PG's Tips

It may be freezing but free tickets are up for grabs!

2012-02-10T20:01:00.003Z

At the time of writing Musselburgh is the only turf card left standing; earlier today the track made 1,000 tickets available free of charge for its Scottish Cheltenham Trials meeting.. Should racing go ahead, I'll closely watch the progress of John Ferguson's three runners (Creekside in the Scottish Triumph Hurdle at 2.05, Cry Of Freedom in the Scottish County Hurdle at 3.45 and Cape Dutch in the finale at 4.50) - the trainer has an impressive 37.5% win strike rate this season - 18 wins from 48 runs.

Newbury's Super Saturday card was called off this morning but has has been re-arranged for next Friday with sponsors Betfair offering free entry for all racegoers.

Meanwhile Nicky Henderson is considering sending Binocular north for Kelso's Morebattle Hurdle on Wednesday. I'm sure the trainer doesn't hold particularly fond memories of the race - two years ago Zaynar was beaten at odds of 1/14f by the Howard Johnson trained Quwetwo on quite desperate ground.

Let's hope there's some slightly warmer weather in the offing over the next few days.

The weather, Wetherby and Weatherbys

2012-02-03T19:34:00.009Z

No selections this weekend - the turf cards at Sandown and Wetherby have already been lost to the weather and prospects at Ffos Las can hardly be described as good after clerk of the course Tim Long conceded frost had got under the covers - there's an inspection at 9.00 tomorrow morning.

What do we have to look forward to? Well, the Cheltenham Festival is just over five weeks away and the team behind the Weatherbys Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide 2012 has started sending out tantalising statistical tweets on @CheltFestNews. The guide, now in its 13th year, is set to be published on February 24th and at £14.95 (including first class postage and packing), will, as always, prove a sound investment and extremely good value for money. This year you can also subscribe to the guide's Text Updates for £9.70 or Online Updates at a cost of £20.00

I'm staying disciplined and will not be tempted by tomorrow's rugby internationals, so no wagers for me this weekend; looking on the bright side, that'll be the first time I've managed to break even this year...

Harry's trial and the Festival Trials

2012-01-27T20:27:00.003Z

You know, it's a week for trials...

On Thursday Harry Redknapp was reported to have said 'I have never written a letter in my life' yet I'm sure I can recall the Tottenham manager having written the occasional column for the Racing Post in the past. Harry also claimed his English wasn't up to scratch and he couldn't spell for toffee but he certainly appears a bit better at Maths as he allegedly asked for a 10% cut of the £3 million profit cleared when England striker Peter Crouch moved from Portsmouth. Hmmm, I'm sure the judge will get to the bottom of it all.

From one trial with its tribulations to several...

The decision of connections to withdraw Grand Crus from the Argento Chase, the feature at Cheltenham's Festival Trials Day, has changed the look of the race completely. I fancied Midnight Chase, fifth in last year's Gold Cup, to offer some each-way value at around 9/1 but this evening he's just 6s, with Ladbrokes going noticeably shorter at 9/2. On ratings the three to concentrate on are Captain Chris, Diamond Harry and Tidal Bay. Captain Chris has done most of his racing over shorter distances but looked to stay the trip when third behind Kauto Star in the King George; I've tipped Diamond Harry a couple of times to date but this talented, notoriously fragile individual has twice been withdrawn on the morning of a big race; and Tidal Bay is something of an enigma. Discussing this race with a colleague, he felt Midnight Chase had seen his best days - I'm not convinced and I feel he shows his best form on good ground but Diamond Harry is the suggestion.

The Triumph Hurdle Trial should prove informative and to my mind looks more comepttive than the market would have us believe. Hinterland (runs in the handicap hurdle at 4.15) looks a useful benchmark - Paul Nicholls' charge beat Hollow Tree three lengths giving that runner-up four pounds but was subsequently beaten seven lengths (conceding seven pounds) by Baby Mix. As a play against likely favourite Grumeti I slightly prefer Tom George's course and distance winner Baby Mix to Nicholls runner Pearl Swan.

I considered Hell's Bay each-way (16/1) in the 2.05 but recent stable form is off-putting.

In the Cleeve Hurdle (3.40) Big Buck's bids for his fifteenth consecutive win but it would be worth remembering he won't be fully wound up for this - the World Hurdle in March being the main target. Connections opted to run here last weekend; the general view is Big Buck's will be some 10 pounds off his best which may give connections of Mourad cause for hope although Willie Mullins' charge also has the World Hurdle as his aim....

The Ascot and Haydock features

2012-01-20T20:40:00.002Z

Ascot's Victor Chandler Chase (3.10) looks a trappy affair. Layers have priced up Nicky Henderson's Finian's Rainbow the favourite; of the eight runners in the field seven have an official rating and in the eyes of the handicapper Finian's Rainbow is the sixth best horse in the race, looking to find some nine pounds with top-rated animal Somersby. Henrietta Knight's charge hasn't won over two miles since December 2009 and last time finished fourth behind Kauto Star in the King George, a trip of three miles - here connections try cheek pieces for the first time but his chance is respected. Al Ferof is a novice of considerable potential - his neck defeat of For Non Stop at Sandown last time wasn't done any favours when the runner-up was beaten four lengths in receipt of seven pounds from Cue Card at Newbury. I've had my fingers burned a couple of times with Wishfull Thinking this season; Philip Hobbs' horse weakened three out in the Paddy Power Chase at Cheltenham's Open meeting before ruining his chance by racing far too freely in the Tingle Creek. The last time Richard Johnson held his mount up and that tactic appeared to work better with Wishfull Thinking going down threequarters of a length to Finian's Rainbow (receiving one pound) in Kempton's Desert Orchid Chase (Oiseau De Nuit in third). In that race Finian's Rainbow blundered badly four from home but recovered well to take the spoils on the run-in while once again Wishfull Thinking, whose breathing problems have been well documented, didn't look the easiest of rides and appeared to hang slightly left at the obstacles up the home straight. Trappy indeed, but at the prices on offer I'm going to give Wishfull Thinking (13/2) one more chance while I wouldn't put anyone off having an each-way dabble on Oiseau De Nuit (40/1 with the sponsors) provided the eight make it to post.

The feature at Haydock, where there is a precautionary inspection at 8.00 am, is the Peter Marsh Chase; the going is reported as heavy. At twelve years old Grand National winner Mon Mome isn't getting any younger but he put in an eye-catching round behind Mostly Bob at Cheltenham on New Year's Day. Venetia Williams' charge was fourth in this race last year carrying 11-10 off a mark of 156; this year he's on a mark of 145 and carries 11-8 so I'm thinking he could be in the mix - he's worth an each-way interest at around the 8/1 mark.

Saturday's Warwick card

2012-01-13T20:04:00.004Z

Warwick is a few short miles down the road from here but I haven't attended a meeting there for well over ten years; I find the hill in the middle of the course particularly disconcerting. However, I've had my leave form signed off so tomorrow I'll put the concerns to one side for the Classic Chase meeting, the course's best jumps card of the year. The going is described as good to soft with soft places on the hurdles course - most people think it will ride 'dead' as there has been very little rain during the week. This is my thinking at the moment...

12.50 Novices' Handicap Hurdle. No selection.

1.25 3 mile Novices' Chase. Four of the seven have an official rating and of those Frascati Park, priced up favourite this evening, is best served by race conditions. I'm tempted to chance Emma Lavelle's unexposed gelding Court Victory. In a recent Stable Tour article the trainer described her charge as a giant, measuring 17.3hh. This sharpish track may not be ideal and he may need a bit more cut but the trip should suit and the accurate jumping he displayed last time at Uttoxeter should serve him well down the back straight where the fences come thick and fast. In the past Golden Chieftain has been seen to have problems in the jumping department. Only one favourite has obliged in the past six renewals, with either the second or third favourite taking the spoils on the other five occasions.

2.00 2 mile Handicap Chase. Previous course and distance winner Marodima made all to win over two and a half miles at Fontwell on Thursday and is priced up favourite on the back of that. A talented individual who was something of a tearaway in his younger days, he's more settled now but may struggle to build up a lead against these. Educated Evans makes more appeal than Roi De Rose who has tended to race over further and has blinkers fitted for the first time. I'd forgive Tara Royal his last effort - 10/1 could look big after the event.

2.30 3 mile one furlong handicap hurdle. Looks incredibly competitive. Two each-way chances against the field - Barwell Bridge (9/1) ran well on his seasonal debut at Wincanton 19 days ago while Venetia Williams' runners are currently in exceptional form and Aachen (20/1) catches my eye. Tenth in the Coral Cup at the Cheltenham Festival, he's never really delivered to his potential but connections try cheek pieces for the first time; he travelled well for a long way at Bangor the last time before fading badly.

3.05 Leamington Novices' Hurdle (2m 5f). The favourite has taken five of the last six renewals and Emma Lavelle appears particularly bullish about the chances of her well-regarded gelding Highand Lodge (owned by the marvellously-named syndicate 'The Unusual Suspects'). There are some interesting sorts in this, including Cotton Mill and Ambion Wood; on balance I'm not inclined to oppose the favourite.

3.40 Classic Chase (3m 5f). Six of the 14 runners are set to carry more than their long handicap weight. In the past those who have run in the Welsh National have struggled here - this year Bench Warrent finished fifth, Hey Big Spender fell and Blazing Bailey was pulled up. I quietly fancied Neptune Equester at Wetherby last time but he lost touch mid-race before staying on again in the Rowland Meyrick. The trainer put that down to a slow pace so I'm going to stay with Neptune Equester who looks nicely weighted and has Aidan Coleman in the saddle.

4.00 Bumper. No selection.

Time for the Tolworth

2012-01-06T19:37:00.002Z

Only five declared for the Tolworth at Sandown tomorrow; a big run can be expected from both Propsect Wells and Colour Squadron while Nicky Henderson's Captain Conan has some smart French form to his name and could be anything. January is usually a quiet month for the Nicholls yard and connections have admitted their decision to let Propsect Wells take his chance here was 'an afterthought'. Colour Squadron makes more appeal, with underfoot conditions likely to suit Philip Hobbs' charge. Colour Squadron (2/1 generally) is the selection.

Other very quick notes...

The Strawberry One (4/1 this evening) has just one pound to find with top-rated Kaffie (7/4) on official ratings in the opener. She is considered, although it's worth noting her wins to date have come on good ground or quicker.

Course and distance winner Dave's Dream looks overpriced at 9/1 in the 2.05 and should be thereabouts granted a decent round of jumping. He merits each-way support, with David Bass claiming a valuable three pounds.

New Year's Day 2012

2011-12-31T20:51:00.003Z

Plum Pudding (18/1) may have been a topical winner of today's 2.20 at Warwick but he must rank as the luckiest winner of the year as first fence faller Tafika was still loose some six minutes after his tumble and hampered leading horse and 5/1 favourite Glens Boy in the shadow of the post to gift the race to the outsider. It certainly didn't make for the best of viewing, being described as 'carnage' by one commentator.

With that occurence in mind, here are some tentative suggestions for New Year's Day 2012 in this 800th blog post...

Cheltenham 1.05: Invictus (11/4 Ladbrokes) appeals as a play against likely favourtie Sonofvic. Sonofvic didn't look the most fluent of jumpers when going down to Grand Crus at Newbury on his first try over the larger obstacles.

Musselburgh 1.15: Bourne has to give 15 pounds to Eagle Rock but could offer value.

Musselburgh 2.25: I'm a fan of Marsh Warbler (fifth in the Ladbroke Hurdle at Ascot last time) but I'm not convinced the going or this track will see him to best advantage. Desert Cry, part-owned by Everton manager David Moyes, looked a very tricky ride in that same Ascot race.

Exeter 12.40: Theatrical Star has been quite highly tried and is an each-way wager if the tissue price of 12/1 becomes available on the day.

Exeter 2.55: I'd chance Penny Max against Golden Chieftain.

Exeter 4.00: Two to monitor in the bumper - Philip Hobbs' Billesley Road and Xaarcet, described in the autumn by Colin Tizzard as 'probably our best unraced horse for the season'.

Let me take this opportunity to wish all readers a happy and prosperous new year.

The final day of 2011

2011-12-30T19:55:00.003Z

The last cards of 2011 have an end of year feel to them. Betfair will certainly be hoping for better things in 2012 following the recent fiasco surrounding their in-running market for the Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown. One year ago Betfair shares traded at 964p; this evening they closed at 752.50p, having recorded a twelve month high of 1054p in January.

At Newbury Philip Hobbs' Fingal Bay will be expected to take the Challow at 3.05 while the novice chase run an hour earlier should prove informative with an eye on the future. Alan King's Walkon has been touted by several but this will be no walk in the park with Colin Tizzard's Cue Card in the line-up as well as For Non Stop from the in-form Nick Williams yard. For Non Stop went down a neck to Al Ferof (quoted a 7/1 chance for the Arkle) in the Henry VIII Novices' Chase at Sandown four weeks ago; layers currently offer 20/1 about Walkon for the Cheltenham race. In the light of that, Ladbrokes' price of 11/4 about For Non Stop for tomorrow's event is of some interest.

Olofi goes in the finale and deserves a change of luck, having run some sound races in defeat. Naively I'd hoped for an each-way price but this evening he's generally on offer at 5/1 with William Hill going 6/1; I think I'll wait until next year for my next bet.

Welsh National 2011

2011-12-26T16:47:00.001Z

As always, particularly competitive but Richard Lee's Le Beau Bai catches the eye at the right end of the handicap. He's not the biggest of individuals but the heavy going should prove right up his street. Third in the 2009 running off a mark of 148, he goes here off 127 having won over the course at the beginning of the month; the yard had a welcome winner with 13 year old Victory Gunner earlier today. Suggestion: Le Beau Bai each-way (10/1 Betfred).

