Friday, April 29, 2011

Racing thoughts on a royal wedding day

On the day Prince William and Catherine Middleton were married, I'd hoped to get by without mentioning the blessed event but the victory of Nick Gifford's nine-year-old gelding Royal Wedding in this evening's opener at Fontwell put paid to that notion. Bookmakers have indicated they'll pay out millions on the result. The Sporting Life recorded some fair-sized bets on course too including £2500-£500, £2000-£500 (twice) and £1800-£400 (four times). Liam Treadwell sent the 4/1 chance to the front at the third; despite a mistake two out, Royal Wedding stayed on to take the Crabbie's Alcoholic Ginger Beer Handicap Chase by a comfortable 12 lengths. No doubt the race sponsors hope winning punters will splash out on lashings of their product to ensure the street parties continue to go with a swing...

The racing focus now moves to the Flat with the 203rd running of the 2,000 Guineas; the season's first Classic, contested over Newmarket's Rowley Mile, is due off at 3.10. On the form book Henry Cecil's unbeaten colt Frankel shouldn't be opposed; several commentators see this horse as the next big superstar so it's no surprise to see layers offer 4/7. In many ways the race doesn't make much appeal as a betting medium. Some observers weren't overly impressed with the colt's seasonal debut in the Greenham at Newbury while Nick Mordin, writing in the Weekender, makes his case for Roderic O'Connor. For what it's worth my each-way suggestion is Willie Haggas' Fury (18/1 with Coral) but, be warned, I don't follow the Flat so closely and am considering a different approach with the blog for this campaign.

A trend noted last year was that horses with jumps form ran well in a number of Flat races over a distance of two miles or more (with Mamlook winning the Chester Cup, Junior the Ascot Stakes, Bergo the Queen Alexandra Stakes and Overturn the Northumberland Plate). So, time permitting of course, I hope to focus on selected Flat races over a  distance of more than one and a half miles (and some summer jumping). With this in mind I'd noted Philip Hobbs' Comedy Act held a five-day entry in the 4.40 at Salisbury on Sunday but didn't appear in the final declarations. By the same yardstick, entries in Wednesday's Chester Cup that may be worth a second look include Dirar, Sentry Duty, Mamlook, Overturn, Admiral Barry, La Veccia Scuola, Swingkeel, Tyrrells Wood, Cotillion, Nemo Spirit and Royal Rationale.

And perchance, the last named brings me right back to where I started this post...       

Wednesday, April 27, 2011

Summary report 2010/11 season

Having just returned from a short Easter break, here's a rather short summary of the 2010/11 National Hunt season...

Champion jockey: Tony McCoy - 218 winners
Winning trainer: Paul Nicholls - £2,424,059
Winning owner: Trevor Hemmings
Champion conditional jockey: Sam Twiston-Davies - 59 winners
Horse of the Year: Big Buck's

Early in November Ruby Walsh suffered a broken leg in a fall from Corrick Bridge that meant the Irishman missed most of the 'core' season; he returned just in time to take the Thomas Pink Leading Rider Award for Cheltenham, riding five Festival winners.  The inclement weather of the depths of winter resulted in many trainers chosing to send their charges to Cheltenham without a preparatory run. That policy didn't appear particularly successful - Cue Card and Time For Rupert were two high profile disappointments. Nicky Henderson suffered the embarrassment of having to withdraw Binocular from this year's Champion Hurdle as the horse continued to test positive for a banned substance that had been previously administered for an allergy; privately the British Horseracing Authority admitted to having concerns about the standard of record-keeping at Henderson's Seven Barrows establishment. The trainer then appeared to be enduring something of a nightmare Festival, drawing a blank on the first three days, but on Friday he sent out Bobs Worth to win the Albert Bartlett and 40 minutes later Long Run to win the Gold Cup. Long Run's victory, with amateur Sam Waley-Cohen up, marked a changing of the guard but events in this year's National - two fatalities and winning rider Jason Maguire banned for misuse of the whip - have overshadowed the sport in recent weeks. The whip debate continues unabated  - Cornelius Lysaght writing in yesterday's Guardian states that doing nothing is now the only option that can be sensibly dismissed.    

