Friday, April 03, 2015

The UK General Election 2015 - politics and betting

Back in 2008 Nathaniel 'Nate' Silver shot to prominence with his analysis of the US presidential elections, correctly predicting the winner in 49 of the 50 states.

And he has done much work since - his highly-acclaimed book 'The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction' was published in 2012.

Silver's blog references a number of UK academics who are covering the forthcoming UK General Election at

In the past, compared to US polls, UK polls have not been very accurate but the team are taking steps to address the shortcomings.

Those considering a wager may want to monitor the team's predictions which are revised on a daily basis while Mike Smithson's is de rigueur - earlier this week Smithson penned this article in The Independent where he highlights five 'value' bets.

And Oddschecker does a decent job in listing the bewildering array of political wagers on offer.

By way of a slight digression, politics and betting have had their share of links to the world of racing in the past. Robin Oakley has covered politics and racing for various media outlets, Carl Llewellyn won the 1992 Grand National aboard Party Politics and recent talk of Dream Alliance is no reference to some quixotic political utopia but rather a reference to the film to be released about the 2009 Welsh National winner.

Still, the last word has to go to a politician; it was ever thus.

In today's edition of The Times Ann Treneman reports that communities secretary Eric Pickles is 'one man who is putting his money where his mouth is'.

Pickles tells readers:

"We're going to win with a majority. I have not got any elections wrong for the past six elections that I have put money on."

Eric, looks like the game's up.

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