A quick Boxing Day selection box

2011-12-23T21:51:00.001Z

Kempton's King George VI Chase is the Boxing Day highlight with eight declared. Long Run is the top-rated animal; he's never been the one to trust implicitly at the fences but his class has seen him through more often than not. In the Betfair at Haydock he was beaten eight lengths by Kauto Star but put in a couple of howlers down the back straight second time around and should strip fitter here. Today's Times reports that a set of golden plates have been created for Kauto and will be presented to his trainer Paul Nicholls before the race. Master Minded, Captain Chris and Somersby have stamina questions to answer but Diamond Harry will stay on this his first try going right-handed. He was 18 lengths behind in the Betfair but Barry Geraghty takes the ride and looks value at 16/1 provided the eight go to post. Favourites have an excellent record in this race but I'll take an each-way interest in Diamond Harry who won't be inconvenienced by further rain.

Binocular won the Christmas Hurdle last year but the race was mid-January - the horse's record before new year's day of a season isn't particularly encouraging. The yard is bullish but connections were before the Fighting Fifth - I'm not tempted.

Grand Crus has looked impressive over the larger obstacles this season and is fanceid to get the better of Bobs Worth whose jumping wasn't foot-perfect last time at Newbury when just catching Cue Card on the line. The Pipe yard hasn't totally discounted a stab at the Gold Cup with their novice.

Two worth a second look...

Wetherby 1.45 - Neptune Equester
Wincanton 2.15 - Tante Sissi.

Let me take this opportunity to wish all readers a very merry Christmas.

The Ghost of Christmas Past

2011-12-18T10:04:00.002Z

There is something awful about Christmas; I'm sure I'm not alone when I say the one thing that keeps me going at this time of year is the thought of the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day. With a sense of deja vu, I quickly trawled back through previous Christmas posts, just to ensure I hadn't started to mellow in old age...

Last year racing was in the midst of the big freeze; I was reduced to penning an article on train-spotting of all things.

2009's entry attempted to sum up a racing man's Christmas while in earlier years I tried to stimulate some artificial jollity by recommending racing related games to readers. In 2007 Horsey Hoppers looked something of a dodgy also-ran but The Really Nasty Horse Racing Game (2006) proved an outright winner.

In today's Sunday Telegraph Rose Prince's 10 ways to kickstart Christmas has palpably failed to lift my spirits and wandering thoughts of warmer weather in the summer only bring back to mind the time John Parrott swindled me out of a small fortune on a Cardiff pub quiz machine.

Have yourselves a merry little Christmas...

Ladbroke hurdle @ Ascot

2011-12-16T19:51:00.002Z

Popped up and busted for time: one selection - Marsh Warbler (14/1) each way in the Ladbroke Hurdle (3.35 Ascot) provided going is soft.

The International Hurdle at Cheltenham

2011-12-09T19:34:00.008Z

A decent card at Cheltenham tomorrow where the feature Spinal Research The Atlantic 4 Gold Cup with 17 runners will generate plenty of bettng activity but I find the International Hurdle at 3.05 much more intriguing. After sending out 5 winners from 10 runners today, Nicky Henderson saddles one of the two four-year-olds in the field, Grandouet. The opposition includes last year's winner Menorah, the four-year-old Greatwood winner Brampour as well as the front-running Overturn who has done this blog a favour in the past couple of weeks with wins at Ascot and Newcastle. I'm loathe to desert Overturn but he's had two tough races in the past three weeks; immediately after the Fighting Fifth connections indicated they would give their charge a break so it's a surprise to see him out again so quickly. There's also a hint he carries out his front running role better on a flat track. I always think this race is a big ask for a four-year-old; in the past decade two have managed to pull off the trick, Detroit City in 2006 and Binocular in 2008. This year on official ratings Grandouet has five pounds in hand over Brampour and Harry Dereham, conditional jockey of the latter-named, can't claim seven pounds in this event. Menorah reverts to hurdles after unseating two from home at Exeter last time with a novice chase at his mercy; his chance is very much respected but 14/1 Clerk's Choice looks too big a price about a horse that finished two lengths behind Menorah in the Champion Hurdle reopposing here on four pounds better terms. There are mitigating circumstances - Menorah has already had that spin at Exeter and Clerk's Choice went to Oliver Sherwood's yard in unfortunate circumstances when the lass who looked after the horse broke her pelvis in an accident. Still, this race has been the target, the quick ground will suit and I still recall the horse bolting up over course and distance fourteen months ago, beating Barizan and Royal Mix in the process. Provided the rain stays away and the eight get to post, Clerk's Choice each-way at around 14/1 is the wager.

In the Relkeel (3.35) Oscar Whisky is the likeliest winner and is likely to start odds-on; in my opinion he's a horse who benefits from cut underfoot. On official ratings Any Given Day has two pounds to find and at 9/2 represents a play against the favourite for those brave enough.

This evening layers are taking differing views on the trappy-looking three mile novice hurdle at 1.55 which Mossley (runs in 12.45) won last year. Paddy Power go 7/4 about Halley while Coral and Ladbrokes offer 7/2. I was interested in Tim Vaughan's Rev It Up but according to his handler the gelding is better on soft ground so I'm going to watch from the sidelines.

The Tingle Creek and the Becher feature

2011-12-02T19:15:00.006Z

A cursory glance at tomorrow's Tingle Creek and Champion Chase winner Sizing Europe looks the one. With Tataniano now written off for the season, the current champion has 13 pounds in hand over nearest rival Wishfull Thinking. The market has priced the race accordingly; it's worth noting that the favourite has obliged on five occasions in the past decade and in that time the biggest-priced winner was 6/1 shot Cenkos in 2002. Having said all that, Sizing Europe had a right hard race over a mile further in the JNwine.com Champion Chase at Down Royal four weeks ago where he ran out of petrol on the run-in and was passed by Quito De La Roque. It's difficult to know how much that race will have taken out of him. Wishfull Thinking raced from the front in the Paddy Power over an extra half-mile but faded into sixth at the business end and was reported 'very thick in his wind' afterwards; Philip Hobbs, never one to talk up his horses for the sake of it, does not think his charge will be done for pace. While Kauto Stone could be one for the future, it's worth remembering this particular track provides a stern examination of any youngster's jumping but course and distance winner Gauvain isn't totally written off, although I've never found the gelding easy to win with. Sizing Europe is the clear form choice and 6/4 will look easy money to many but in search of a bit of value I'm going to chance Wishfull Thinking at around 3/1. Once again he's likely to race to the fore so at least I'll know my fate soon enough.

At Aintree the feature is The Becher Chase (2.10) run over the National fences. Fifteen go to post and there are plenty with chances including last year's winner Hello Bud who tries to repeat the trick just a couple of weeks short of his 14th birthday. I like a horse at a price with form over the fences in a race such as this and, to be honest, I'm struggling to find something to fit the bill. Niche Market appeals having finished fifth in the National but 8/1 is short enough and the layers are similarly shy about Topham winner Always Waining. Alan King holds National aspirations for West End Rocker and the bay looked unlucky to be brought down at Becher's in the spring so at around 14/1 I'll take a small each-way interest; he didn't shine on his seasonal debut around Cheltenham so connections will be hoping for a better showing here from their Warwick Classic Chase winner.

The opener at the same course sees a clash between Keys and Cinders And Ashes; the last time the pair met the former prevailed by a short-head in a Cheltenham bumper. Cinders And Ashes should come on for his seasonal debut two weeks ago while Keys was last seen finishing down the field in the Cesarewitch. In my book Cinders And Ashes will represent a play against likely favourite Keys if priced 11/4 or bigger.

The Hennessy and the Fighting Fifth

2011-11-25T20:16:00.004Z

After Kauto's heroics in last week's Betfair Chase, this week's Hennessy just hasn't captured the imagination. Old-timers such as myself often witter on about the Hennessy going to a young up-and-coming sort but as Tom Segal points out in the Weekender, last season's top novices looked distinctly average in the Betfair. I bet Aiteen Thirtythree in the RSA last March but he's not the most proficient of jumpers; Wymott's stable jock Jason Maguire prefers Peddlers Cross at Bangor and a quick trip to Newcastle to partner Overturn; Great Endeavour looked good in the Paddy Power but hasn't won over further than two miles six while The Giant Bolster has failed to complete on four of his six chase starts. So, of the younger brigade, Wayward Prince, third in the RSA and fourth behind the well-regarded Quito De La Roque at Aintree three weeks later (Sarando beaten just a neck into second) makes some appeal; trainer Ian Williams sounds hopeful enough and in the past fortnight has sent out seven winners from 36 runners. Of the more established entrants, top weight Neptune Collonges has Harry Dereham take seven pounds off but didn't really hit the heights last season following a long break after injury - since 1957 only three horses older than nine have won: Mandarin (1961), Rondetto (1967) and Diamond Edge (1981). Blazing Bailey is an outside chance while there's a hint Beshabar has the National as his target. Running one pound out of the handicap, Carruthers finished sixth in this last year off a mark of 155 - he returns this time off 146 and ran well on his seasonal debut behind Galaxy Rock at Cheltenham a fortnight ago. Connections try a tongue-tie for the first-time - 20/1 with totesport looks reasonable each-way value. This evening two layers offer a quarter the odds five places on this race - bet365 and Paddy Power.

The sole tip to oblige last week was Overturn and many will tell me that was only because Oscar Whisky fell when challenging at the last. That said, I'm not inclined to desert him against former champion hurdler Binocular in the Fighting Fifth. Nicky Henderson's charge has been sent off an odds-on chance in this race on each of the past two runnings and has been beaten on both occasions. The word from the Henderson yard is their charge is fit and ready this year. Celestial Halo is worthy of every respect but at this evening's prices the 7/2 Ladbrokes offer about Overturn looks particularly tempting.

Big Buck's returns in Newbury's Long Distance Hurdle (2.35); pilot Ruby Walsh was stood down after a fall from Sollim earlier today but he is expected to be fit to ride tomorrow.

All eyes will be on Peddlers Cross who continues his education over the larger obstacles in the opener at Bangor (12.10). At the same track Scholastica goes in the concluding mares' bumper (3.35) and is worth noting for future reference whatever happens here.

Haydock and Ascot

2011-11-18T20:28:00.017Z

At 3.05 tomorrow all eyes will be on Haydock's Betfair Chase as Long Run makes his first appearance on a racecourse after winning the Cheltenham Gold Cup last March. He faces five opponents and on official ratings has upwards of twelve pounds in hand over his rivals; owner Robert Waley-Cohen believes the only thing that can stop his pride and joy here is a lack of race fitness. I'm cautious and with Long Run priced odds-on I prefer to look elsewhere for some value. During the week Paul Nicholls indicated he has done plenty of work with previous Gold Cup winner Kauto Star who is some six weeks away from his 12th birthday. In the past Nicholls has used this race as a stepping stone to the King George and the Gold Cup but the implication is Kauto will not lack for fitness - this time it's the younger horse who has those races as targets. The predicted ground may help Kauto's cause a bit but these days I tend to see Haydock as more of a speed track - the likelihood is a younger animal will go by the former champion up the long home straight. Having said that, should Kauto win, there won't be a dry eye in the house.

That's the Gold Cup winners dealt with! Weird Al raised a few eyebrows on his first run for the McCain stable when beating Time For Rupert three and a half lengths in the Charlie Hall at Wetherby; that was Rupert's first run since disappointing in the RSA Chase at the Cheltenham Festival where he broke a blood vessel. Paul Webber's charge wasn't foot perfect at his fences last time and would be entitled to come on for that run - I'm not convinced placings will be confirmed. Earlier today a tweet from well-repsected observer NarrowTheField highlighted Weird Al's form in chases with less than ten runners 111-1-1 so he looks to have every chance and Timmy Murphy is riding exceptionally well at the moment. Hennessy winner Diamond Harry is very talented but notoriously fragile; he was favourite for the Charlie Hall three weeks ago but was found lame on the morning of the race. He goes well fresh and has been allocated the best speed rating in the Weekender; if he makes it to the course in one piece, he represents a value play at 5/1 or bigger - Diamond Harry gets the vote.

Plenty of old friends (and foes) in the three mile fixed brush handicap hurdle at 2.30. We've seen several of these over fences and one or two will be looking to exploit a more lenient hurdle rating, including Robinson Collonges (chase rating 148, hurdle rating 136); Synchronised (chase rating 155, hurdle rating 147) and Sa Suffit (chase rating 144, hurdle rating 135). No bet for me in this ultra competitive event but I hope old favourite Knockara Beau, who never really took to chasing, is fit enough to do himself justice on this seasonal debut.

Nicky Henderson is in fine form with five winners bagged earlier today; his Grandouet goes in the opener, having taken a crashing fall at Wincanton a fortnight ago. Although an odds-on chance here, he'll need to be at the top of his game to give Domtaline eight pounds. I like Marsh Warbler who has had a pipe-opener on the all-weather at Southwell but the penalty he carries makes things difficult. Tim Vaughan's First Fandago won over two and a half miles at Leicester on Monday and on official ratings isn't completely out of it while stablemate Rigidity was formerly with Sir Henry Cecil before showing promise at Edward O'Grady's over in Ireland.. For those brave enough, Paul Nicholls' Domtaline rates a play against the favourite (7/2 with William Hill this evening).

In the Coral Hurdle at Ascot the winner has come from the top two in the betting on nine occasions in the past decade; Silviniaco Conti was third best in the market when taking last year's renewal. Paul Nicholls fields another relatively unexposed sort in King Of The Night but I prefer Overturn to likely favourite Oscar Whisky - Henderson has indicated he is concerned about his charge giving eight pounds to the selection. Ladbrokes offer 3/1 about Overturn this evening.