Finally, after some deliberate deliberation, I awarded Blog Horse of the Year to Nacarat who was tipped twice and won on both occasions - Wetherby's Charlie Hall Chase (6/1) in November and Aintree's Betfair Bowl (7/2).

Friday, April 22, 2011

Final curtain call at Sandown

The curtain comes down on another jumps season at Sandown tomorrow. Public reaction to the fatalities in the National and the use of the whip currently dominate the sport's agenda but champion trainer Paul Nicholls asserts 'jumping is in great heart' in today's Times.That view isn't shared by two Northern-based stalwarts, Ferdy Murphy and Harvey Smith (former showjumper extraordinaire and husband of trainer Sue Smith), who shared some outspoken opinions about life up North with Alan Lee in yesterday's edition of the same paper. A couple of quotes...

Murphy: 'The North has been raped. Jump racing here is being turned into glorified point-to-pointing.'
Smith: 'You can't get sense out of London [the BHA]. After all these years and all the calls I've made, I've never found where the buck stops.'
Murphy: 'I would only give myself another three years if nothing changes.'
Steve Charlton [senior valet for jumps jockeys in the North]: 'Prize money up here is derisory now... Anyone trying to run a business in northern jump racing is pushing water uphill.'
Murphy: 'Wetherby is a disgrace these days. They claim they have no money and all they are putting on is rubbish.'

The 2011 Cheltenham Festival, regarded as vintage by many observers, seems light years away. Towcester racecourse, one of the first, if not the first, to experiment with free admission, has once again shown itself to be at the forefront of change by requesting permission to run all races next season with whip use prohibited.

The feature on Sandown's mixed card is the bet365 Gold Cup Chase, still referred to as the Whitbread by old-timers such as myself. 18 will face the starter this year; the official going is described as good, good to firm in places. No favourite has obliged in the past decade and in the same timeframe only two horses have won carrying more than 11 stones (Puntal 2004 and Lacdoudal 2006). Seven of the last ten winners have been priced 10/1 or bigger - Puntal was a 25/1 chance in 2004. Last year's winner Church Island heads the weights and is likely to race prominently, a comment that applies to Baby Run who made amends for unseating young Willie Twiston-Davies at Cheltenham by winning the Aintree Fox Hunters' Chase for the same rider. Elder brother Sam takes over tomorrow. A case can be made for several of these in what appears a run-of-the-mill renewal; I've looked for something at a price. David Pipe's ten-year-old Faasel catches the eye with five pound claimer Conor O'Farrell in the plate - totesport offer 20/1 at the time of writing. William Hill go 33/1 Major Malarkey who has the assistance of top jock Aidan Coleman. The latter has tended to show his better form with cut while Faasel's second to Ballabriggs at last year's Festival reads well now; I'll take an each-way interest in Faasel at 20/1.

Paul Nicholls' Sanctuaire is likely to be odds-on in the opener after a facile victory in the Scottish Champion Hurdle last week. I will oppose with Clerk's Choice provided he's priced up around 2/1 (as he is in the tissue). He'll appreciate quick ground; connections deliberately missed Aintree after the gelding ran a stormer in the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham.

The Celebration Chase doesn't make much appeal as a betting medium. French Opera would have been of interest but has had two hard races in the past five weeks and the same comment applies to ColinTizzard's Oiseau de Nuit. Cornas has tended to show his best form on soft ground while Chaninbar has refused to race on his last three 'starts'. It all seems to point to Tataniano but the Andy Stewart owned gelding disappointed on his seasonal debut, missed Cheltenham with a muscle problem and is another who has better form to his name when there's cut underfoot. I'll watch with interest.

And that's it for another jumps season.  Of course, it all starts again with almost indecent haste - at Plumpton on Sunday...   

Sunday, April 17, 2011

In the news...

Following a week in which the fallout from last week's Grand National could be described as significant, racing again finds itself in the spotlight for the wrong reasons. Reports in the press this weekend indicate that the British Horseracing Authority is at present refusing to comment on fresh race-fixing allegations that could involve up to five jockeys. Watch this space, as they say...

