tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25292190.post6615994623373396269..comments2024-03-24T15:26:37.931+00:00Comments on PG's Tips: Newbury's Betfair Hurdle 2018GeeDeehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09834633278297488704noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25292190.post-57811811985336025132018-02-11T09:39:33.100+00:002018-02-11T09:39:33.100+00:00Nietzsche's fifteenth in the Betfair Hurdle, b...Nietzsche's fifteenth in the Betfair Hurdle, beaten over 45 lengths, left punters and philosophers alike with a sensation of Weltschmerz. James Best replaced Danny Cook on the selection who was sent off at odds of 33/1. <br /><br />Held up at the back, he made some limited headway up the home straight but finished well-beaten on ground which was described as soft but looked desperate.<br /><br />Coming from a midfield position Kalashinkov (8/1 jf)rifled past his opponents three out to beat Bleu Et Rouge (10/1) four and a half lengths, with Spiritofthegames (20/1) third, Coeur Blimey (14/1) fourth, Remulic (33/1) fifth and Lough Derg Spirit (20/1) sixth. GeeDeehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09834633278297488704noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25292190.post-40146087407125448942018-02-11T09:17:41.755+00:002018-02-11T09:17:41.755+00:00Agreed, TW. As you said, it didn't look the be...Agreed, TW. As you said, it didn't look the best Fred Winter last year - I fancied Dolos on the back of some comments Sam Twiston Davies made. Winner Flying Tiger has form behind London Prize, Buveur D'Air and Irish Roe this season but, all in all, it doesn't convince. GeeDeehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09834633278297488704noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25292190.post-23341635074659185752018-02-11T07:51:02.317+00:002018-02-11T07:51:02.317+00:00Nietzsche ran best of the three that filled the mi...Nietzsche ran best of the three that filled the minor honours in the 2017 Fred Winter but this was another dent in the form of that race.<br /> <br />I should have heeded Mr Nicholls advice regarding the going and Divin Bere who never got in it, was tailed off and eventually pulled up.<br /><br />TW<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25292190.post-22495227472875115732018-02-10T09:04:00.872+00:002018-02-10T09:04:00.872+00:00Thanks for your comments and ratings, TW. Looks wi...Thanks for your comments and ratings, TW. Looks wide open... ;)GeeDeehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09834633278297488704noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25292190.post-87795142581935210242018-02-10T08:54:16.827+00:002018-02-10T08:54:16.827+00:00Betfair Hurdle (Handicap) (Grade 3) (Class 1) (4yo...<b>Betfair Hurdle (Handicap) (Grade 3) (Class 1) (4yo+)</b><br /><br />Free Timeform race so I've included their ratings:<br /><br />Timeform Rtg,TW RTG,Horse,% WC<br />160,167,IRISH ROE(IRE),11<br />157,169,DIVIN BERE(FR),9.73<br />150p,165,KALASHNIKOV(IRE),7.62<br />155,165,SPIRITOFTHEGAMES(IRE),6.59<br />159,162,JENKINS(IRE),5.05<br />146p,161,LALOR(GER),4.69<br />155,162,POPPY KAY(GB),4.61<br />156,162,VERDANA BLUE(IRE),4.54<br />157,166,LOUGH DERG SPIRIT(IRE),4.54<br />155,161,MISTERTON(GB),4.06<br />156,159,HIGH BRIDGE(GB),3.86<br />152p,161,KAYF GRACE(GB),3.85<br />158p,162,KNOCKNANUSS(IRE),3.49<br />158,158,PROJECT BLUEBOOK(FR),3.12<br />156p,162,SILVER STREAK(IRE),2.9<br />154,162,NIETZSCHE(GB),2.81<br />156,161,COEUR BLIMEY(IRE),2.55<br />152,155,ZALVADOS(FR),2.54<br />151,158,REMILUC(FR),2.37<br />157,149,WATERLORD(GB),2.11<br />156+,155,MOON RACER(IRE),2.05<br />157,160,WILLIAM H BONNEY(GB),2.04<br />157,162,BLEU ET ROUGE(FR),2.03<br />157,161,CHARLI PARCS(FR),1.88<br /><br />TWAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25292190.post-81630862208163260482018-02-10T08:51:09.842+00:002018-02-10T08:51:09.842+00:0010/1 the field suggests a wide-open renewal of the...10/1 the field suggests a wide-open renewal of the Betfair Hurdle.<br /><br />My system output suggests <b>Irish Roe</b> deserves his place at the top of the market but that odds of 10/1 are probably a bit short.<br /><br />The system has again rated <b>Divin Bere</b> much higher than his current BHA rating (156 v 144) and at odds of 40/1 (6 places 1/5 odds) I feel the need to try and recoup earlier losses (see 23-Dec-2017).<br /><br />Paul Nicholls has not quite got my faith:<br />“It's good to have Divin Bere back at Ditcheat though he was a bit too keen on his return to action at Ascot in December before tiring late on. While he has come on for that run, and is in good form at home, I'm concerned that his current mark of 144 is a shade too high for him to be competitive in a seriously tough handicap like this.”<br /><br />"He'll probably struggle a bit on the ground but I wanted to get him out and race ready for the spring. Those races on better ground may just play to his strengths a bit more and he was very good at Cheltenham and Aintree last year."<br /><br />Those quotes sound like today might not be the day for Divin Bere. He is closely matched with <b>Nietzsche</b> on Fred Winter form [probably not the best renewal] but appears to have a bit more scope. The trainer’s suggestion that the ground will be against him might be right, but he ran well in France in much deeper ground and whilst he appears to cruise through his races he might just lack a turn of foot at the business end on better ground and today’s going might blunt a few of the faster finishers. I’ll forgive him his below par seasonal debut and give him another chance today.<br /><br />Good luck<br /><br />TWAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com