Friday, March 24, 2017

A Newbury 'mare?

It's a mere week since Sizing John won the Gold Cup at Cheltenham but in some ways it seems like half a lifetime ago. Ever since, the world and his wife has been telling anyone who'll listen which ones to look out for next time following any number of unfortunate incidents in running (my two, Dino Velvet and Ex Patriot, offer nothing in the way of originality).

And with the £1 million Grand National just a fortnight away, official handicapper Phil Smith couldn't resist joining in the fun with a list of horses he now considers "well in" for the Aintree showpiece: More Of That (two pounds, after Gold Cup sixth); Grimthorpe winner Definitely Red (ten pounds); Vieux Lion Rouge (six pounds); Cause Of Causes (five pounds, after winning the Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase - handler Gordon Elliott followed a similar path with 2007 winner Silver Birch) and Just A Par (four pounds).

Tomorrow's cards are just so-so; I've spent that much time looking at the Mares' Novices' Hurdle Finale (Newbury 3.00) where seventeen are set to face the starter I've ended up confusing myself... I've found this race (along with most others, I should add) rather tricky to predict in the past but the stats show the favourite has obliged on four occasions in the last ten years while in the same timeframe no mare has carried more than 11-5 to victory.

Let's Dance won the Mares' Novices' Hurdle at the Festival last week with Dusky Legend (20/1) third, Verdana Blue (25/1) fourth and La Bague Au Roi (10/1) seventh; the three named have form lines with a couple of tomorrow's runners.

La Bague Au Roi beat Cajun Fiddle at Uttoxeter and then, in receipt of three pounds beat Dusky Legend three and a quarter lengths with Copper Kay a further two and threequarter lengths adrift in third over two miles here in November. Earlier that month Dusky Legend had beaten Copper Kay and Snow Leopardess at the track with Same Circus some thirty four lengths away in seventh. Snow Leopardess went on to confirm the form with Same Circus over two miles three and a half furlongs at Doncaster.

Copper Kay idled in front on her penultimate start at Warwick and was caught in the shadow of the post; Philip Hobbs has his team in cracking form at present. I suspect Snow Leopardess may have more to give but of the pair I marginally prefer Copper Kay, joint top on RPR ratings with Pearl Royale.

Ruby Yates' second behind Verdana Blue over two miles at Hereford in January reads well as does Gran Turina's Ludlow second behind River Wylde who subsequently ran very well in the Supreme, beaten ten and a half lengths into third by Labaik. Both mares look less exposed and more open to improvement than a number in the field.

You can't help but feel Alan King must have a very good idea where he is with Tara View given stablemate Dusky Legend finished third at the Festival. The trainer sounds bullish enough in the Weekender pointing out this race has been the target for some time.

A key piece of form is Tara View's defeat of Wizard's Sliabh and Hitherjacques Lady over two miles five at Ludlow just before Christmas. On a strict interpretation Wizard's is five pounds better off for half a length and that's the case Stuart Redding makes in the Weekender. Priced up 14/1 in places and sporting first-time cheekpieces, Wizard's Sliabh makes some appeal but the fact layers bet 9/1 the field shows what an open event this is.

At the time of writing BetVictor and Ladbrokes are the layers offering 14/1 Wizard's Sliabh and they're paying a quarter the odds four places.

Wizard's Sliabh is nothing more than a tentative each-way suggestion.

1 comment:

GeeDee said...

Snow Leopardess (7/1jf) came home four lengths ahead of Copper Kay (7/1jf) with River Arrow (25/1) third and Tara View (9/1) fourth. Held up, selection Wizard's Sliabh (12/1) was outpaced from two out and finished seventh beaten some sixteen lengths in total.