On the Grand National... Professor Tim Morris, Director of Equine Science and Welfare at the BHA, has had a busy week with media commitments and he appeared on Saturday's Morning Line. He acknowledged racing is a sport that comes with its risks and can never be made risk-free; nonetheless every avenue would be explored to reduce the risks involved in response to public reaction to last Saturday's events. Interestingly, he inferred that many of the comments the BHA had received related to the misuse of the whip; he appeared unequivocal on that point - the whip is not a welfare issue.

In amongst it all, I just wondered about SamWaley-Cohen's thoughts after the big race. Should he have kicked on when Ballabriggs blundered and lost the lead six from home? Another opinion I've heard in places - if the field had jumped 30 (rather than 28) fences, Oscar Time would probably have collected the spoils.

Former BBC political correspondent and racing man Robin Oakley has been busy of late. Following the hardback release of Frankincense and More: The Biography of Barry Hills last September, The Cheltenham Festival: A Centenary History has just been published. Incidentally, the paperback version of the former title is set to be released on 20th May. If  Robin Oakley isn't quite your cup of tea, perhaps Gary Wiltshire, 'The Belly from the Telly', is. Winning It Back: The Autobiography of Britain's Biggest Gambler is now on the bookshelves. Gary lost £1 million when Frankie Dettori famously went through the card at Ascot on 28th September 1996; that event made Gary Wiltshire famous - as he says in the preface, every cloud...   

Friday, April 15, 2011

Scottish Grand National

In the week after Aintree's Grand National there has been no shortage of people giving their opinion on last Saturday's events. Simon Barnes and Carol Midgley of The Times inform us they've watched their last National, the latter stating 'I think I know the difference between right and wrong' while Matthew Syed, the same paper's 'Sports Feature Writer of the Year', resorts to quoting chunks of Orwell to readers in a piece penned on Wednesday. The case for the defence included Brough Scott appearing on The One Show, a statement issued by the British Horseracing Authority and support for the race from champion jockey Tony McCoy. As if all that wasn't enough, there's another Grand National tomorrow - in Scotland!

30 have been declared for tomorrow's showpiece at Ayr where the going is described as good, good to soft in places; at the time of writing two look doubtful - Fair Along and Bellflower Boy. Neptune Collonges has stood his ground which means that just eight of the 30 declared will carry their correct handicap weight; Neptune is set to concede a minimum of 15 pounds to his opponents. Several runners were in action at Cheltenham last month - Neptune Collonges (Gold Cup), Chicago Grey, Beshabar and Be There In Five (NH Chase), Blazing Bailey, Fair Along and No Panic (Stewart Family Spinal Research Handicap Chase), Fredo (Kim Muir), Poker De Sivola (Cross Country Chase), Gansey (Byrne Group Plate) and Gone To Lunch (Foxhunter Chase) while Minella Four Star beat Ballyfitz in the Midlands Grand National and That's Rhythm jumped a sand line in the turf at the start of last week's Aintree National before overjumping at the first and falling. No favourite has obliged in the past decade and only one winner has been priced lower than 12/1 (Ryalux in 2003). Of the market leaders, Always Right (9/1 Coral, totesport) appeals, certainly more so than last year's winner Merigo who was well behind the former in the Grimthorpe at Doncaster. Having said that, Always Right just held Lothian Falcon (first-time cheekpieces applied) in that Doncaster race; the latter reopposes on 10 pounds worse terms here although Peter Carberry can claim seven of them. I shall take a small each-way interest in Always Right.

I'm not particularly tempted by the Scottish Champion Hurdle (a limited handicap). Those who want to play may be interested in Nick Mordin's comments in the Weekender - Bygones Of Brid doesn't travel well but has won five out of six on local tracks. He may be of interest at a price.

On Arkle form Giorgio Quercus has the beating of Stagecoach Pearl in the 2.20 while the five year old mare Nadiya De La Vega is well regarded. Geraghty looks to have chosen Giorgio. For the record, the favourite has won three of the past ten renewals whereas the second favourite has won on four occasions.