Despite a field of just six the Amlin 1965 Chase looks very trappy. Master Minded wasn't convincing first time up in Aintree's Old Roan Chase; as he's grown older he appears to need a bit of cut underfoot and he won't be certain to get it here. Connections have said Boxing Day is their target but if you want to oppose, what to choose? Alan King predicts a big run from Haldon Gold Cup winner Medermit but is under no illusion to the size of the task while improvement is expected from Kalahari King who sports a first-time tongue-tie. 8/1 Kalahari King looks value but that is nothing more than the most tentative of tentative suggestions...

Cheltenham Open meeting 2012 - Sunday

2011-11-12T20:56:00.004Z

Very quick thoughts for Sunday...

The opener should prove informative. Supreme Novices' Hurdle winner Al Ferof makes his chasing debut with Ruby Walsh in the plate. Trainer Paul Nicholls should have a decent idea about this one's chance as the stable's Toubab was beaten threequarters of a length by Lancetto who looks to face a tough task giving weight to this field.

The Greatwood Hurdle (2.20) is the feature and has been won by some decent sorts in the past including Menorah, Khyber Kim, Sizing Europe, Detroit City and Rooster Booster. The winner has come from the top two in the market seven times in the past decade but in the same timeframe only one four-year-old has collected the spoils (Detroit City, 2006). I like Colin Tizzard's Third Intention but this stat is a negative for that one.as well as his Ascot conqueror of two weeks ago Brampour. A number reoppose from the Ascot race including Via Galilei (second), the much-touted filly A Media Luz (third) who needs to give herself a chance by settling better, Nearby (seventh), Kumbeshwar (eighth) and Topolski (last). Pateese is the market leader on the back of an impressive victory at Sandown the last time, although you could argue jock Matt Griffiths nicked it from the front with a bold break for home two out. Back in March Pateese was beaten just over two lengths by Via Galilei at Newbury; Josh Moore's five pounds claim means the pair look closely matched again. Via Galilei was my idea of a wager but the ground appears to have gone against Gary Moore's charge so I'll maintain a watching brief.

On official ratings Woolcombe Folly has plenty in hand over his rivals in the Shloer Chase (1.45) but will be priced accordingly and I'll keep a close eye on African Broadway in the 3.30 for future reference.

Paddy Power Gold Cup 2012

2011-11-11T20:34:00.006Z

The highlight on the second day of the Open meeting is the Paddy Power Gold Cup - 20 face the starter at 2.35. With the Paul Nicholls trained top weight Poquelin standing his ground, eight of the field will be running from out of the handicap - I've concentrated my limited efforts on the animals set to carry their correct weight.

Although a 20/1 shot won this last year, in general terms the market has proved a reasonable guide - four favourites have obliged in the past decade. Poquelin's stablemate Mon Parrain heads the betting; formerly with Guillaume Macaire this five-year-old was impressive on his British debut winning a Sandown handicap chase but there were a few questions when he was run out of it over the National fences in the Topham next time. This evening Mon Parrain is 7/2 with most layers but both Ladbrokes and William Hill take a stand offering 5/1. Cyfor Malta (1998) is the only five-year-old to win this since 1960 and as Nicholls has never trained the winner of this race I'm going to oppose...

Cyfor Malta was trained by Martin Pipe and memories of the good old days came flooding back earlier this afternoon when son David recorded a 186.5/1 treble with Swing Bill (9/1), Decoy (13/2) and Grand Crus (6/4f). The yard regularly targets this meeting and Great Endeavour warrants respect in tomorrow's renewal.I fancied the grey for this last year but he came home a slightly disappointing sixth, failing to land a serious blow.

Course and distance winner The Giant Bolster, named after a Cornish legend, is a horse who has done this blog a favour or two in recent years. His jumping went off the boil last term (unseated in RSA Chase and fell at Aintree) but David Bridgwater has had jumping guru Yogi Breisner out to his charge during the summer. The trainer is on record as saying he thinks this could be a Gold Cup horse.

Another course and distance winner Wishfull Thinking will not want for lack of support but in the run-up the Hobbs yard haven't been sure in which race to run their charge and have recorded just 3 wins from 35 runs in the past fortnight.

Of the other runners, I'm guessing Grand Annual winner Oiseau De Nuit (with Brendan Powell claiming ten pounds) is priced at 40/1 because the layers don't think he'll stay while 33/1 about Calgary Bay looks big given that he was beaten three and a half lengths by Wishfull Thinking here in January and is now 13 pounds better off.

In an ultra competitive event, I'll chance Wishfull Thinking (7/1 Betfred) with an each-way saver on The Giant Bolster (14/1 Coral). Best priced outsider - Calgary Bay (33/1).

I won't get involved in the finale but I hope to see Restless Harry win on his chase debut following a stunning performance in the John Smith's Hurdle at Wetherby last time; Viking Blond could be the one to benefit if the wheels were to come off.

Cheltenham Open meeting 2012 - Friday

2011-11-10T19:57:00.005Z

The finale apart, tomorrow's opening card of the Open meeting is strangely uninspiring. Cue Card for me in the gloriously-named Steel Plate and Sections Novices' Chase which was won by Time For Rupert last year; David Pipe has said he would have ideally preferred the ground softer for Grand Crus who has come to hand quicker than expected but is reported likely to come on for the run.

Garde Champetre, with Nina Carberry in the plate, will be a warm order for the Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase, having won over the course and distance on five previous occasions. J P McManus' gelding was beaten a neck in this last year and won the 2009 renewal from Heads Onthe Ground; the going on the cross country track is firm, good to firm in places.

There's a strong word for Jessica Harrington's Steps To Freedom in the novices' hurdle (2.55) but at the prices on offer I'm going to keep my powder dry.

Madcap each-way suggestion in the 3.30: Architrave (25/1 Paddy Power). I've read somewhere in the past couple of days this one has started to show some form at home of late - he sports a first time visor here. He went off the boil as last season progressed but later stomach ulcers were diagnosed. His sixth of 18 in Chepstow's Silver Trophy (beaten just over ten lengths) three weeks ago reads well enough and the ground should suit.

Somewhat later in the day than might have been expected, the BHA announced the much-touted amendments to the new whip rules. They come into operation with immediate effect and have been welcomed by the Professional Jockeys Association as well as by Open meeting sponsors Paddy Power.

Football shorts

2011-11-06T18:39:00.006Z

Cheer up Harry Redknapp... The Daily Mail reports that doctors have told the Spurs manager he has to stay away from work for another four or five weeks following minor heart surgery. Not too much of a problem for the likes of you and me, but Harry declares: 'This isn't going to stop me doing the job I love.' Under the circumstances then, you wouldn't have begrudged the Tottenham man a bit of good news in the first at Ffos Las today where his Bygones In Brid was sent off the 6/5 favourite. Unfortunately for Harry the wretched beast just hadn't read the script - the bay gelding was tailed off, finishing eighth of the ten runners. Later in the day Tottenham's 3-1 victory at Fulham was more what the doctor ordered but the radio commentary certainly wouldn't have made for easy listening...

Continuing on the subject of work, the fact Alan Hansen is paid £40,000 for every appearance on Match Of The Day has generated plenty of comment this week. Nice work if you can get it, as they say...

Finally, a word for Darren Deadman who refereed the recent Doncaster Rovers v Middlesborough match. Referee Deadman refused to book Doncaster's Billy Sharp after the striker scored a 'goal from heaven' and then revealed a message dedicating it to his son, Louis, who died aged two days old. Well done, Darren.

From Wincanton to Down Royal

2011-11-04T20:47:00.005Z

You tend to think of Wincanton as something of a speed track but the three miles one and a half furlongs of tomorrow's Badger Ales Trophy will take some getting on ground that is currently described as good to soft, soft in places. There has been plenty of rain around this evening too - a young lady walking home in front of me was carrying a very fetching Paddy Power umbrella which sported the wording '5/1 it blows over' - I wasn't remotely inclined to take the odds.

This year's Badger Ales wouldn't be the best renewal in recent years but it still looks pretty open with 14 set to face the starter. In the past ten years four favourites have obliged (Montifault 11/4 2001; Swansea Bay 2/1 2003; Royal Auclair 7/2jf 2004; Abrigante 15/8 2007) while five winners have been priced in double figures (Swansea Bay 14/1 2002; Iris Bleu 10/1 2005; Parsons Legacy 16/1 2006; Cornish Sett 12/1 2008; Ellerslie George 14/1 2009). In the same time frame no horse has been older than nine when winning so on grounds of age I'm going to discount Madison Du Berlais (the pick of Pipe's two on jockey bookings), Hello Bud and Gone To Lunch. Paul Nicholls won this last year with Meanus Dandy but this year stablemate The Minack is more likely to start favourite according to the layers. I've never been 100% convinced about The Minack after he nearly threw away a Kempton novice hurdle (January 2010) when hitting the front two from home. In a post three weeks ago I said I'd seen Benbane Head touted more times than I'd want to recall over the past year; he made a mistake early doors at Cheltenham in that race and was never really competitive thereafter. I'm tempted to go for a bigger-priced animal in this. At Ascot last weekend Dover's Hill got no further than the second when unseating Aidan Coleman and breaking the jock's collar bone in the process; he could go well provided the fences don't get in the way and a similar comment could apply to Vic Dartnall's course and distance winner Richard's Sundance. This horse went off the boil in the second part of last season so I'm taking plenty on trust here but the yard is flying at the moment (four wins from nine runs since October 21st) - Richard's Sundance each-way at 16/1 is the suggestion.

On paper the Elite looks between Grandouet and Celestial Halo but makes little appeal as a betting medium while I'm undecided about Silviniaco Conti in the novice chase. This is a horse I like but I burnt my fingers a couple of times last year and I'm just wary after he finished third behind Cue Card on his chasing debut. He's bound to come on for that and will be more suited by this trip but he's priced up at short odds in a race that is no foregone conclusion. Mad Moose has more chasing experience than the rest while Jetnova is an Irish pointer and Kilcrea Kim an exciting prospect. This evening Paddy Power offers 5/1 Kilcrea Kim which in my book represents a play against the favourite - Kilcrea Kim is the selection.

At Down Royal in Ireland Noel Fehily rides The Nightingale and Kauto Stone for Paul Nicholls as yesterday Ruby Walsh's lodged appeal against a five-day whip ban was unsuccessful. In today's Times Alan Lee reports that jockeys' leaders have admitted privately that 'their impasse with the BHA is at crisis point after this judgement.'

Seven go in a trappy-looking JNwine.com Champion Chase at 2.20. The two top-rated horses, Sizing Europe and The Nightingale, have yet to win at this distance while Quito De La Roque and Bostons Angel look out and out stayers - judging fitness for this first run won't be easy. Midnight Chase could surprise a few - he ran an excellent fifth in the Gold Cup last March - but he wouldn't want too much rain. Connections decided to bypass last week's Charlie Hall to come here (although I'm not totally convinced this is an easier option.) Midnight Chase is 6/1 with William Hill this evening - I'll take an interest provided the rain stays away.

Weekend snippets

2011-10-30T18:14:00.010Z

Jumps racing is a tough old game and I'm guessing the hope of discovering that one special horse is what keeps trainers such as Robin Dickin getting up every morning. I expect there are a few false dawns along the way but when the real deal turns up, you'll be able to spot it quickly enough. Robin Dickin's emotional interview after Restless Harry had beaten Fair Along 20 lengths in Wetherby's John Smith's Hurdle yesterday told us his search is over. Of prime importance now is to do right by the horse; I'm sure Mr Dickin will not be found wanting in that sphere. A novice chase campaign looks on the cards but you can't help wondering whether connections might be tempted by a stab at the World Hurdle next March; this evening Ladbrokes quote Harry 33/1 for the RSA Chase, bet365 the same price for the World Hurdle.

In the past the aptly-named Restless Harry hasn't travelled long distances very well but he was as good as gold on Saturday; connections took a Shetland pony along to accompany the stable star and that appears to have done the trick...

It was good to see Time For Rupert back on form in the Charlie Hall. Although Paul Webber's charge was beaten three and a half lengths by Weird Al, connections were delighted with the performance and have indicated they will consider Haydock's Betfair Chase as his next target.

On the other hand connections of Charlie Hall winner Weird Al are reluctant to commit to the Hennessy. Weird Al has had his problems, a comment that also applies to Diamond Harry who was market leader for the race on Saturday morning before being withdrawn after he was found lame.

Ordinarily you might struggle to find common ground between the British Horseracing Authority and the Church of England but in recent weeks both organisations have managed to preside over something of a public relations disaster - the whip debate and the anti-capitalist demonstration outside St Paul's Cathedral.

On Saturday's Morning Line conditional jockey Stephen Clements (attached to Colin Tizzard's stable) named a couple to look out for - thing was he spoke so quickly, I had trouble understanding what he said! Oiseau De Nuit and Drybrook Bedouin were mentioned but Nick Luck appeared to indicate the latter had been reluctant to go to post in the past.

Finally, a result noted in the mares' maiden hurdle at Uttoxeter on Friday. 66/1 chance Justazippy beat 66/1 chance Prickles a head, 14 ran. The Straight Forecast paid 2068.29 while the Exacta paid 2413.50.
If only...

