Friday, January 10, 2014

Kempton's Tolworth Hurdle

Seven declared for tomorrow's re-arranged Tolworth at Kempton with layers marking up The Liquidator as favourite; trainer David Pipe is on record saying Sandown would probably have suited his charge better than this sharp track.

Willie Mullins appears to have a surfeit of riches in the novice hurdle department - the general feeling is Upazo wouldn't necessarily be the best in the yard but they'll find out more tomorrow. Having said that, five of the seven have been allocated an official handicap rating and Walsh's mount has six pounds in hand over his nearest rival.

Josses Hill would be the pick of the Henderson pair while Prince Siegfried was in the process of running a big race the last day when taking an horrendous looking fall at the final flight in Ascot's Kennel Gate Novices' Hurdle - Irving collected the spoils that day and was amongst the five-day declarations for this but connections have decided not to run. Without that heavy fall, Prince Siegfried was a player in my book but it's a major worry and his trainer's comment 'He's a confidence horse' after the gelding's victory at Huntingdon in November doesn't inspire confidence now.

I can't have Creepy (also declared at Warwick 3.00) after a desperately poor show of hurdling in the Challow but Garde La Victoire is of interest. He lost his unbeaten record when pipped a neck by Ballyalton at Cheltenham last time but that doesn't tell the whole story as the form book reports the gelding 'stood at start for 20 seconds before getting going' that day. Perhaps Philip Hobbs' charge isn't entirely straight-forward.

In my book the value this evening is Upazo (7/2 Coral, Bet Victor) and Garde La Victoire (6/1 Boylesports). I'll chance Garde La Victoire - with victories at Aintree and Warwick to his name already, this track should suit.

On RP ratings Killala Quay is the top-rated animal in Warwick's Leamington Novices' Hurdle (3.00) so the 5/1 generally available about Charlie Longsdon's charge looks a fair price - Willie Mullins saddles Rathvinden (as short as 7/4 with Ladbrokes) while Deputy Dan (4/1) has also come in for support.

1 comment:

GeeDee said...

A turn-up in the Tolworth with the finish being fought out by the Henderson pair. Supposed second-string Royal Boy (9/1) held stablemate Josses Hill (5/1) half a length on the line.

11/8 favourite The Liquidator was the first beaten while selection Garde La Victoire quickly looked one-paced around the home turn, failing to lie up with the leaders. He trailed home fourth, just under five length behind Upazo (3/1) in third.

Deputy Dan (5/2) came out on top at Warwick with Rathviden (2/1f) falling and Killala Quay (9/2) running a disappointing race - he lost his position in the heavy ground after the sixth flight and was pulled up.