Sunday, April 10, 2011

After Aintree

Differing perspectives on the Grand National... Donald McCain followed in the footsteps of his father by training Ballabriggs to win this year's renewal but the race will be remembered for the deaths of two horses, Ornais and Dooneys Gate; the field bypassed two fences on the second circuit to avoid the stricken animals. The Telegraph reported that BBC coverage of the race had been criticised for failing to openly refer to the deaths until the end of the broadcast. According to a report in today's Observer, changes made to the course in the past 12 months allowed the fences to be bypassed - if those changes had not been carried out, the likelihood is the race would have been stopped and declared void. Other welfare issues were prevalent on a very warm day. Several jockeys dismounted immediately after crossing the line, including Jason Maguire, Tony McCoy and Ruby Walsh, as there appeared a significant risk horses would collapse through exhaustion and dehydration after completing the four and a half mile marathon. The TV pictures of Maguire's walk to the winner's enclosure conveyed a scene of outright bedlam.  Later Andy Stewart, owner of Ornais, responded by hitting back at much of the criticism aimed at the race.

This evening conditional rider Peter Toole remains in a serious condition in an induced coma after his mount Classic Fly fell at the first in Saturday's Maghull Novices' Chase. We wish him well.

Friday was Ladies' Day at Aintree; overall winner of the competition was 33 year old Lystra Adams, whose distinctive headgear obviously impressed stewards and judges alike. She walked away with prize money of £5,000 and a holiday in Saint Lucia.

Finally, for those with a bit of money left over from their National winnings... George Stubbs' Gimcrack On Newmarket Heath comes up for auction at Christie's on July 5th. The painting is guaranteed to sell for at least £20 million.      

Friday, April 08, 2011

Aintree Grand National 2011

For those who are keen to make their own selections, my Twitter Guide to this year's runners may prove of very limited use. For everyone else, here's a view...

1. Backstage Going well last year when brought down. Had this as his target all season. Trainer knows what's required having won the 2007 running with Silver Birch.

2. Big Fella Thanks Fourth last year, appearing to run out of petrol losing third spot on the long run-in. Sixth the year before, so knows how to get round.

3. Don't Push It Last year's winner is another year older and has an extra five pounds to carry.

4. State Of Play Finished third last year and fourth the year before. 2006 Hennessy winner has a nice racing weight although trainer thinks his charge can't win.    

5. Golden Kite Munster National winner sneaks in at the bottom of the handicap and looks the best big-priced outsider to these eyes (80/1 bet365, Victor Chandler and Stan James.)

6. Oscar Time Sam Waley-Cohen finished fifth on 40/1 chance Liberthine in 2007. Oscar Time, part-owned by his father, is taken to give the amateur a decent ride round. Expect mayhem if he becomes the first amateur to win the Gold Cup and the National!


Good luck everyone!

A Twitter Guide to the 2011 Grand National final declarations

Please find below, as requested (by one person only), the updated Twitter Guide to take account of this year's Grand National final declarations. Comments compiled on each runner using Twitter's 140 character limit. You may wish to note that, at the time of writing, amongst those bookmakers *not* offering a quarter the odds five places are Betfred, Coral, William Hill and Ladbrokes... Tut, tut.

