Friday, September 17, 2010

Ayr Gold Cup

There is likely to be plenty of debate surrounding the draw for tomorrow's Ayr Gold Cup, with today's official going described as good, good to soft in places. In the Ayr Bronze Cup ran at 4.30 this afternoon the first four home came from stalls 25, 22, 12 and 26, suggesting that high numbers might be favoured. Those of a patient disposition can wait for the running of the Ayr Silver Cup at 2.15 before striking a wager but, of course, the best prices are likely to have disappered before then. Dandy Nicholls has a phenomenal record in this race, having taken five of the last ten renewals; often though, the yard's lesser fancied runners have run off with the money as the recorded SPs show - two at 33/1 and others at 18/1 and 16/1. This evening the stable's Victoire De Lyphar heads the market and is as low as 11/2 with Coral. In the past decade only one animal has carried more than nine stones three to victory (Advanced in 2007) while horses older than six have a poor record. In the quest for a little value in an ultra-competitive event I'm tempted to take a small each-way interest in Noverre To Go at 25/1. Tom Dascombe's four-year-old gelding has a racing weight which is further reduced with five pound claimer Ross Atkinson in the saddle. His draw towards the far side is favourable but any further rain would hinder his chance.

On official ratings Richard Hannon's Libranno has the beating of his field in the Mill Reef Stakes at Newbury. He disappointed in the Prix Morny the last time but if you forgive that effort the layers' price of 11/4 looks enticing. Crown Prosecutor will be a threat while Temple Meads didn't quite appear to stay the six furlongs in the Gimcrack at York but we can expect a very different ride tomorrow with regular pilot Richard Mullen back in the plate. The plan appears to be to ride more of a waiting race. Connections were extremely bullish their charge would stay the trip before York so I'm inclined to give the colt another chance although on ratings he has plenty to find with the Hannon horse. Temple Meads is priced up at 9/2 with Totesport this evening and narrowly gets the nod ahead of Libranno.


Westcoastpunter said...

I see Noverre is being nibbled at this morning - could run a decent race. I've gone for a couple on my blog - do you fancy swapping links?

GeeDee said...

Frankie Dettori took the Ayr Gold Cup (for the second year in a row) aboard 14/1 chance Redford trained by none other than that man Dandy Nicholls! There were bits and pieces for Noverre To Go (16/1) but he went nowhere pretty fast at the business end of the race, finishing plum last of the twenty six runnners after weakening markedly a furlong out.

Temple Meads (4/1) provided some compensation for that disappointment by taking the Mill Reef Stakes in some style, beating Formosina by one and three quarter lengths. The trainer's faith in his charge was amply repaid here - the plan is the Middle Park Stakes at Newmarket.

GeeDee said...

Noted correction - high numbers in the Ayr Gold Cup run near / stand side (rather than far side, as stated in original post).