Friday, July 17, 2009

Summer Plate at Market Rasen

Sixteen are set to face the starter in tomorrow's highlight at Market Rasen, the Summer Plate. With £65,000 added in prize money, it's no surprise to see multiple runners from two yards that regularly target this event - Peter Bowen fields four, Jonjo O'Neill three. Bowen has won this four times since 2003, although it's fair to say that last year's winner, Snoopy Loopy, didn't appear to have the best of chances beforehand, being sent off at 16/1. For the record, in that race Always Waining finished fourth and Iron Man a distant tenth. Histoire De Moeurs is the shortest-priced of the Bowen runners in the early tissue for tomorrow's renewal but this one has done most of her racing over two miles and doesn't look certain to stay the trip. Of the other entries, I think Always Waining will struggle to carry top weight on easy ground and Iron Man has been well out of form which leaves No Panic as the most interesting, but he's done most of his chasing with other novices - this step up into handicap company will prove a stern test. O'Neill fields three, two of them, Nostringsattached and Nelson's Spice, owned by J P McManus. McCoy has chosen Nostringsattached; that one is likely to be near the head of the market and rightly so with the stable in cracking form - 5 wins from 16 runs in the last fortnight. In a competitive event I'll side with Nostringsattached - the market hasn't been a bad guide over the past decade with the winner coming from the first two in the betting on seven occasions.

Charlie Mann's Katies Tuitor has done me a couple of favours at decent prices in the past and for that reason is a horse I like. He won the Summer Hurdle last year on soft going off a mark of 136; tomorrow he races with top weight off a mark of 150 which I think will be beyond him. This is always a difficult race but I'm tempted to have an each-way interest in Twiston-Davies' Cootehill who carries the minimum ten stones and is one to bear in mind for the future irrespective of what happens here.

Many will think Rupestrain a source of easy money in the 2.40 but I won't be getting involved at short odds. His victories have all come on fast ground and he had to work hard enough to win a Sedgefield juvenile hurdle last time out.

The stats give strong pointers in the 4.15. The winner has come from the first three in the betting on every occasion over the past ten years, the favourite winning on six occasions and finishing second on the other four. Of those with a rating, Any Given Day looks the one to beat although it's interesting to note that Pam Sly's Viable has one pound in hand if the amateur rider's seven pound allowance is taken into consideration. I also noted that Charlie Mann has opted to run Moment Present here; his well-regarded Vacario had an entry in this but earlier in the week was withdrawn from a novices' event at Uttoxeter - I don't know why - he misses this opportunity as well. Any Given Day is the selection.

1 comment:

GeeDee said...

Three selections and three winners, although anyone who backed Nostringsattached and watched the Summer Plate will know we owe a big debt of thanks to one A P McCoy; somehow the champ managed to get the 7/2 favourite home by a short head from stablemate Keepitsecret (20/1) with Peter Bowen's No Panic (10/1) a neck away in third. The selection had it all to do three out and by my reckoning jumped the second last in sixth, some ten lengths off the pace. McCoy performed a minor miracle to win this; if you bet the selection I certainly hope you took a price - the horse opened 6/1 on course. After the race trainer Jonjo O'Neill commented that the winner had met traffic problems up the home straight - that was my initial reaction, so there may be a bit more there. The first two are likely to go to Newton Abbot for a similarly valuable event staged at their meet in a month's time - Sat/Sun August 22/23.
Cootehill (opened 15/2) was sent off 13/2 and pleasantly surprised me by taking the competitive Summer Hurdle readily, going on at the last to beat Ameeq and Danehill Willy, who dead-heated for second, two and a quarter lengths. This one is in rude health at the moment - I wonder what the plan is now...
I had enough reservations about Rupestrain but the 7/4 favourite saw off the opposition here, beating nearest challenger Royal Max an impressive fourteen lengths.
The stats pointed to Any Given Day - he went off even money favourite and the form book records he won 'easily'.

Now, I am perfectly aware, given my past record, that nobody (myself included) would even have considered placing a £1 win treble on the three selections but, allow me this indulgence. Had you done so, you would have collected £67.50. Next winner due sometime late September.