DON'T PUSH IT Gave McCoy his first National victory in this race last year. Top weight makes it a tough task this time
TIDAL BAY Quirky customer with plenty of ability. Sixth in the Gold Cup, not guaranteed to stay or take to the fences
VIC VENTURI 2009 Becher Chase winner looked unlucky to be brought down when going well last year
WHAT A FRIEND Part owned by Sir Alex Ferguson, failed by a nose to take third from Kauto Star in the Gold Cup. Decent ground essential
MAJESTIC CONCORDE Won the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown on his first try at three miles; will he stay?
OR NOIR DE SOMOSA Ninth in the 2008 Grande Chase de Paris. Now registered with Pipe yard - 50/1 in places and could be anything
DOONEYS GATE Fourth behind Always Waining in the Topham last year; prefers cut underfoot
BIG FELLA THANKS Sixth in 2009, fourth last year. Now with new trainer and new owners. Place prospects
THE TOTHER ONE Quirky inidivdual who woudn't be one to trust implicitly. Last won October 2008
BALLABRIGGS Trevor Hemmings owned. One time favourite for this before going down to the smart Skippers Brig at Kelso
THE MIDNIGHT CLUB Willie Mullins trains the current market leader; Ruby Walsh booked to ride
NICHE MARKET 2009 Irish National winner had this race as target all season. Lost his place after Canal Turn on second circuit last year
SILVER BY NATURE Hacked up under top weight in Haydock National trial. Lucinda Rusell's grey is easy to spot, as is @petescu. Wants soft
BACKSTAGE Well in contention when hampered and unseated rider at 20th last year
CHIEF DAN GEORGE Only two winners this season for Cumbrian trainer Jimmy Moffat doesn't bode well
SILVER BY NATURE Hacked up under top weight in Haydock National trial. Lucinda Russell's grey is easy to spot, as is @petescu
CALGARY BAY Jockey Hadden Frost hopes to emulate his father's victory on Little Polvier (1989); a big horse for the fences but stable form poor
KILLYGLEN Pulled up in last year's Scottish National when trained by Howard Johnson
OSCAR TIME Sam Waley-Cohen bids to become the first amateur to ride Gold Cup / Grand National double - horse part-owned by his father
QUINZ Impressive winner of Racing Post Chase. Young horse who may lack thatlittle bit of experience
BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE Suffered injury when second to Majestic Concorde at Leopardstown. Undergone surgery; Davy Russell rides
COMPLY OR DIE Won this in 2008; getting on now but owes nobody
QUOLIBET JP McManus owned grey pulled up in the Cross Country Chase at the Cheltenham Festival
GRAND SLAM HERO Chestnut gelding owned by Dai Walters who has pumped plenty of money into Ffos Las racecourse
STATE OF PLAY Finished 3rd and 4th in last two renewals; will think he's let loose with 10-6. 25/1 looks big - trainer states he can't win
KING FONTAINE Well beaten in the Haydock National trial won by Silver By Nature
IN COMPLIANCE Never won beyond two miles six furlongs
HELLO BUD Commendable fifth last year but now aged 13 and chances are his best days have passed by
WEST END ROCKER Dour stayer who won Warwick Classic Chase before being pulled up in Haydock National trial. Not without a chance if taking to big fences
SANTA' S SON Won Wetherby's Castleford Chase over two miles in 2008 - unlikely to stay
BLUESEA CRACKER Bay mare who won last year's Irish National. Recently purchased by JP McManus
THAT'S RHYTHM Owned by 'Don't Tell Henry'; fell in past two Scottish Nationals
SURFACE TO AIR Won the Summer National in 2008. Off the track until last month - follow trainer's Twitter updates @nhtrainer

PIRAYA Trained by @DavidPipeRacing, pulled up on last two starts
CAN'T BUY TIME Fell at the Canal Turn on the first circuit last year; been out of sorts since
CHARACTER BUILDING Seventh last year and a decent prep in this year's Grimthorpe at Doncaster. Plenty of market interest, Nina Carberry rides
ORNAIS Owned by the Stewart family, has been running in hunter chases recently
ARBOR SUPREME Should handle ground, 8lbs well in, fell at Chair last year
ROYAL ROSA 12 year old owned by Andrea & Graham Wylie. Second in Becher last November, unseated at 14th last April
SKIPPERS BRIG Defeat of Ballabriggs last time reads well but prefers soft ground
GOLDEN KITE Munster National winner trained by former jock Adrian Maguire. Handles ground - there are worse 66/1 shots

Thursday, April 07, 2011

Ladies' Day - Aintree 2011

Very quick notes bashed out very quickly for Aintree's Friday card which has also been marketed as Liverpool's Ladies' Day...

