Monday, March 09, 2015

Cheltenham Festival 2015 - Tuesday

Willie Mullins' horses dominate betting on the opening day of this year's Festival with Timeform expecting a super show from the unbeaten Faugheen in the Champion Hurdle at 3.20.

Only eight go to post in the showpiece but the field contains last year's winner Jezki, third The New One and fourth Hurricane Fly who happened to win this race in 2011 and 2013.

That suggests this might just be more competitive than the markets would have us believe.

I'm going to support The New One who looked rather laboured on heavy ground at Haydock the last day. He isn't always the cleanest at his hurdles (a comment that also applies to Faugheen) but he has shown fighting qualities in the past; I'd expect to see him ridden a little more prominently this time after suffering interference last year when Our Conor fell fatally.

At 7/2 (with hints of 4/1 here and there) The New One is a value play against the favourite.

As I indicated in an earlier post, bookmakers appear more inclined to lay Faugheen and Douvan (Supreme Novices' Hurdle) than Un Des Sceaux (Arkle) and Annie Power (Mares' Hurdle).

I won't have a bet  in the Arkle (2.05) but I note Mullins' comment in the Weekender:

"However, [Un De Sceaux] won't find it easy coming up the hill. He has to go for it right from the off, as that is his way, and it's exciting but also frightening to watch."

Annie Power is the form selection in the Mares' Hurdle at 4.00 but she's priced accordingly and hasn't run for 311 days. After suffering a setback in November, she was back in work on New Year's Day.

Her handler indicates in the Weekender that she's likely to be a bit fresh after the lay-off so connections have decided to opt for this race (it's often less competitive) rather than the World Hurdle on Thursday.

I've followed Polly Peachum through the season and will chance her each-way provided I can secure a double digit price. She will certainly appreciate better ground.

For those with any money left in their pocket at the end of the day, Little Jon (14/1) is an each-way suggestion in the CHAPS Restaurants Barbados Novices' Handicap Chase; Ryan Hatch claims five.

1 comment:

GeeDee said...

In the Champion Hurdle 4/5 favourite Faugheen won in the manner Timeform predicted; selection The New One 100/30 was unable to quicken before the last and finished a well-beaten fifth.

The mares' hurdle changed dramatically with the final flight fall of Annie Power (1/2f) who appeared to have the race in the bag. Glens Melody (6/1) was left in the lead and just held selection Polly Peachum (9/1) a head on the line.

Little Jon (10/1) came to the last with every chance in the finale but a tired jump put paid to his chance and he finished out of the places in sixth.