Friday, August 03, 2012

From Olympic golds to Newton Abbot

Last week's post on The Times' virtual medal table generated some interest, so I thought I'd follow up seven days on.

The supplement published with The Times on Thursday 26th July printed a virtual table for each day of the Olympics. At the close of business on Thursday August 2nd Team GB were predicted to have three gold medals whereas in actual fact they had five in the bag. If that advantage is maintained to the end of competition, Great Britain will finish with 21 golds, two more than predicted.

For those who may be interested in taking a position, I thought it would be useful to list the GB golds as predicted by The Times, starting from today.

Kath Grainger / Anna Watkins, Women's double sculls

Saturday, predicted to be Team GB's best day:
Helen Jenkins, Triathlon
Men's Four, Rowing
Women's Team Pursuit, Cycling
Mo Farah, 10,000 metres

Ben Ainslie, Sailing

Jason Kenny, Men's sprint cycling

Tuesday, predicted to be the second best day:
One of the Brownlee brothers, Triathlon
Victoria Pendleton, Cycling individual sprint
Sir Chris Hoy, Cycling keirin

No golds

Savannah Marshall, Women's boxing
One other, not listed

Sarah Stevenson (not selected on form)

Sprint canoeing x 2
One other not listed

No golds

You pays your money and takes your choice...

Personally I still think this looks a big ask, so instead I'll consider placing my money on Present To You in tomorrow's 2.35 at Newton Abbot.

The selection was beaten seven lengths by likely favourite Giant O'Murchu six days ago at Stratford over a distance just shy of two miles two furlongs. The shorter trip here appears in his favour, he now races on seven pounds better terms and connections have opted to try a visor for the first time. If the tissue price of 8/1 becomes available, David Bridgwater's charge looks reasonable each-way value.


mrvp said...

If you feel the need to have a go at something in the Olympics - I've taken a casual wager on Savannah Marshall (outright). The reasoning isn't overly scientific, but she's World Champion (won this year somewhere out East - so you could argue that there is some current form). In winning the World Championship she beat 2nd and 3rd in the betting for the Olympics so you could argue that is a solid form line for the tournament (3 wins gets you gold). Boxing can also be argued to be a home sport (when there are no knockouts and it comes to points) and that in a points based contest a home fighter has a small advantage. I've taken 7/4 (best prices 2/1) but the optimum would be to bet each fight individually and roll the money on as an accumulator through each round. Good luck.

GeeDee said...

Hi mrvp,

Apologies for the delay in publishing your comment - I've been without net access this week.

Whilst driving, happened to hear some commentary of Savannah's quarter-final bout - commentator felt she wasn't 'doing enough', towards the end of the fight... Disappointing, as I thought she stood a decent chance.

I also shared your view that 22 golds looked a tough ask so I can hardly believe at the time of writing Team GB have 28 in the bag and are looking to two boxers to take the tally to 30; third position in the overall medal table is guaranteed.

Back to the drawing board...


GeeDee said...

My cautious approach to the Olympics has well and truly been blown out of the water by Team GB's exceptional performance - 28 gold medals going into the last day and third place in the medal table guaranteed.

On course at Newton Abbot Present To You was only ever as big as 5/1 and started 9/2 second favourite. He ran prominently but looked one-paced from two out, staying on for third behind Lucy's Legend (22/1)and Kauto Shiny (11/2). The latter-named, a four-year-old, will be worth monitoring - I wonder what plans connections have in mind. 9/4 favourite Giant O Murchu found nothing at the rear of the field and came home a disappointing eighth.