Friday, November 28, 2014

Black Friday, Hennessy Saturday

After Black Friday comes Hennessy Saturday...

In the past decade nine winners of the Hennessy Gold Cup have been aged either six or seven years old; a five-year-old has never won the race yet Willie Mullins' Djakadam is the clear market leader, priced as low as 4/1 with Boylesports.

This year in particular I'm struck by the bigger prices available about horses who can boast decent form on soft/heavy ground.

Last year's winner Triolo D'Alene may prefer better underfoot conditions but is rated a 33/1 chance while Merry King (fifth in 2013) is 16/1 with William Hill and Houblon Des Obeaux (sixth) is another priced at 33/1.

Previous Welsh National winner Monbeg Dude is 25/1 and Peter Marsh Chase winner Wychwoods Brook is 28/1 (betVictor), as is Dan Skelton's unexposed sort What A Warrior (William Hill).

You pays your money and takes your choice.

With prices like these I've ignored the market leaders and had an each-way wager on Wychwoods Brook (25/1 with SkyBet paying a quarter the odds five places) who had a nice pipe opener over hurdles at Worcester last month.

I also looked closely at Houblon Des Obeaux who will relish underfoot conditions despite top weight and would be in the mix if showing a return to his very best form - the downside is this is his first outing since April.

Back in March More Of That retained his unbeaten record to collect the Ladbrokes World Hurdle in some style.

The gelding makes his reappearance in the Long Distance Hurdle at 2.25 but Warren Greatrex's Cole Harden is likely to have a fitness edge and at 4/1 represents a play against the odds-on favourite whose stable is currently in the midst of a lean spell.

1 comment:

GeeDee said...

A wide-open Hennessy went the way of Oliver Sherwood's Many Clouds (8/1) with Houblon Des Obeaux (50/1!) Merry King (14/1) and Monbeg Dude (25/1) filling the minor places.

Selection Wychwoods Brook (33/1) held a midfield position and looked to be racing well within himself until coming out of the back straight on the final circuit; he made a mistake at the 17th and was pulled up.

Channel 4 pundits described More Of That as 'a certainty' on The Morning Line but he drifted in the on-course market, eventually starting 4/7 favourite. Selection Cole Harden (11/4) set out to make all and had the measure of the market leader three out but Richard Johnson had slowly crept into affairs up the long home straight and Medinas (8/1) went on from the last to beat the selection seven lengths with More Of That a further 18 lengths adrift in third.