Wetherby and Ascot

2011-10-28T20:27:00.005+01:00

There are eight declarations for what looks a competitive renewal of Wetherby's Charlie Hall Chase. Nacarat did this blog a favour when collecting the spoils last year and connections will be hopeful of a repeat performance - in my opinion good ground is the key to this horse and he's likely to get that tomorrow. Diamond Harry heads the market but he hasn't been seen since winning last year's Hennessy at Newbury - he has a good record fresh and stable jock James Reveley was bullish enough about the gelding's chance last week. Writing in the Weekender Paul Kealy points out that Poquelin has won 9 from 15 between October and December but has never won from January through to April; having said that Paul Nicholls' black gelding has never raced beyond two miles five. Time For Rupert disappointed last time in Cheltenham's RSA Chase but he had a valid excuse that day (broke blood vessel) and will be a threat to all if back to his best. Chicago Grey appeared unlucky when useating his pilot two out with the race apparently at his mercy a fortnight ago at Cheltenham; he could have a fitness edge over his main rivals here. At the weights Poquelin is the one to beat but there are questions about the trip while Diamond Harry is short enough in the market; I'll side with Time For Rupert.

Fair Along bids for a third successive win in the John Smith's Hurdle (2.45). The gelding can be a tricky customer but he has gone well fresh in the past and is likely to try and make all. What A Friend, part-owned by Sir Alex Ferguson, finished fourth in the Cheltenham Gold Cup and was then pulled up in the Grand National; he is rated 159 over fences and has been priced up favourite this evening but is another who can't be considered the easiest of rides - I'm not convinced this return to smaller obstacles will suit. I do like Restless Harry but it's well known he's a poor traveller so the journey north may have taken its toll. Ashkazar is somewhat inconsistent but when he's good, he's very good; Timmy Murphy should be able to ride his preferred waiting race with Fair Along in the field. Carlito Brigante is respected, having won the Coral Cup at the Cheltenham Festival as he liked. He hasn't won over three miles and there may just be a stamina question over this trip of three miles one furlong; having said that the gelding had the benefit of a pipe-opener on the Flat three weeks ago. At the time of writing both 6/1 Fair Along (William Hill) and 5/1 Carlito Brigante (bet365) strike me as reasonable value; I'll stick with Fair Along.

On official ratings Alasi is the one in the mares' hurdle (2.15) but she's priced accordingly and I've burned my fingers on this event in the past so I'll adopt a watching brief. Similarly no bet in the novices' hurdle (4.00) but the 2008 William Hill Lincoln winner Smokey Oakey, part-owned by Dame Judi Dench, is an interesting runner, having won a maiden hurdle at Aintree in June.

The Ascot card looks difficult so brief comments only on a couple of the runners. Katies Tuitor (listed handicap hurdle at 3.00) likes a quick surface and a right-handed track and should have a fitness edge over some of these having been kept busy during the summer on the all-weather (trained by J S Moore). Over the years this gelding has obliged at a big price on more than one occasion but I just can't see that happening tomorrow - in addition I think he's better on a flat track so Ascot's stiff finish is unlikely to help the cause. Two worth monitoring are Nicky Henderson's filly A Media Luz (Weekender reports her trainer saying she is potentailly top-class provided she learns to settle) and Colin Tizzard's Third Intention (seventh behind Zarkander in the Triumph Hurdle last March).

The Cushman & Wakefield Novices' Hurdle (4.15) should prove useful for future reference while I'm surprised to see Tiger O'Toole declared for the novice chase after falling on his first try over fences at Ludlow; the obstacles here are much less forgiving.

Finally in a recent Stable Tour article Colin Tizzard described Xaarcet as 'probably our best unraced horse for the season.' The gelding goes in the concluding bumper.

A day at the Ludlow races

2011-10-23T13:47:00.005+01:00

It's probably the best part of ten years since I've been to Ludlow but I was there again last Thursday for their second meeting of the autumn with the feature race celebrating clerk of the course Bob Davies' Racing Welfare - Lifetime in Racing award. Bob Davies, champion jockey in 1965, 1966 and 1972, won the Grand National on Lucius in 1978 and has been clerk of the course at Ludlow for an astonishing 27 years. River Rhapsody (9/4f) collected the big race spoils, catching my selection Jim Tango (5/2) after the final flight to win three and a half lengths. After the race Bob talked with both Stan Mellor and Bob Champion over the public address system.

Personally I find Ludlow on a fine autumnal day one of the best experiences in racing. Granted, the fare on offer is low key but the setting and relaxed atmosphere combine to give a certain timeless charm. There was plenty of tweed on show, one punter spotted in a deerstalker; I overheard a comment along the lines of '..but this is so genteel!'

Mrs Tips got the day off to a flying start with 17/2 winner A Little Bit Dusty in the opening juvenile seller - the chestnut gelding came from off the pace to seal the contest with a very quick leap at the last.

Much of the talk before the novice chase centred around Evan Williams' 13/8 joint favourite Tiger O'Toole - in a dramatic race the grey got no further than the first, stumbling on landing. With that, Felix De Giles let the filly Tatispout have her head and she jumped well in the main to win as she liked; in the paddock beforehand she had shown plenty of attitude and had at one point suggested she may not go onto the course. The real drama happened on the bottom bend as the chasing pack tried to reduce the filly's lead; both Dica and That'll Do Nicely slipped up, bringing down Definite All Star and causing Matt Griffiths to be unseated from Freddy's Star. That left the only other runner, 100/1 chance Grasscutter, to come home second (beaten 99 lengths); the exacta paid £78.30. After an enquiry, the stewards declared the chase track safe for racing.

Anonther turn-up in the next with Jane Mathias' sole horse in training Sohappyharry beating Evan Williams' 4/11 favourite Lava Lamp four and a half lengths; the writing was on the wall a fair way out.

I took 9/1 about Gunship in the three mile amateur riders' race for The Court of Hill Challenge Cup. Robbie Henderson gave the gelding a fine ride from the front; the combination jumped the last three lengths up but were done on the run-in by 33/1 chance Foreign King. Nicky Richards' 5/2 favourite Itzacliche was a big disappointment in this, dropping to last at the thirteenth and being pulled up at the fifteeenth. The one to take out of the race would be Nick Williams' unexposed Sarika who looked a big threat to leader Gunship when coming to grief four out.

Man In Black took the two mile handicap hurdle while there was a dead-heat in the finale between Esporao (even money favourite) and Sublime Talent (11/4). I'd backed the latter who appeared to have edged ahead as they raced past us but it looked desperately close on the line - it was no surprise to hear a dead-heat called. One grumble here - no names mentioned as I've seen this happen previously but in the ring beforehand one layer was continually flicking Sublime Talent's price on his digital board between 11/4 and 3/1. As he went 3/1 I struck my wager, only to find 11/4 the price quoted on my slip. Now, I must be getting old as I decided I wasn't going to argue the toss on a small stakes wager but this practice really does leave a bad taste.

Otherwise a most enjoyable day with excellent viewing from the roof of the Tatts stand. After racing a few pints followed in The Church Inn where ales from the local Ludlow Brewing Company were sampled and enjoyed.

Blessed with glorious weather, we had a marvellous day in the Shropshire countryside - I'd recommend it to anyone.

Brief thoughts on Saturday's jump cards

2011-10-21T20:52:00.004+01:00

Having only just returned from a(nother) losing day at Ludlow races (report to follow), I'm fortunate enough to have insufficient time to work on the form for tomorrow's meetings - as a result I have saved myself from identifying additional ways in which to lose even more child benefit allowance.

Whatever, much of the this evening's talk is around the BHA's 'tinkering' with the new whip rules. It would be fair to say that the changes have hardly been met with open arms, either by the jockeys or their professional association, the PJA. One rider who will be pleased with the BHA's decision is Christophe Soumillon as this evening he's likely to be around £52,000 better off.

Master Minded returns to action tomorrrow in the Monet's Garden Old Roan Chase at Aintree where the going is reported as good to soft, good in places. A fiield of just three is most disappointing; on paper the race looks a match between Paul Nicholls' charge and Albertas Run who receives ten pounds - on these terms there's little between the pair.

In the concluding maiden hurdle I'll keep an eye on Cinders And Ashes who ran well for a long way behind Cheltenian in the Festival bumper.

At Chepstow the Persian War Novices' Hurdle should prove useful for future reference. The one I'll monitor is Evan Williams' Charm School (rated 98 on the Flat). This gelding was bought out of John Gosden's yard after winning the November Handicap at Doncaster in 2009. In a recent Stable Tour article in the Weeknder, the handler indicated the key was teaching the horse to switch off in his races; he concludes, 'If we get it right, he could be a very smart recruit to hurdling.'

A few interesting runners in the Silver Trophy (4.15) including two chasers, The Giant Bolster and Robinson Collonges, who will be looking for a confidence-boosting run over hurdles. The former, who has done work with Yogi Breisner over the summer, sports first-time cheekpieces and has the Paddy Power Gold Cup as his target. Tim Vaughan's Architrave is a young horse with potential; he appeared to lose his way last season but later stomach ulcers were diagnosed and he comes here having had a pipe-opener at this course a fortnight ago over a trip short of his best.

The Nicholls pair Tataniano and Woolcombe Folly will be popular in the 4.50 but Gilbarry is the interesting one, having won the Future Champions Novices' Chase at Ayr in April. This is his first run for Jonjo O'Neill, having moved down from Malcolm Jefferson's yard over the summer.

At Stratford I wouldn't take a short price about Karasenir in the opener. Philip Hobbs' course and distance winner has won on his last two outings but they haven't been the most competitive of affairs and this looks a tougher test.

Broken rules and the Cheltenham Showcase

2011-10-14T21:02:00.007+01:00

There will be those who will say it could only happen here. On the eve of the richest day's racing ever staged in Britain, the headlines are of Richard Hughes' decision to hand in his licence after a second ban under the new whip rules and the possibility of a jockeys' strike which is set to take place on Monday.

Frankel is expected to do his bit to redress the balance in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (3.35 Ascot), a race in which course and distance winner Dick Turpin makes some each-way appeal at around 25/1 provided the eight start; Christophe Soumillon takes over from Richard Hughes who was originally booked to ride.

I'll concentrate on the second day of the Cheltenham Showcase meeting, looking for pointers for the future. Only nine declared for the feature ZEturf.com Trophy at 3.50 but it looks a trappy affair. Connections appear to be hoping for a good show from Benny Be Good who carries top weight but may well have a fitness advantage over market rivals Galaxy Rock, Chicago Grey and Balthazar King. Tim Vaughan's stable is in fine form (8 wins from 29 runs in past fortnight); of the two entries here Definite Dawn appears to have the best chance with a light weight but two wins at Cartmel and Fontwell indicate this is a big step up in class. Balthazar King is the one I like but his fitness is unknown so I won't get involved.

The winner of the opener is likely to come from amongst the Irish runners while I've seen Benbane Head touted more times than I care to recall in the past 12 months; he may take the 2.40 (trainer Martin Keighley won the Lemington Maiden Hurdle with Court In Session earlier today) but the price doesn't appeal. Evan Williams comments in the Weekender that this is likely to be Buck Mulligan's last race before being put away for the winter. This evening layers appear divided about the chances of front runner Billie Magern - Ladbrokes offer 12/1 while Coral go 11/2. This is the time of year for the Twiston-Davies yard but perhaps they've been quieter than in previous seasons. Billie Magern is likely to try and make all but doesn't jump as well as Ollie (Magern) used to; nevertheless I'll take an each-way interest at 12/1.

The 4.55 often throws up an interesting novice chaser and the presence of Zaynar (third behind Binocular in the 2010 Champion Hurdle) means this year's renewal will be no exception. Now with Nick Williams after some indifferent performances last year, the grey is unlikely to have things all his own way with another grey, Paul Nicholls' Toubab, in the field while Evan Williams' Lancetto was described in his schooling over fences as 'a bit hit and miss - in fact some were downright x-rated...' [Weekender] after arriving from Ireland. That said, the gelding jumped well for much of the trip when winning last time out at Newton Abbot, although the tendency to occasionally veer right at the obstacles won't serve his cause well here.

In the bumper filly Amber Cloud would represent a play against likely favourite Alexandr Nevsky.

Some Saturday suggestions

2011-10-07T20:07:00.002+01:00

Those who have followed the blog over the summer months will know I've concentrated on horses with jumps form racing over distances beyond one and a half miles on the Flat; several familiar names are entered up for tomorrow's Cesarewich which is run over two and a quarter miles at Newmarket and is due off at 3.50. Of the 34 declarations, 16 have some type of NH form to their name; they are listed below with brief comments:

Sentry Duty Not the easiest to catch right and IMO better with some cut. Sixth last year;
Veiled Tipped on the blog, took the Ascot Stakes at Royal Ascot in June. Every chance;
Keys In my mind not certain to see out this extended trip;
Dayia 80/1 (Coral) is a big price about Lady Green's brown mare but her best form has been with cut;
My Arch Eighth last year;
La Estrella Done most of his winning in races with no more than 12 runners;
Phoenix Flight Out of sorts after excellent third behind Veiled at Royal Ascot - Coral's 80/1 looks big;
Rainforest Magic Dermot Weld's runner is a potential blot on the handicap - respected;
Braveheart Move Yet to win beyond 13f;
Gifted Leader Laid out for this? 50/1 available;
Palomar Not without talent but for me is one that needs things to fall just right;
Right Stuff Finished last behind Gifted Leader last time out;
Beyond Trainer David Pipe's best chance in the race;
Abergavenny Billy Wallace (The Prophet) makes a case for this one in the Weekender;
Bow To No One Mare finished fourth in the Goodwood Stakes behind Hollins;
Tasheba Beaten over 25 lengths in a Fontwell handicap seven days ago.

General opinion is higher drawn horses are at something of a disadvantage as they will have to race wide around the bend. That being the case Beyond (stall 3) makes most appeal of the market leaders (14/1 with Ladbrokes at the time of writing). For those who must, two outsiders at an each-way price - Gifted Leader (50/1) and Phoenix Flight (80/1).