The feature Melling Chase (3.05) sees ten face the starter. Albertas Run won the Ryanair at Cheltenham and is priced up favourite to take the second leg of this double for the second year in succession. The key to Jonjo O'Neill's horse is decent ground  - the going is officially described as good to soft, good in places. Those brave enough to oppose are spoilt for choice as a case can be made for a few. On official ratings both Master Minded and Somersby have the beating of the market leader but neither has won over the distance; Ruby Walsh has said on a couple of occasions that Master Minded needs cut underfoot these days while Somersby was tapped for toe at Cheltenham - he may appreciate an extra half mile here but he may not appreciate this speedy track. There's also a school of thought that says Kalahari King can gain revenge over his Cheltenham conqueror on this flat track with a furlong less to run.  French Opera has won over this course and over the distance and rates a speculative each-way play priced at 11/1 with Coral this evening.

I was disappointed to see The Giant Bolster unseat Rodi Greene in the RSA at Cheltenham. Tom Scudamore takes the ride in the 2.30 after Greene subsequently displaced a bone in his neck when parting company with 50/1 shot Diamond Twister at Lingfield. The Giant Bolster had started sluggishly at Cheltenham and hadn't looked the fastest previously but connections think they have a Gold Cup horse in the making. This fast track wouldn't be certain to suit, a comment that applies to likely favourite Wayward Prince. Robinson Collonges never went a stride at Cheltenham but doesn't look guaranteed to stay the trip at this level while Master Of The Hall finished a tired sixth in the RSA but would be a danger to all if fully recovered. The talented Quito De La Roque who has won five of his nine starts is respected but all those victories have come on soft / heavy ground. That being the case, I'll take an each-way interest in Sheena West's well-regarded Golan Way who comes to this fresh.

Back In Focus would be of interest in the 4.15 if the ground were soft while Kilcrea Kim is dropped to handicap company in the 4.50 but makes little appeal in an event with 21 opponents. If pressed for a selection in the concluding mares' race on Ladies' Day, I'd give Tante Sissi the nod - in the Weekender Alan King rates Tante Sissi his strongest chance of the day.                 

Wednesday, April 06, 2011

Quick thoughts on Thursday's card - Aintree 2011

Very quick comments on the first day of a meeting that I've always found particularly tricky.

Only six runners in the Betfair Bowl (3.05) but at the prices I'm inclined to oppose Denman twenty days after his excellent second in the Gold Cup; he had a hard enough race that day and at the age of eleven isn't getting any younger. Having finished second in the previous two runnings of the Gold Cup (behind Kauto Star in 2009 and Imperial Commander in 2010), Denman fell two out in this race in 2009 and also disappointed when fourth in the Guinness Gold Cup at Punchestown in 2010. On official ratings Punchestowns is the next best horse - he has 19 pounds to find but he would surely have been beaten by Pasco the last time had that one not choked up Kempton's long home straight. Good ground is the key to Nacarat although there's a slight question mark about his ability to see out this trip at this level. Carole's Legacy was second at the Festival, so the fresh horses are of most interest. Punchestowns isn't totally written off but Nacarat beat Deep Purple six and a half lengths in the Charlie Hall at Wetherby last November - Nacarat get the vote.   

Many see the opener as Big Buck's versus Grand Crus round two after the World Hurdle three weeks ago. If ever Big Buck's was to be beaten it was surely at Cheltenham the last time with the way the race was run and Walsh dropping his stick before the last. I saw Carlito Brigante win the Coral Cup in something of a common canter but he's upped in class here and on official ratings has 34 pounds to make with the favourite. The layers aren't taking many chances by offering 10/1 this one - he wasn't stopping at Cheltenham but isn't guaranteed to stay and I note he won a Flat handicap at Leopardstown over a mile just under two years ago! No selection.

Zarkander's victory in the Triumph was impressive but the gelding will be no price in the 2.35 while Herons Well would be the suggestion to those looking for a sporting each-way shout in the Fox Hunters' Chase.

Medermit was a little disappointing in the Arkle but is given another chance over an extra half mile at 4.50; Wishfull Thinking will be popular and matches the selection on official ratings while Paul Nicholls' Royal Charm is given every respect.

Sunday, April 03, 2011

Five years on...

