Thursday, April 16, 2009

Scottish Grand National

Having failed miserably in recent Grand Nationals, I'm not particularly confident my selections for the Scottish Grand National, which will be run over over a distance of four miles and half a furlong at Ayr on Saturday, are going to turn things around. Twenty one are set to go to post; as expected Notre Pere has not been declared on account of the going, so Paul Nicholls' Dear Villez now carries top weight. For this I've decided to avoid completely horses that ran recently at either Cheltenham or Aintree - that takes out Dear Villez, Tricky Trickster, Nine De Sivola, Gone To Lunch, Brooklyn Brownie, According To John, Coe and Arteea . Those who follow trends will tell you that novices have a decent enough record and Chief Dan George will be popular. His chance is respected but he's taken plenty of time to take to the chasing game and as he's likely to start near the head of the market I've decided to look elsewhere. The two each-way chances I like carry less than eleven stones - Sir Robert Ogden's That's Rhythm who has been well-backed in the run up to the race and is now around 16/1 and the Twiston-Davies trained Hello Bud. The stats tell us that the latter named, at the age of eleven, is probably too old to deliver in a race like this but he won without being extended at Wincanton nine days ago, will stay and will act on the expected quick ground; at around 33/1 he appeals as a sporting each-way wager offering some value in this ultra-competitive handicap.

1 comment:

GeeDee said...

Well, bless my old boots! Under a cool front-running ride from Paddy Brennan, Hello Bud won the Scottish Grand National, repelling Gone To Lunch's late challenge by half a length. Hello Bud may have been 33/1 on Thursday evening but four withdrawals on account of the ground (Tricky Tickster, Merigo, and the Nicky Richards trained pair, According to John and Native Coral) meant he was sent off a 12/1 chance. That's Rhythm (9/1) fell heavily at the twentieth. I took a bit of a chance in excluding horses that had run at either Cheltenham or Aintree, and very nearly paid for it with Gone To Lunch (who failed to complete in the RSA Chase at the Festival.) Having said that, Coe finished ninth, Brooklyn Brownie tenth, while Dear Villez, Nine De Sivola and Arteea were all pulled up. Think I'd better go for a lie down now...