These days Chepstow's card doesn't get the coverage it once did but the clash between Cue Card and Silviniaco Conti should prove informative. I don't make a habit of betting novices on their first try over the larger obstacles but I prefer Silviniaco Conti, given he's won at the track previously. In the Weekender West Country correspondent Andrew King reports Nicholls' charge '...has been pleasing in his work at Manor Farm...' Others I fancied on this card have been marked up at rather short prices so I'll keep my powder dry. The going is reported as good to soft, good in places at the Welsh track.

Up at Hexham Chris Bealby's L'Eldorado looks a play against likely favourite Quite The Man in a competitive opener; Chris has a good word for the gelding in a post on his blog this evening.

Eclectic quick links

2011-09-25T20:35:00.004+01:00

Starting on a sad note with two racing obituaries... Ginger McCain, trainer of Red Rum and Michael Jarvis, 'one of the most popular figures in his sport'.

With new Natinal Hunt season just around the corner...

Betfred will sponsor the Cheltenham Gold Cup but Imperial Commander is out for the season.

Sizing Europe is set to make his seasonal debut at Gowran Park on Saturday.

Ferdy Murphy reports Kalahari King in the form of his life.

Noel Meade is waiting for the soft ground for Pandorama.

Trainer Patrick Prendergast is aiming for the Weatherby's Champion Bumper with Wandering Aengus.

Some might consider Nicky Richards' Noble Alan a winner without a penalty after the gelding unshipped Brian Harding two from home when holding every chance in the listed chase at Market Rasen yesterday.

Chris Bealby had a good word for point winner Chac du Cadran recently, describing his charge as 'capable of winning NH novice hurdles on soft ground'.

Saturday's Times Magazine (dated 24.09.11) features an article on Leon Max, the Russian clothing tycoon and owner of the Easton Neston estate in Northamptonshire which incorporates Towcester racecourse.

Finally, those who enjoyed the collection of photographs taken by Racing Post photographer Ed Whitaker in his book In The Frame may be interested to know a second volume, Beyond The Frame, has just been published -definitely has the look of potential Christmas present material!

Brief musings on tomorrow's Market Rasen meeting...

2011-09-23T20:43:00.001+01:00

A decent card at Market Rasen tomorrow with 16 set to face the starter for the totepool 'Prelude' Handicap Chase at 2.50. Peter Bowen has won three of the past five renewals and saddles North Island. Two that take my eye are top weight Qulinton and Charlie Longsdon's Ostland. The former hacked up over course and distance in the Summer Plate on his penultimate run but didn't really get competitive next time out in the Galway Plate. Ostland comes from a stable bang in form (5 wins from 9 runs since 6th September). Neptune Equester has been running well on the Flat and could be a blot on the handicap but his jumping has proved a cause for concern in the past. I'll take an each-way interest in Qulinton (11/1 with Coral this evening).

I tipped Tatispout last time at Stratford but the filly was shown a clean pair of heels by World Heritage. The four-year-old faces a tough task having to give weight to most of the field at 2.20 but World Heritage looks the one to beat in the 4.35, with a decent run expected from Bedouin Bay. The Juvenile Hurdle (4.00) is intriguing - Tim Vaughan won last year's renewal with Architrave while the year before Barizan took the spoils for Evan Williams. Both handlers have entries tomorrow; using the tissue as a guide, Captain Brown makes more appeal as a betting proposition and rates a play against likely favourite, the filly Hi Note.

Brief notes on selected Saturday races

2011-09-16T19:40:00.006+01:00

On Wednesday evening I spent well over an hour on the phone to a fellow racegoer discussing the chances of Tom Dascombe's Misty Conquest in the 2.45 at Ayr. Regular readers will know that six furlong two-year-old sprints aren't my cup of tea at all but the point is this racegoer knows two members of the syndicate that owns the filly. Costing £5,000 as a foal, Misty has already won £20,000 in prize money and boasts decent looking form behind Lily's Conquest in the listed Empress Stakes at Newmarket and Sajwah in the listed Dick Poole Fillies' Stakes at Salisbury.

Connections were reportedly disappointed with her penultimate run at Longchamp over seven furlongs on good to soft ground. Earlier in the season she wasn't eating well but now the feed has been changed she is fine. This looks a close call with Misty Conquest two pounds behind top-rated Kohala and one pound behind Miss Work Of Art on official ratings but the former has never raced over the trip while the latter has never won at this distance although she put in an eyecatching effort at York last time; jock Paul Hanagan clearly rates Miss Work Of Art's chance. The general feeling is Misty would show better form on good ground but her third at Newmarket was on good to soft; the going at Ayr is currently reported as soft, good to soft in places. All of which makes me rather ambivalent; the tissue prices Misty Conquest at 5/1 and that price doesn't really make that much appeal...

The feature long distance race tomorrow is Newmarket's Cesarewitch Trial at 3.30 - 10 of the 18 declared have some NH form to their name; the Cesarewitch is scheduled for Saturday 8th October.

At the moment Dayia looks high enough in the weights and would prefer cut underfoot. My Arch won the Pontefract Cup in June and has been kept busy since. Palomar raced off a mark of 136 in the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham in March but doesn't strike me as the easiest to catch right. Hollins finished well behind My Arch in the Pontefract Cup but on that occasion ran as though something was amiss when losing his place five furlongs out; he has since won the Goodwood Stakes at odds of 20/1 and merits respect here. I'm finding it hard to drum up enthusiasm for Gordonsville but Mohanad was rated 129 when finishing mid-division in the Coral Cup at this year's Cheltenham Festival. French Hollow takes a step up in class but is on a four-timer after winning with something in hand at Chester the last time. Secret Tune made a belated comeback at Newbury last month while Sea Change, once with Jeremy Noseda, has his second run for current connections, having had just two tries over hurdles for David Pipe. Dark Ranger was rated 108 over hurdles in April.

Suggestion: Hollins is interesting but I'm going to take an each-way chance with French Hollow at around the 10/1 mark.

Back at Ayr course and distance winner Chookie Hamilton makes slightly more appeal than Gogeo in the finale over 13 furlongs. No suggestion.

In the 4.55 at Catterick (14 furlongs) Danceintothelight likes to race prominently and beat Simple Jim some seven lengths here last year but the latter was conceding 20 pounds on that occasion and on revised ratings looks to have every chance of reversing the form, particularly if the ground stays good. Top weight Tropical Bachelor appeals as an each-way alternative with the jockey able to claim a handy-looking five pounds.

Suggestion: Simple Jim win (if ground good or quicker); each-way alternative: Tropical Bachelor.

Quick suggestions on St Leger Saturday

2011-09-09T19:26:00.002+01:00

Very quick suggestions for St Leger Day...

4/1 Blue Bunting for the Doncaster Classic (3.10) has disappeared but 7/2 still represents a value play against favourite Sea Moon.

Only six go in the Irish Field St Leger; 12/1 about Red Cadeaux would have made some each-way appeal if eight had made the line-up.

Tomorrow there are two long distances races with several NH types taking part. In the 8.20 at Kempton I'm going to take a small each-way interest in Katies Tuitor. This one obliged for my 50th birthday celebrations at Kempton when in the care of Brendan Duke and won the 2008 Totescoop6 Summer Handicap Hurdle at Market Rasen when trained by Charlie Mann..He's clearly had his problems but hinted at a return to form for current connections last time out; the gelding prefers racing right-handed and the stable are going well.

In the Bath 5.00 race Waldsee has fewer miles on the clock than some of these and rates a tentative each-way suggestion.

West Country memories

2011-09-04T20:38:00.005+01:00

Simon Nott's tribute to on-course bookmaker Brian Edwards in this month's Racing Ahead brought back a couple of memories. Brian, who traded as George Edwards Plymouth, died on 17th July after a long struggle with cancer. I struck a few bets with Brian at Newton Abbot and Devon & Exeter back in the early nineties, a time when I was green enough to think I might come out on top...

In particular I recall going to Newton Abbot one fine spring evening to back a horse called Biloxi Blues in the handicap chase. The grey had decent form in the book and, at a time when Mark Coton's Value Betting was all the rage, I thought I'd stumbled on a value bet and a bit more as the daily papers reported the price as 6/1. Finishing work early, I drove to the course but was more than a little dismayed to see the bookies open with Biloxi at 6/4. The price soon began to contract so, making the best of a bad job, I walked up to Brian and asked for a fiver at 11/8. Quick as a flash, he reported 7/5 to his clerk and I walked away, not quite sure whether I'd been done or not.

The race itself proved rather eventful... Dean Gallagher decided to try and make all on outsider Wimbleball and he quickly built up a lead of twenty lengths or so. Despite hitting a couple of fences fairly hard, Wimbleball was clearly enjoying himself and his lead was still intact halfway down the back straight second time around before Richard Dunwoody decided it was time to play catch-up on Biloxi. Wimbleball wasn't for stopping and had the race in the bag coming to the last but he took one last liberty with that last fence and came crashing to the ground; Dunwoody carried out a nifty piece of steering, jumped the obstacle safely and 5/4 favourite Biloxi Blues collected the spoils. Brian's face told its own story immediately after the race; a couple of punters looking to collect before the winning jockey had dismounted were given short shrift.

Some 15 years later I was at Exeter with two brothers-in-law for the 2004 New Year's Day meeting. We hadn't been that successful but my companions had compensated by indulging in several of their favourite beverages. Waiting for the free bus home, my colleagues asked for an opinion on the concluding bumper. Philip Hobbs' Supreme Serenade was odds-on but I ventured they might want to consider opposing with Paul Nicholls' Alexanderthegreat; this conversation took place outside a couple of ptiches, one of which belonged to Brian. Brian appeared to be in conversation with his fellow layer but as soon as he heard me mention Alexanderthegreat, he immediately marked the horse out from 5/1 to 11/2. I started to smile but these subtle nuances escaped my inebriated colleagues who then demanded an explanation. I tried but it was proving hard work and at the end of it all one brother-in-law walks straight up to the layer offering 5/1 and strikes his bet...

In the event, Nicky Henderson's Copsale Lad (3/1) won impressively from Alexanderthegreat. Copsale Lad did me a couple of favours after that and some three years later popped up at Newbury at odds of 14/1. Unfortunately on that occasion I'd bid more than I should have for a day at the races with The Times' Alan Lee and he'd tipped me the second, Minella Tipperary...

R.I.P. Brian Edwards.

Two tentative suggestions for Musselburgh, one for Stratford

2011-09-02T17:09:00.006+01:00

Tomorrow two Musselburgh races will be run over one mile five furlongs with several horses boasting some sort of NH form; the Scottish Racing Stayers' Consolation Handicap at 4.45 precedes the Scottish Racing Stayers' Final at 5.15. The going is reported as good, good to soft in places.

In the Consolation Handicap, the following runners have some previous NH form:
Ananda Kanda, Pokfulham, Stags Leap, Amir Pasha, Grand Daimond, Grandad Bill, Dane Cottage, Red Skipper.

Ananda Kanda, rated 67, appears to like cut underfoot and was a staying-on third in a Market Rasen novices' hurdle on her penultimate run. Earlier this year Pokfulham won a Perth intermediate hurdle over two and a half miles before finishing out with the washing in the Swinton at Haydock; the bay gelding disappointed last time but the visor, left off on that occasion, is refitted here so Jim Goldie's charge is of interest. Stags Leap has shown better form on his last two runs for this yard although the fact he was walked to post last time suggests he's not entirely straightforward. Amir Pasha has won a Carlisle intermediate hurdle and has form behind speed merchant Santa's Son but was worn down at Redcar just two days ago. On his penultimate run Grand Diamond, another from the Jim Goldie yard, finished second to Peter Bowen's well regarded mare With Grace who has won six of her thirteen starts. Jim Goldie also trains likely favourite Grandad Bill who won on the Flat at Ayr last month before finishing behind Los Nadis in a class 3 handicap hurdle at Perth. Dane Cottage was beaten on the all-weather last time but Red Skipper bounced back to take a Market Rasen seller at odds of 15/2. Grandad Bill is respected in a competitive affair but the suggestion is Pokfulham each-way at around 8/1.

In the Final the following horses have NH form:
Meetings Man, Jewelled Dagger, The Galloping Shoe, Los Nadis, Mason Hindmarsh, Jonny Delta.

Meetings Man was rated 122 when unseating Graham Lee in the Scottish Triumph Hurdle here in February; he races off a mark of 78 and the jockey can claim another five pounds. Course and distance winner Jewelled Dagger likes to race from the front but disappointed at Doncaster the last time. The Galloping Shoe has better form over shorter trips but Los Nadis is a horse I like - I was annoyed to have missed his last run in a Perth handicap hurdle where he won with Grandad Bill well behind in third. After winning a juvenile hurdle at Aintree Mason Hindmarsh didn't cut the mustard in a Triumph Hurdle trial at Cheltenham won by Sam Winner; he would be of some interest at a price, a comment that also applies to Jonny Delta whose seventh in the Aintree bumper in April reads well - some well-regarded types were behind on that occasion.
Suggestion: Jonny Delta each-way 14/1 or bigger.

A very quick note on Stratford's opening novice hurdle. Course and distance winner Tatispout carries penalties but this filly sets a reasonable standard with a rating of 130. Last year Russian George took this off 117, beating Saltagioo (128) a short-head. Later tonight I'll check ratings for other recent winners but at this stage Tatispout is of interest coming to this fresh; on her last run she finished down the field in the Swinton at Haydock.

Cartmel considerations

2011-08-26T20:02:00.002+01:00

After a very quick glance at tomorrow's Flat cards, the only entry I can see with NH form running over more than 12 furlongs is Drunken Sailor in the opener at Goodwood. Back in 2008 the bay took a Gowran Park maiden hurdle and has gone on to considerably better things since. Luca Cumani's course and distance winner has an obvious chance in the small field but at around even money doesn't make much appeal as a betting proposition.

