Friday, April 18, 2008

Scottish Grand National

Twenty four go to post in tomorrow's Scottish Grand National at Ayr but there's a peculiarly lop-sided feel to the race with only three horses racing off their correct handicap mark. Miko De Beauchene has been in good form this season, has a nice racing weight and will handle the conditions. He's my idea of the winner and is likely to trade around the 6/1 mark - I should point out that in the past this hasn't been a particularly lucky race for me. Those looking for something at a bigger price with an each-way shout may want to consider Ossmoses at around 12/1 or Philson Run at 20/1. Ossmoses ran well enough after a long layoff last time out and will handle the ground; I'm concerned that on his second run back after such a long layoff he may 'bounce' and you could easily argue that the value has disappeared from the odds on offer. Philson Run appeared unlucky to fall early in the Grand National at Aintree. He's had a light campaign and comes to this relatively fresh. The soft ground will help - it will stop the others getting away - and I think he has reasonable place prospects. Being of Scottish descent, Mrs Tips always takes a keen interest in this event; she has put up Leading Man and Kilbeggan Blade as her two against the field.

The Scottish Champion Handicap Hurdle is due off at 3.00; note that this is a limited handicap, with only five of the seventeen participants racing off their correct rating. In a very difficult race I may have a speculative each-way punt on Bywell Beau at around 25/1 - he will certainly handle the ground.

Noland will be long odds-on in the 2.30 Future Champion Novices' Chase but I'll consider opposing with Starzaan, particularly if the price is 6/1 as today's Sporting Life tissue indicates. The conditions of this race mean there's just one pound between the two using official handicap ratings. Two and a half miles, soft ground and a flat track suit Starzaan who, despite his age, has relatively few miles on the clock.

1 comment:

GeeDee said...

When I published the post yesterday dinnertime, the one thing I thought I could count on was wet weather on the west coast of Scotland. It didn't materialise, with the result that the going was not soft, heavy in places but good, 'drying out all the time'. Connections considered pulling out Miko De Beauchene; he was allowed to take his chance but drifted to 9/1 at the off. He lost touch on the final circuit, being pulled up three out.
Ossmoses (16/1) raced prominently for much of the race but appeared to run out of petrol, eventually finishing fifteenth. Philson Run (20/1) held every chance turning into the home straight but just didn't have the toe to stay with the leaders, finishing a brave fifth on ground faster than ideal.
Iris De Balme (66/1), owned by ex- footballer Lee Power, won this four mile marathon in remarkable fashion, running the final two furlongs as if contesting a six furlong sprint.
66/1 shot Bywell Beau was sixth of the sixteen runners; had the going been softer, he may have squeezed into a place.
Starzaan (9/2) overturned odds-on hotpot Noland on the run-in, after being headed coming to the last.