Mrs Tips would be the first to confirm I'm not a great one for birthdays and/or anniversaries but I couldn't let today pass without reference to this blog's first post which went out five long years ago. That initial post highlighted a couple of themes that have resurfaced on occasions - a general antipathy towards (the institution of) marriage and random racing stories thrown in to distract from the distinct lack of winners.

Here's to the next five years!        

A Twitter Guide to the 2011 Grand National entries

A  Twitter Guide to the top 44 entries in this year's National. Why stop at 44? Well, I simply ran out of steam... As in previous years, the Twitter Guide has been compiled using Twitter's 140 character limit for each entry and, once again, is likely to prove of no practical use whatsoever in finding the winner. At the time of writing, the following layers offer a quarter the odds five places: bet365, Boylesports, Victor Chandler, BlueSquare, Paddy Power and 888sport.

DON'T PUSH IT Gave McCoy his first National victory in this race last year. Top weight makes it a tough task this time
TIDAL BAY Quirky customer with plenty of ability. Sixth in the Gold Cup, not guaranteed to stay or take to the fences
MIDNIGHT CHASE Likes to race prominently, fifth in the Gold Cup, has more than his share of weight
SYNCHRONISED Welsh and Midlands National winner - had a hard race to finish third in this year's renewal of the latter. Prefer cut underfoot
VIC VENTURI 2009 Becher Chase winner looked unlucky to be brought down when going well last year
WHAT A FRIEND Part owned by Sir Alex Ferguson, failed by a nose to take third from Kauto Star in the Gold Cup. Decent ground essential
MAJESTIC CONCORDE Won the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown on his first try at three miles; will he stay?
OR NOIR DE SOMOSA Ninth in the 2008 Grande Chase de Paris. Now registered with Pipe yard - 50/1 in places and could be anything
DOONEYS GATE Fourth behind Always Waining in the Topham last year; prefers cut underfoot
SCOTSIRISH Second in last year's Topham; done most of his racing around two to two and a half miles
BIG FELLA THANKS Sixth in 2009, fourth last year. Now with new trainer and new owners. Place prospects
BALLABRIGGS Trevor Hemmings owned. One time favourite for this before going down to the smart Skippers Brig at Kelso
THE TOTHER ONE Quirky individual who wouldn't be one to trust implicitly. Last won October 2008
NICHE MARKET 2009 Irish National winner had this race as target all season. Lost his place after Canal Turn on second circuit last year
THE MIDNIGHT CLUB Willie Mullins trains the current market leader; Ruby Walsh booked to ride
BACKSTAGE Well in contention when hampered and unseated rider at 20th last year
CHIEF DAN GEORGE Only two winners this season for Cumbrian trainer Jimmy Moffat doesn't bode well
SILVER BY NATURE Hacked up under top weight in Haydock National trial. Lucinda Russell's grey is easy to spot, as is Peter Scudamore
NOTRE PERE Former Guinness Gold Cup winner at Punchestown looks out of sorts these days
CALGARY BAY Jockey Hadden Frost hopes to emulate his father's victory on Little Polvier (1989); a big horse for the fences but stable form poor
KILLYGLEN Pulled up in last year's Scottish National when trained by Howard Johnson
OSCAR TIME Sam Waley-Cohen bids to become the first amateur to ride Gold Cup / Grand National double - horse part-owned by his father
BALLYTRIM Well beaten behind Bluesea Cracker in last year's Irish National
BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE Suffered injury when second to Majestic Concorde at Leopardstown. Undergone surgery; Davy Russell rides
COMPLY OR DIE Won this in 2008; getting on now but owes nobody
NEDZER'S RETURN Never won beyond two miles six furlongs
NORTHERN ALLIANCE Fifth in 2010 Galway Plate behind Finger Onthe Pulse, fifth in Kerry National in September. Behind In Compliance last time
QUINZ Impressive winner of Racing Post Chase. Young horse who may lack that little bit of experience
QUOLIBET JP McManus owned grey pulled up in the Cross Country Chase at the Cheltenham Festival
GRAND SLAM HERO Chestnut gelding owned by Dai Walters who has pumped plenty of money into Ffos Las racecourse
ROLL ALONG Well beaten at Ascot last time - 66/1 shot
KING FONTAINE Well beaten in the Haydock National trial won by Silver By Nature
STATE OF PLAY Finished third and fourth in last two renewals and will think he's been let loose with 10-6. 25/1 looks big
HELLO BUD Commendable fifth last year but now aged 13 and chances are his best days have passed by
IN COMPLIANCE Never won beyond two miles six furlongs
SANTA'S SON Won Wetherby's Castleford Chase over two miles in 2008 - unlikely to stay
WEST END ROCKER Dour stayer who won Warwick Classic Chase before being pulled up in Haydock National trial. Not without a chance if taking to big fences
BLUESEA CRACKER Bay mare who won last year's Irish National. Recently purchased by JP McManus
CAN'T BUY TIME Fell at the Canal Turn on the first circuit last year; been out of sorts since
CHARACTER BUILDING Seventh last year and a decent prep in this year's Grimthorpe at Doncaster. Plenty of market interest, Nina Carberry rides
ORNAIS Owned by the Stewart family, has been running in hunter chases recently
PIRAYA David Pipe trained grey, pulled up on last two starts
SURFACE TO AIR Won the Summer National in 2008. Off the track until last month - follow trainer's Twitter updates @nhtrainer
THAT'S RHYTHM Owned by 'Don't Tell Henry'; fell in past two Scottish Nationals