So, here are some brief notes on the jumpers at Cartmel, where the going is currently reported good to soft, good in places.

Only four in the first which on paper looks a match between Stonethrower and Sara's Smile. The two trainers concerned have exceptional strike rates in the past fortnight - Tim Vaughan (Stonethrower) - 16 wins from 41 runs (39.02%); Donald McCain (Sara's Smile) - 6 wins from 15 runners (40%). Stonethrower's jock claims a handy-looking seven pounds but the gelding has done most of his racing over further...

The highlights are the class 3 Cavendish Cup, a handicap chase, at 3.20 and the Cartmel Cup, a handicap hurdle, at 4.15 . Only four declared for the chase in which course and distance winner Foxesbow will be an odds-on chance. Seize sports first time blinkers but was beaten a distance here by Foxesbow in July. The handicap hurdle looks an altogether more competitive affair. Front Rank bids to take this for the third consecutive year but at the age of 11 faces a stiff task. Jockey F. Keniry has won twice on The Tiddly Tadpole in recent weeks; five pound claimer Henry Brooke gets the leg-up tomorrow while Keniry rides Gary Moore's Guy D'Arnac. I'll take a small each-way interest in The Tiddly Tadpole if priced up 10/1 or bigger.

Finally, trainer A E Jones' two runners, Temple Place and Murfreesboro, catch the eye in the finale, having made the journey up from Timberscombe, Somerset.

Notes on some of Saturday's runners...

2011-08-19T16:54:00.003+01:00

Horses with previous NH form running in Flat races over a distance of more than one and a half miles this Saturday...

York 3.05 Lonsdale Cup (2m):
Blue Bajan, Bergo, Elyaadi.

Blue Bajan, beaten a head and a neck into third in the Goodwood Cup (Bergo a couple more lengths away in fifth), is three pounds better off with winner Opinion Poll who took this event last year. The mare Elyaddi, second in the Queen Alexandra Stakes at Royal Ascot, will appreciate cut underfoot, a comment that also applies to Harris Tweed, but has plenty to find on official ratings. That was a fine effort by Bergo on his seasonal reappearance but the 'bounce' factor is a worry and he's shown his best form on top of the ground.
Suggestion: Blue Bajan win.

York 3.40 Ebor Handicap (1m 6f):
Salute Him, Cill Rialaig, Investissement, Hillview Boy.

As you'd expect, an ultra-competitive handicap. This race has seen some big-priced winners in recent times - Mediterranean 16/1 2001; Hugs Dance 25/1 2002; Saint Alebe 20/1 2003; Mudawin 100/1 2006 and Sesenta 25/1 2009. In the past decade no horse over the age of six has won the event. Irish runner Salute Him, an eight-year-old, was fifth in this last year and makes some each-way appeal at 25/1 but Hillview Boy hasn't been seen since finishing ninth last year - are connections plotting a cunning coup? Investissement may have been a little flattered when finishing third behind Petara Bay at Goodwood the last time and doesn't look the easiest of rides. Cill Rialaig has an Exeter bumper over 13 furlongs on soft ground to her name so Hughie Morrison's mare should stay the trip here. Both Betfred and totesport pay five places on this race.
Suggestion: Salute Him each way.

Chester 4.10 Chester Stakes (1m 5f):
No qualifiers.

Chester 5.15 (1m 7f):
Amazing King, Lastroseofsummer, French Hollow, Calisto Moon, Hallstaff

Amazing King ran well at this course last time and should appreciate both the going and the step-up in trip having previously won a Southwell beginners' chase over two miles. Lastroseofsummer is a front-running mare who is in very good form at the moment while French Hollow won at 66/1 on his penultimate run and has gone in again since but is one who likes to come from off the pace. Callisto Moon has tried his luck with several trainers and has plenty of miles on the clock but Halstatt is eight pounds better off with French Hollow and was hampered in running in that race. An open event which has seen four of the last five winners carry more than 9-5 to victory - I'll chance Amazing King.
Suggestion: Amazing King each-way (8/1 or bigger).

Bath 8.10 (1m 5f)
A poor grade 6 handicap in which several runners have previous NH form. Michael Scudamore's Red Current would be worth a second look but only at a price.
No suggestion.

Those waiting for the return of the jumpers may want to note Perth's 3.45, the Scottish Hydro Summer Champion Hurdle, for future reference. Overturn takes his chance but he's likely to have a fight for the lead with Paul Webber's Australia Day in the line-up. Irish course and distance winners Brave Beauty and Now This Is It catch the eye - the latter finished second in a race at the Galway Festival but isn't certain to be suited by the step back in trip.

Holiday happenings

2011-08-14T19:20:00.004+01:00

A short post after a wet week's holiday in west Wales...

Howard Johnson has been banned from racing for four years following a BHA disciplinary inquiry; quoting Alan Lee in Saturday's Times, Johnson was judged '...to have shown "reckless disregard of equine welfare" in running a horse, Striking Article, eight times after an operation to desensitise a leg.' The decision spells the end of the trainer's career. Johnson's main owner Graham Wylie had previously moved six horses to Paul Nicholls' yard and has indicated he will consider his involvement in the sport over the weekend.

Comedian Jarred Christmas may have played The Queens Hall, Narbeth, but a couple of racing connections popped up while I was perambulating in Pembrokeshire... I discovered that famous author and jockey Dick Francis was born at Coedcanlas, Lawrenny, while a number of racing-related items are to be found on the walls of The Cresselly Arms at Cresswell Quay. This hostelry wouldn't necessarily be everyone's cup of tea but its lack of pretence and accompanying memorabilia were right up my street. In recent years several horses have carried the name Cresswell (including Cresswell Quay), many of them owned by Mr Bruce McKay and trained nearby by Keith Goldsworthy. I was particularly pleased to come across a picture of Hills Of Aran (McCoy up) as I tipped this one at Cheltenham's New Year's Day meeting in 2008 and managed to avail myself of 14/1 offered by Fred Done. In the ensuing three and a half years I have tried on several occassions to repeat the stunt - but with no further success.

Brief notes on Saturday's stayers

2011-08-04T17:09:00.007+01:00

Four Flat races over more than twelve furlongs on Saturday; brief notes on runners with some NH form to their name...

Ascot 1.25 (Shergar Cup Stayers Handicap, 2m.)
Both Dayia and Phoenix Flight ran well at Royal Ascot but both finished last on their next run so caution is advised. Woolfall Treasure is taking time to come to hand this term; in contrast La Vecchia Scuola hinted at a return to some kind of form in the John Smith's Silver Cup at York. Dayia won't want conditions too quick but the mare has been dropped four pounds for her latest effort and would make some each-way appeal if the rain arrives. Suggestion: La Vecchia Scuola each-way.

Newmarket 4.50 (Red Lion Foods Handicap, 2m.)
Having won a Fontwell handicap hurdle in May, Lastroseofsummer has been in sparkling form, taking two Flat handicaps in July and she bids for the hat-trick here. Rae Guest's mare is likely to head the betting while Philip Hobbs' grey Zakatal, owned by Mr Terry Warner, will be challenging for favourtism. I'm tempted to take an each-way chance on the only other runner with NH form, Ambrose Princess. Michael Scudamore's mare was well in contention when coming to grief in a Worcester novices' chase last time but prior to that won over three miles at Southwell. Suggestion: Ambrose Princess each-way.

Redcar 5.10 (1m 6f.)
Half the field have some jumps form to their name (Zefooha, Heart Of Dubai, Spahi, Strikemaster, Seven Stars, Lisbon Lion, Haka Dancer and Carmelia Maria) but this looks a poor race. No suggestion.

Ayr 8.10 (1m 7f.)
Course and distance winner Tillietudlem has been busy of late; although the grey gelding finished sixth of the seven runners three days ago, he was beaten under two and a half lengths and merits respect in first time cheekpieces. Stablemate Circus Clown really catches the eye, having run well in the past in Class 3 handicap hurdles both here and at Perth. Rated 113 over the sticks, he must surely have a chance in this off a mark of 47 with jockey Shane Kelly able to claim an extra five pounds. The worry appears to be underfoot conditions as all his best form is on soft / heavy ground. Terenzium has plenty of miles on the clock but has been running well of late while Morning Time hasn't won in 11 attempts since coming over from Ireland a year or so ago. Clueless last won in 2005 and Ancient Times remains a maiden. Suggestion: Circus Clown win.

Saturday selections

2011-07-28T21:40:00.004+01:00

Just two Flat races beyond 12 furlongs on Saturday - Goodwood's Toyo Tires Summer Stakes at 2.35 and the Glenridding Handicap at Thirsk (4.45).

Three have previous NH form in the Goodwood race - Sentry Duty, Investissement and Woolfall Treasure. I tipped up Investissement for this year's Northumberland Plate but the gelding ran out of steam up Newcastle's long home straight; having previously won here over this shorter trip, John Gosden's charge, formerly with Evan Williams, remains of interest. Fallon is booked for the ride on Sentry Duty - in the Weekender the jock says Nicky Hendserson's charge 'would have a decent each-way chance' but I always think Sentry Duty shows his best form with cut underfoot. Woolfall Treasure made a belated seasonal reappearance in the John Smith's Silver Cup at York three weeks ago. That day he went off at odds of 66/1; this course and distance winner looks sure to come on for that run but is probably best watched here. In the tissue Investissement is priced at 14/1 and would merit each-way support at that price. Of the other runners Petara Bay, owned by Bernie Ecclestone, caught the eye when a staying-on fourth in the Northumberland Plate at 40/1 - the gelding is unlikely to start that price on Saturday.

At Thirsk 10 of the12 runners have previous NH form. Top weight Los Nadis, rated 126 over hurdles, looks to be returning to form and is of interest; having said that, no favourite has taken this in the past seven renewals. Bulwark has been off the track for 20 months and Into The Light reamins a maiden but Andorn merits respect with a win strike rate of 25%. Gary Moore's team is in decent form - two run here - but if Los Nadis turns up with his A game, he should be thereabouts. Suggestion - Los Nadis.

Looking back...and looking forward

2011-07-24T19:02:00.004+01:00

A dramatic renewal of the King George this year with Nathaniel's victory overshadowed by Rewilding breaking a leg as he started his challenge up the home straight and having to be put down as a result of the injury. In difficult circumstances both winning jockey William Buick and trainer John Gosden spoke eloquently to camera immediately after the race, paying tribute to the Godolphin runner. At the time of writing Nathaniel is 8/1 for the Arc. Last year's Arc winner Workforce looked the likely winner of this year's King George until he veered badly off a straight line in the final furlong, hanging left and going down by two and threequarter lengths. Since the laying of the new course and the building of the new stand at Ascot, I have previously seen some horses hang towards the stands rails in a similar fashion, particularly when the sun casts a shadow over the track. I guess connections will be at a loss to explain this running; Workforce is a 7/1 chance with Coral to win this year's Arc.

Here's my interpretation of the King George tactics... The word beforehand was Debussy would set a honest, even gallop but in the event he did nothing of the sort. Ahmed Ajtebi took his mount to the front and then promptly but the brakes on. With Rewilding settled at the back, I'm assuming the plan was to make opposing jockeys, particularly Ryan Moore on Workforce and William Buick on Nathaniel, restrain their mounts and thereby waste valuable energy. Full marks to Buick who quickly adapted to circumstances and let his mount stride on. For the spectator, though, it led to a messy race.

One final note from Ascot... During TV coverage Clare Balding told viewers that Willie Carson had received a strong tip for 40/1 chance Palace Moon in the International Stakes. In the event the gelding was declared a non-runner but might be worth a second look if seen out in the next couple of weeks.

Two meetings to monitor in the coming week - Glorious Goodwood (Tuesday - Saturday) with the much anticpated clash between Frankel and Canford Cliffs set to take place in the Sussex Stakes on Wednesday and the Galway Summer Festival (Monday - Sunday) with the Galway Plate scheduled for Wednesday and the Guinness Galway Hurdle for Thursday.

Finally, it's been a fair week's work for golf agent Andrew 'Chubby' Chandler. This time last week Chubby was interviewed on BBC TV as Darren Clarke collected the 2011 Open Championship at Royal St George's, Sandwich. Six days later and Chubby was amongst the winners once again as his Hoof It, owned in partnership with golfer Lee Westwood, landed York's six furlong Sky Bet Dash with something in hand. Connections now have Saturday's Stewards' Cup firmly in their sights...; this evening Hoof It is the 7/1 favourite with most layers.

King George day at Ascot

2011-07-22T20:53:00.003+01:00

Only five go in the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot tomorrow but it looks particularly intriguing. On ratings, there's little to choose between Workforce and Rewilding while Coolmore has surprised many by putting up trainer's son Joseph O'Brien on St Nicholas Abbey. Nathaniel has course and distance winning form and has been supplemented at a cost of £75,000; Debussy is set to act as pacemaker for Rewilding. Over the week the market has changed significantly with Workforce now a clear favourite following a favourable gallop at Newmarket on Sunday. Rewilding, with Ascot specialist Dettori in the plate, has to be the value; William Hill offered 7/2 until early afternoon but now go 3/1; 100/30 is generally available. Connections think they have found the answer to the colt's apparent inconsistency last season - he needs a break between races. Workforce flopped badly in this last year, leading some to question whether he disliked the track; trainer Sir Michael Stoute is on record saying his charge is in much better shape this year. A fascinating renewal - Rewilding gets the nod.

