Friday, January 24, 2014

Cheltenham Trials Day 2014

The return of Big Buck's in tomorrow's Cleeve Hurdle is the big news at Cheltenham's Trials Day meeting. The great horse bids for his 19th consecutive win, a run that started way back on New Year's Day 2009 with victory in the Unicorn Homes Handicap Hurdle. He went off 9/2 that day and has started odds against only twice since: the Cleeve Hurdle in 2009 at 7/2 and the World Hurdle (same year) at 6/1. In the light of that, there will be those who take the view that at 11/10 with several bookmakers this evening, Big Buck's is the value.

Connections have been bullish enough in the build-up given the horse has been off the track for 420 days and has a new pilot aboard in the shape of Sam Twiston-Davies. To my mind Sam's riding isn't as tactically astute as many of the older hands in the weighing room - I thought he came out a distinct second best when pipped by McCoy on My Tent Or Yours in Kempton's Christmas Hurdle; that said, Reve De Sivola and Quartz De Thaix are two who will look to press on tomorrow. The trouble is, if you're looking to oppose, the layers don't seem too keen to lay...

Last year's winner Reve De Sivola is the obvious one while it appears Willie Mullins is hoping Boston Bob will turn out to be another Big Buck's following a couple of mishaps over the larger obstacles. At Fishers Cross' confidence looked shot the last day and the yard's form is ordinary at present but Quartz De Thaix is a tough customer particularly on testing ground - quotes of 50/1 are an insult. On balance I'm not inclined to play.

No favourite has come home in front in the Argento in the past ten years; Rocky Creek heads the market and deservedly so. I saw him win easily at Warwick 12 months ago - he didn't strike me as an out-and-out stayer then but I had to revise that opinion after his second behind Triolo D'alene in the Hennessy (Houblon Des Obeaux 18 lengths adrift in sixth).

Neither of the two Harrys - Harry Topper or Restless Harry - have convinced with their jumping but on official ratings The Giant Bolster is the one to beat. Unfortunately that's only half the story. The gelding has been out of sorts this term and in my book is on the verge of earning the comment 'has his own ideas about the game'. Trainer David Bridgwater is on record saying they have to treat this one with kid gloves but he has run well here before and my theory is tomorrow's pilot Tom Scudamore has been on board when he has put his best foot forward. There's something forlorn in the saying but I'm tempted to give The Giant Bolster, 15/2 with William Hill, another chance; I think I'll know my fate soon enough...

The Neptune should prove informative for future reference; the market tells us it's between Red Sherlock and Rathvinden who fell when making his move at Warwick a fortnight ago. Rated 140 Aubusson (7/1) won from the front over course and distance on New Year's Day and represents a sporting play against the principals.
        

1 comment:

GeeDee said...

Big Buck's unbeaten record was finally broken as he finished third behind shock 66/1 winner Knockara Beau and At Fisher Cross (5/1). The favourite tired up the hill after his lay-off but his pilot didn't do him too many favours, having him in front from three out - the gelding doesn't appreciate being in front too long...

Before the off Mick Fitzgerald reported The Giant Bolster 'hates a bog' so I wasn't particularly hopeful but conditions worked to his advantage as the race was run at a steady pace allowing the selection time to recover from a couple of fragile jumps. To be fair, the jumping improved as the race went on and he stormed up the hill to win at odds of 6/1 with Rocky Creek (6/4f) seven lengths adrift in second.

Red Sherlock (9/4) held Rathvinden (6/4f) in the Neptune. Aubusson (7/1) ran with credit in third but was no match for the leading pair, beaten over 30 lengths.