Friday, April 01, 2011

Calm before the storm?

Tomorrow's media focus will be on the William Hill Lincoln, a race I've tended to avoid as I've always thought it something of a lottery. However I note four favourites have obliged in the past ten years and two other winners have come from the top three in the market, so perhaps it's time for a re-think. In the same timeframe only two have carried more than nine stones to victory - Babodana (9-10) in 2004 and Penitent (9-2) last year - while six four-year-olds have collected and six have won from a single-figure draw. I've heard one whisper during the week- for Richard Fahey's Our Joe Mac - but I see stable jockey Paul Hanagan prefers Irish Heartbeat. Old habits die hard - I'm not going to play.

The two NH cards on offer have a decidedly low-key look, but this time next week everyone will be talking about the Grand National. The jumps story to grab today's headlines has been Paddy Brennan's decision to quit as Nigel Twiston-Davies' top jockey. Those who have followed Alan Lee's comments in The Times will not have been surprised by this news as the scribe has dropped several hints to this effect over the past couple of months. Today's Racing Post quotes Brennan as making a reference to 'blood being thicker than water'; Brennan will keep the ride on 2010 Gold Cup winner Imperial Commander.

Ruby Walsh rides three for Nicholls at Chepstow tomorrow including Twist Pistol in the opener but on ratings Caroline Keevil's Bally Legend is not without a chance in that race. The gelding was well-beaten in a Newbury handicap last time but back in novice company here he looks worth an each-way wager at around the 10/1 mark - Ian Popham claims a valuable three pounds. Super Directa gives weight to all in the 3.20, never easy on soft ground, and he trailled in fifth on his only start over this trip at Fakenham on New Year's Day. I wouldn't be tempted at a short price but it's difficult to make a case for several of the others.

In the 4.25 course winner R De Rien Sivola doesn't have that many miles on the clock and some smart novice hurdle form to her name but she fell in a Hereford handicap chase the last time. Returning to hurdles here she has six pounds in hand on her chase rating; priced 5/1 favourite in the tissue she makes some appeal in a difficult-looking event.

Plenty will think David Pipe's E Street Boy a handicap snip in the Bridgend Designer Outlet Handicap Hurdle but he'll be priced accordingly and  both Speedy Directa and Gainsborough's Art won last time out. Crackerjac Boy ran well here three weeks ago and looks an each-way play against the favourite at around 10/1.

Aidan Coleman has a mention for Venetia Williams' two runners on his blog - Rileyev is an obvious call in the two mile handicap chase at 5.30 but he clearly expects improvement from Emperor's Choice in what looks a better than average bumper. I'll have a small each-way bet at 12/1 or bigger.