Continuing with a theme (Keys went in again (4/5f) earlier this afternoon), horses with NH form running over more than 12 furlongs tomorrow include:

4.05 Newcastle - Tillietudlem, Jeu De Roseau, Summerlea, Falcun, Hi Dancer, Strikemaster and Follow The Sun. Tillietudum has won novice hurdles at Perth, Bangor and Ayr by racing from the front. Jeu De Roseau has Towcester and Sedgefield handicap hurdles to his name and was beaten less than five lengths by Tillietudlem at Catterick last time; they look closely matched on the revised terms. Summerlea has his second run for new connections, having finished mid-division in a Punchestown maiden hurdle in October 2009. Falcun didn't look suited to the jumping game with two undistinguished runs in maiden hurdles; his latest run hints he may benefit from this trip after staying on well over 14 furlongs at Redcar the last time. Hi Dancer won a Sedgefield handicap hurdle off 108 in March at odds of 25/1. Strikemaster boasts little NH form of note but Follow The Sun has won a Southwell two mile handicap chase. Tillietudlem, Jeu De Roseau and Falcun are of interest - Falcun is a tentative suggestion.

4.45 York - Bow To No One, Simonside and Profit's Reality. Bow To No One has run of the mill novice hurdle form over two miles that dates back to March/April this year. The mare finished second to 66/1 winner French Hollow at this course two weeks ago and on the back of that effort looks likely to go off the market leader; Spiekeroog made up plenty of ground to finish fourth that day and may well have improved for the run. Simonside was a Market Rasen bumper winner in 2007, won over course and distance last September and won his penultimate start at Ayr. Profit's Reality has raced 64 times with just the one start over hurdles at Bangor in August 2008. Bow To No One is of most interest; Simonside may find one or two too good in this Class 3 event.

6.15 Lingfield - eight of the ten runnners have NH form; Dream Catcher has won over hurdles but has been generally disappointing. No suggestion.

8.10 Salibury - Tropical Batchelor is the only one with jumps form but is of interest on the back of his close fourth at Haydock last week. The winner of the Haydock race, Spirit Of A Nation, goes in York's 4.45 (see above) and may provide a pointer to Tropical Batchelor's chance. Reg Hollinshead's Drawn Gold finished fifth at Haydock but reopposes on two pounds worse terms as the jockey isn't a claimer. Tropical Batchelor looks to represent a reasonable each-way shout (10/1 or bigger) on his third start of the season after a long layoff.

Weekend musings

2011-07-17T20:29:00.004+01:00

Earlier today Blue Bunting made amends for her Epsom disappointment by taking the Irish Oaks while Workforce delighted connections in a Newmarket gallop and looks on course for a clash with St Nicholas Abbey and Rewilding in Saturday's King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot. This evening Betfred bets 11/10 St Nicholas Abbey, 2/1 Rewilding, 11/4 Workforce; William Hill offers 11/10 St Nicholas Abbey, 5/2 Workforce, 11/4 Rewilding.

They went hard up front in the Summer Plate at Market Rasen, with the result several were struggling on the second circuit. Much as it pains me, I am obliged to report the mother-in-law took one look at the TV two minutes before the off and selected Qulinton; the wretched beast landed the spoils in what can only be described as a very convincing manner. Gutted. With gloating still ringing in my ears, I can report this evening that Stan James offers a miserly-looking 8/1 about David Pipe's charge for the Galway Plate on 27th July while Boylesports quotes 16/1. I wonder if connections are intending to make the trip over the Irish Sea...

Bookshelf notes - The Story of Your Life: A History of "The Sporting Life" Newspaper (1859-1988) looks a must for serious sports fans (currently £17.04 with free P&P from Amazon). Having enjoyed Nicholas Foulkes' Gentlemen and Blackguards: Gambling Mania and the Plot to Steal the Derby of 1844, I was tempted by D J Taylor's Derby Day, marketed as 'a Victorian mystery'; two contrasting reader reviews have made me think again. One tome I will purchase in the near future is The Form Book Jumps Annual 2010-2011 (£21.99).

Finally, if you follow football, Monday night's Dispatches on Channel 4 may be of interest; it's entitled 'How To Buy a Football Club'.

Quick Saturday suggestions

2011-07-15T23:08:00.003+01:00

Presssed for time this evening, so quick notes only. The Summer Plate is the highlight at Market Rasen; no horse has carried more than 11-6 to victory in the past decade, a stat that knocks out seven of the 16 declared. Peter Bowen has a good record in this; of his pair course and distance winner North Island is preferred. Suggestion: North Island (13/2); unexposed each-way alternative: Pilgrims Lane (16/1).

2.40 Market Rasen: each-way suggestion - Little O J around tissue price 12/1.

5.10 Newbury: Of the runners with NH form (Raslan, Keys, Addwaitya and Callisto Moon) Keys is the most interesting. His short head defeat of Cinders And Ashes in a Cheltenham bumper on New Year's Day (14 furlongs) reads well; Cinders And Ashes went on to run fifth in the Triumph Hurdle. He has been slightly disappointing since and keeps the blinkers tried last time. Doesn't look a certainty to stay the trip.

8.10 Haydock: Only two with NH form, Advisor and Tropical Batchelor; Advisor is of interest. Sent off 8/1 for the 2010 Triumph Hurdle, the grey finished down the field in 11th behind Soldatino. His last run, fifth behind Gifted Leader at Sandown, looks reasonable as that one ran second to subsequent Ascot Stakes winner Veiled in May.

Ladies' days

2011-07-10T19:43:00.007+01:00

Here's a quick round-up of the ladies who have been making the news over the past few days...

Hayley Turner had a lucky escape on Friday morning when the two-year-old filly Jessica Ennis, part owned by the World and European Heptathlon Champion after whom she is named, bolted during a routine stalls test and was then involved in a collision with a car in Newmarket.

An article published in the Metro that same morning saw Turner joined by weighing room colleagues Laura Pike and Sophie Doyle to publicise the first ever Flat race for female jockeys only which has been scheduled to take place at Carlisle's evening meeting on Monday 1st August.

Friday afternoon and Ladies Are Forever took the Group 3 Summer Stakes at York...

And a day later Turner was in the headlines once again, winning her first Group One aboard the David Simcock trained Dream Ahead.

Unfortunately there was no happy ending for the England women's football team after Faye White's penalty miss against France consigned her colleagues to a World Cup quarter final defeat, a fate similar to that suffered by England's male counterparts in the past...

And finally... One lady who has made more news than most this past week is former News Of The World editor and current News International chief executive Rebekah Brooks. It's only over the past few days that I've realised Ms Brooks, once married to Ross Kemp (aka Grant Mitchell from EastEnders I have just been informed), is presently hitched to former jockey and racehorse trainer, now turned author and journalist, Charlie Brooks. Small world, isn't it?

Long distance information?

2011-07-08T20:04:00.004+01:00

Regular readers will know that during this Flat season I'm trying to concentrate on horses with NH form running in races beyond one and a half miles. Two recent results caught my eye - in Doncaster's opener last night Sendali (5/1), second in an Aintree handicap hurdle on his penultimate run, beat Heart Of Dubai (13/2), winner of a Cartmel novice hurdle last month, while earlier this afternoon French Hollow, winner of a Market Rasen bumper two years ago, took York's one and three quarter mile Global Trading UK Responsible Packaging Handicap at odds of 66/1. Needless to say, I backed none of the aforementioned beasts.

Two long distance races tomorrow - York's John Smith's Silver Cup at 2.40 (not to be confused with the John Smith's Cup run at the same venue some 35 minutes later) and Chester's toteswinger Handicap which is due off at four o'clock.

Twenty are declared for the Silver Cup; the going is currently reported to be good. The Betchworth Kid finished tailed off behind Fame And Glory in the Ascot Gold Cup last time; this listed handicap represents an easier task. Alan King's gelding has his share of weight here; fourth in Newbury's totesport Hurdle reads well - he subsequently finished down the field in Sandown's Imperial Cup three weeks later before bouncing back to take a 14 furlong listed Flat race at Nottingham. Woolfall Treasure, once owned by Harry Findlay, was rated 128 over hurdles and finished down the field in the 2009 renewal of the Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. He is potentially very interesting if fit enough on this seasonal debut but there's a suspicion connections might be using this as a prep for the forthcoming Glorious Goodwood meeting. La Vecchia Scuola has been out of form this term. Of the other runners, it's worth casting an eye over the Northumberland Plate form and remembering that Her Majesty The Queen's Tactician was withdrawn from that race on account of the ground. Rock A Doodle Doo heads the market and has been tipped up by several commentators; the winner has come from the top two in the market on four occasions in the past five years. The Betchworth Kid isn't the most consistent of performers but Coral stands out with a quote of 33/1 this evening; The Betchworth Kid is the each-way suggestion.

Ten of the five day entries for Chester's toteswinger Handicap had form over the sticks (including former Philip Hobbs charge Comedy Act and earlier York winner French Hollow) but only two make the final cut - Descaro and Beat The Shower. The former has hurdling form in Ireland as well as England and was beaten just under six lengths by Tim Easterby's game mare Bollin Judith last time at York; Descaro re-opposes five pounds better off tomorrow and on tonight's tissue price (12/1) offers better value - first time cheekpieces last time are replaced by a first time visor here. Beat The Shower won a Hexham handicap hurdle last summer; that day the gelding came from behind to stay on and take the spoils - that style of running isn't best served by this tight track. I shall take an each-way interest in Descaro.

Sitting comfortably?

2011-07-03T20:37:00.003+01:00

Following the well-publicised brawl at Royal Ascot Ladies' Day, Giles Smith penned a skit in The Times dated Saturday 25th June in which he compared racing hooliganism to football hooliganism, concluding, somewhat tongue-in-cheek, that the recent trouble at Ascot can lead to only one thing: 'all-seater racecourses'. That brought a smile - the number of times I've been on a racecourse, thinking what I'd give for a decent sit-down, never mind a winner; I guess I must be getting older.

Another Giles writing for The Times, this time Giles Coren (how many Gileses do The Times actually have on their books?), posted a piece in this Saturday's paper (July 2nd) after having the misfortune to be seated on the end of a row on a visit to Wimbledon.

Mr Coren observes, 'Tennis fans may all think they're pretty marvellous...but they haven't got the first idea how to behave compared with football fans.' I empathise with the author who clearly spent the whole afternoon shifitng around in his seat to allow assorted old buffers and 'rickety old dears' access to their seats without so much as one single word of thanks; on the other hand when football fans '...slide past you to go and get a pie or stab a copper they always, without fail, say "cheers mate"'.

Giles concludes he knows which he prefers and I think I'm with him on this one. After all that talk of sitting around, I'm going for a lie-down.

Eclipse day 2011

2011-07-01T17:03:00.002+01:00

Just five runners in tomorrow's Eclipse, the race billed in most quarters as a match between Australian superstar So You Think and last year's Derby and Arc winner Workforce. During the week the latter has been easy to back on account of the form of Sir Michael Stoute's stable; Class Is Class won the listed Ambant Gala Stakes earlier this afternoon to give the yard its first winner since June 11th. Confront is in the line-up to act as a pacemaker for Workforce while Snow Fairy will be expected to come on for her first run of the season and Sri Putra, second in this last year, appears to have a bit to find on the book but, as connections point out, the race will be run to suit. A race to savour I think; if I have a bet, I'll side with Workforce on grounds of value - at the time of writing William Hill offers 7/4.

In the Coral Marathon at 3.40 Flying Cross has his first run for the Gosden yard, having finished third in the Irish St Leger on his last visit to a racecourse. On official ratings the colt has nine pounds and upwards in hand over tomorrow's rivals and for that reason is priced up 2/1 favourite with the sponsors. Just two in the field have NH form in the book - Sentry Duty and Dayia. Fallon rides Sentry Duty for Nicky Henderson but Sentry Duty is a gelding for whom things have to fall just right - he has shown his best form when there has been cut underfoot. Course and distance winner Dayia ran a blinder to finish fourth in the Queen Alexandra Stakes at Royal Ascot a fortnight ago - that was the first time we'd seen Lady Green's brown mare since she had finished down the field in last season's Cesarewitch. There may be improvement to come for that seasonal debut and although she has plenty to find with several in the field, Dayia rates a sporting each-way chance at around the 16/1 mark.

Talking horses

2011-06-26T20:07:00.007+01:00

Carlton House was sent off 5/4 favourite for the Irish Derby earlier today but The Queen's colt could only finish fourth, Aidan O'Brien training the first three home - Treasure Beach (7/2) beat stablemates Seville (5/1) and Memphis Tennessee (10/1) to give the Irish handler his ninth victory in the race. This evening Paddy Power bet on the Ladbrokes St Leger as follows: 3/1 Nathaniel, 5/1 Treasure Beach, 6/1 Brown Panther, 8/1 Sea Moon, 10/1 Memphis Tennessee, 12/1 Seville.

I was out and about Saturday lunchtime when I received a phone call from a fellow racegoer I see at the races once or twice a year. He'd had a word from one of the owners of Misty Conquest who was due to run in the listed Empress Stakes at Newmarket. 14 had been declared but at the time of the call one had been withdrawn; Tom Dascombe's filly had been priced up 5/1 second favourite in a couple of the morning papers. Six furlong sprints aren't my cup of tea and a few in the field looked well fancied, including Queen's Revenge and My Propeller, owned by Newcastle footballer Joey Barton; last time out this one had won a six furlong Pontefract madien by an astonishing 17 lengths. After some consideration I decided not to play. When Channel 4 showed the race preliminaries, another two had fallen by the wayside (including My Propeller) and Misty Conquest was priced at 10/1. In the event, she knew her job, broke well, led to half way, eventually coming home third; she had no answer to the strong challenge of Lily's Angel (6/1) who won a shade more cosily than the distances might suggest and looks a smart prospect.

