an emphatic performance. He is likely to be labelled 'the next Katchit' from now on.
As suspected, Bob Bob Bobbin travelled sweetly enough but was left for dead at the top of the hill; spare a thought for the punter who bet £50,000 the horse to win at odds of 4/1.