The Jamie Snowden trained 11-year-old Knighton Combe took this afternoon renewal of Uttoxeter's English Summer National at odds of 16/1.

Martin Waller (Tempus) penned an interesting piece in Saturday's Times under the headline 'No such thing as a dead cert for investors in online gaming'. Betfair is shortly set to release its first set of annual figures since the company's flotation; shares issued at £13 last autumn were worth just £7.43 at close of business on Friday evening.

Finally Will Hayler's blog in Saturday's Guardian highlighted Channel 4 presenter Lesley Graham's attempt to generate more interest in her nine bedroom Newmarket mansion which she is looking to sell following the collapse of her marriage to Neil; a piece appeared in the property section of Wednesday's London Evening Standard. Back in March A.P. McCoy's house was on the market for £2.5 million but unfortunately the property was sold before I could arrange a meeting with my mortgage adviser. By comparison Ms Graham's pad looks a snip at just £1.4 million but I won't bother trying to contact my adviser as I happen to know he's on holdiay for a fortnight...

Northumberland Plate 2011

2011-06-24T17:07:00.006+01:00

Prior to last year's running of the Northumberland Plate I wrote:

"Recently a number of long distance races on the Flat have gone the way of horses with form over the sticks - Mamlook took the Chester Cup in May, while Junior won the Ascot Stakes and Bergo the Queen Alexandra Stakes at Royal Ascot last week. The start of a trend? Probably not..."

Twelve months on, perhaps there is something of a trend.... Last year's Plate winner Overturn took this year's Chester Cup while Veiled won the Ascot Stakes and Swingkeel the Queen Alexandra Stakes, all horses with jumps form in the book. Digging a little deeper, I discovered that between the years 1994 and 2001, no winner of the Pitmen's Derby had previously run over the sticks; from 2002 onwards, five of the subsequent nine winners had National Hunt form (Bangalore 2002, Unleash 2003, Mirjan 2004, Arc Bleu 2008 and Overturn 2010).

Regular readers will know that this Flat term I'm trying to focus on horses with jumps form racing over more than one and a half miles; two Royal Ascot winners last week were supplemented by My Arch (8/1) taking the Pontefract Cup on Sunday while Kavaloti (11/10f) collected a class 6 handicap on the all-weather at Kempton on Wednesday evening.

The horses with jumps form declared for Newcastle's Northumberland Plate tomorrow are Overturn, Investissement, La Vecchia Scuola and first reserve Crackentorp who may yet line up as Her Majesty's horse, Tactitian, is rated doubtful this evening. Although this is a two mile race, a low draw is seen as important - in the past decade four winners have raced out of a stall numbered higher than nine, with Eddie Ahern performing miracles last year on Overturn who broke from stall 21. Donald McCain's charge missed last weeks' Queen Alexandra Stakes on account of the ground, has a plum draw in stall two but is rated thirteen pounds higher this year - Henry Brooke can claim five. It's worth noting that only one horse has carried more than 8-11 to victory in the last decade - Bangalore won with 9-5 in 2002. John Gosden's Investissement is another with a good draw (berth three) and looks interesting, having had this as his target for a while; previously with Evan Williams, the Singspiel gelding didn't take to hurdling, finishing tailed off in the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham. Jim Goldie trains bay mare La Vecchia Scuola who is another with a good draw (stall 4) but has been out of sorts since her second in last season's Cesarewitch at Newmarket; on her last run over hurdles she finished over 30 lengths behind Quevega in the David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. My Arch took the Pontefract Cup on Sunday but is drawn widest of all in stall 22 while Tim Easterby's Crackentorp finished third behind the useful Storm Brig in a Newcastle novice hurdle last November.

Of the other runners, Activate's Haydock win last month catches the eye, with Swingkeel (sixth) and My Arch (seventh) both having won since - Deauville Flyer, another from Tim Easterby's yard, was fourth that day, suffering interference in running around two furlongs out, and probably represents that trainer's best chance.

Almost all layers offer a quarter the odds four places - in a very competitive affair I'll take an each-way interest in Investissement at around 9/1.

I haven't done any work on Sunday's cards but I'll look closely at my Epsom Derby selection Native Khan who goes in the Irish Derby. Writing in the Weekender Kieren Fallon rates him overpriced at 8/1 and 'the logical each-way pick', while Nick Mordin selects the same horse as he sees favourite Carlton House 'vulnerable off a quick return because he's still immature'.

On the same day but changing codes, 18 have been declared for the English Summer National run over three and half miles at Uttoxeter. I prefer a young horse for this one and will do some homework on Eoin Griffin's The Last Derby who was third in the Cork National last October and sixth in the Irish National at Fairyhouse in April.

Royal Ascot 2011 reviewed

2011-06-19T20:08:00.010+01:00

Over Royal Ascot week the blog's highlighted suggestions turned in a small loss (to recorded SPs) of 0.43 points; two winners (Canford Cliffs 11/8 and Veiled 11/2) with one each-way second (Harris Tweed 12/1) from 11 selections resulted a win strike rate of 18.18%.

First day highlights included Canford Cliffs' defeat of Goldikova and Frankel's victory in the St James's Palace Stakes; there is now a distinct possibility the two horses will clash in the Sussex Stakes at the Glorious Goodwood meeting on July 27th.

Rewilding's neck defeat of 4/11 favourite SoYou Think in Wednesday's Prince Of Wales's Stakes (one recorded bet on the favourite of £20,000-£45,000) provided plenty of drama and a nine day ban for winning jockey Frankie Dettori whose action in hitting his mount 24 times in the final two furlongs has re-ignited the debate surrounding misuse of the whip.

Fame And Glory stole the show in Thursday's Gold Cup; comparisons with the great Yeats were inevitable. Brown Panther took the concluding King George V Stakes in some style; in the immediate aftermath winning owner Michael Owen was spotted wiping a tear from his eye. Connections now appear to be considering the German Derby as well the Doncaster St.Leger. The high fashion of Ladies' Day was lowered considerably when eight men set about knocking nine bells out of each other in a full-blown brawl behind the grandstand. One imagines Her Majesty would not have been amused...

Less than a fortnight after Pour Moi had crossed La Manche to claim the Epsom Derby, France recorded a 1-2 in Friday's feature with Immortal Verse beating Nova Hawk two and a quarter lengths in the Coronation Stakes.

On the final day Await The Dawn recorded an impressive victory on ground that didn't suit in the Hardwicke; connections are still dreaming of the Breeders' Cup Classic while in the space of 40 minutes trainer James Fanshawe landed a 220/1 double, sending out Society Rock to win the Golden Jubilee Stakes at 25/1 and Deacon Blues the Wokingham at 15/2.

So, what of Royal Ascot?

Rick Broadbent, writing as Couch Potato in The Times, '...remains undecided as to whether live coverage of a Middle England bender is actually sport.'

Nonetheless there remains something quaintly reaassuring in the fact that this particular meeting can generate plenty of correspondence to the same paper's letters page. On Thursday Michael Cole of Woodbridge, Suffolk wrote, 'The preponderance of black stovepipe hats is making Royal Ascot look like an undertakers' convention. The grey topper is more suitable to a summer race meeting...' Saturday's Times published seven replies making several points on various aspects of social etiquette but perhaps Brian Smith of Wells, Somerset, asked two questions on the lips of the silent majority when inquiring, 'Why is it necessary to wear this ridiculous garb to watch a horse race? Why can't people wear normal clothes?'

Finally, a jumps note to finish on. John Francome pointed out on Saturday's Morning Line that 2011 will be a year to remember for amateur jockey Sam Waley-Cohen. Three months after riding Long Run to victory in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, Sam walked down the aisle to marry Annabel Ballin. Francome reported that the classic car due to take the happy couple on their way unfortunately failed to start and then went on to express his hope that a similar problem wasn't repeated later in the bridal suite...

Royal Ascot 2011 - Saturday

2011-06-17T21:24:00.001+01:00

Saturday is the final day of Royal Ascot...

Await The Dawn will be a warm favourite in the Hardwicke Stakes (3.05) but I intend to have an each-way wager on Harris Tweed. The gelding was beaten ten lengths by St Nicholas Abbey in the Ormonde at Chester run on fast ground - that one has since gone on to claim Epsom's Coronation Cup. Willie Haggas' charge is better on soft and although he has improvement to find with several in the field he rates a value bet at 16/1.

At two miles five furlongs and 159 yards Ascot's finale, the Queen Alexandra Stakes, is the longest race in the Flat calendar; Bergo took this last year - I'm concentrating on horses with form over the jumps.

American Spin, second in a maiden hurdle at Uttoxeter last time, is priced up at 150/1 and has the look of a social runner. Lady Green's brown mare Dayia has form in Irish bumpers and finished fourth in this race last year. Degas Art appears to have been sold out of Howard Johnson's yard after winning a Hexham seller; now with Lucinda Russell, he went on to take a handicap hurdle at Perth off a rating of 120. Willie Mullins saddles Deutschland who was eighth in this last year and has had a couple of warm-ups while Font is something of a character who bounced back to form on his first run for Lawney Hill. Tim Vaughan's Grand Art has been mixing codes and racing over a variety of distances but hasn't won since May 2009 while Halla San found the obstacles getting in the way last winter. Ladies Best appears best on fast ground and won an Exeter maiden hurdle last month; the King's Best gelding has his first run here for James Given. Not Til Monday, owned by The Three Honest Men, races from the front and has a 19 furlong Lingfield Novice Hurdle on soft ground to his name as well as K.Fallon in the plate. Overturn will be popular for obvious reasons but it's worth noting he isn't guaranteed to stay this trip. Swingkeel may prefer better ground while Kayef ran well last time at Haydock but didn't appear to stay Sandown's stiff two miles on heavy ground in January. Elyaadi was second behind Junior in last year's Ascot Stakes and has the look of a mare laid out for this.

In the past 10 years the winner has come from the top five in the market on nine occasions. Those of interest are Elyaadi, Overturn, Dayia, Swingkeel, Degas Art and Deutschland. Dayia is discounted as she hasn't seen a racecourse since last October and Swingkeel as he appears to prefer top of the ground. After Overturn Degas Art is the highest-rated horse in the race but it's difficult to envisage the recent winner of a Hexham seller coming home first here. I prefer Elyaadi to Overturn as the Singspiel mare has winning form over two and a half miles and Overturn was allowed a relatively easy time up front in May's Chester Cup. Elyaadi is the pick with Willie Mullins' Deutschland the each-way suggestion for those looking for something at a bigger price.

Royal Ascot 2011 - Friday

2011-06-16T20:49:00.004+01:00

Pressed for time this evening so I have concentrated on the Queen's Vase, a two mile race for three-year-olds which is due off at 5 o'clock. The current going is good to soft, soft in places, and with further rain forecast this will represent a tough test for these young horses.

Henry Cecil has won seven previous renewals and Aidan O'Brien two of the last four runnings while Mark Johnson has trained the winner of this race on five occasions in the past decade - he saddles three this year. On official ratings likely favourite Regent Street is the one to beat. The Galileo colt won his maiden over 11 furlongs in December and his third behind Recital in the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial reads well given Recital subsequently finished sixth in the Epsom Derby, beaten under five lengths. He doesn't appear entirely straightforward, having tried blinkers for the first time last time out; here connections have opted to try cheekpieces for the first time. Namibian looks the pick of Mark Johnson's runners, beaten under two lengths trying to concede 16lbs to stablemate Eternal Heart at Musselburgh a fortnight ago. Namibian has been kept busy in contrast to the same stable's relatively unexposed Halifax. Henry Cecil's Solar Sky, another Galileo colt, merits attention. His second to World Domination on his racecourse debut caught the eye but he was only workmanlike the next time when winning a Haydock maiden at odds of 2/13. The Weeknder reports Cecil holds this one in some regard; World Domination runs in the King Edward VII Stakes at 3.05 and may provide a pointer to Solar Sky's chance. Of the remainder Roger Varian's Ittirad looks intriguing and has shown he can handle soft ground.

The Mark Johnson stable is respected but a strike rate of 7/79 (8.86%) in the past fortnight is a little below par. Ittirad, a Janaury foal, has enough to find on ratings but is less exposed than one or two of these and rates the tentative each-way suggestion (8/1 with William Hill this evening).

Royal Ascot 2011 - Thursday is Gold Cup Day

2011-06-15T16:55:00.006+01:00

The highlight on Ladies' Day is the Gold Cup run over two and a half miles; fifteen go to post. Last year's 20/1 winner Rite Of Passage unfortunately misses the event through injury.

The market has something of a lop-sided look with layers going 6/1 the field bar one; the one in question is Aidan O'Brien's Fame And Glory. The breeding boys believe the Ballydoyle bay should stay but I don't feel inclined to find out at odds of just 7/4. He didn't impress everyone when taking the Saval Beg Stakes at Leopardstown two and a half weeks ago and has a further six furlongs to travel here but on official ratings the favourite has at least five pounds in hand over all tomorrow's opponents.

As I've done with several long distance Flat races this term, I'm concentrating on horses with previous form over the jumps. Blue Bajan finished down the field in the 2009 Champion Hurdle behind Punjabi; he was subsequently off the track for over a year but appears rejuvenated in the care of David O'Meara. Connections have supplemented the gelding for this after his victory in Sandown's Henry II Stakes. Kasbah Bliss has finished second to Inglis Drever and fourth to Big Buck's in two renewals of Cheltenham's World Hurdle but has never quite lived up to the potential and came home sixth in this last year. The Betchworth Kid has bit and pieces of form - a close fourth to Recession Proof in Newbury's totesport Trophy last Feburary reads well but he isn't consistent and doesn't really strike me as the winner. If in the mood he'll stay and appears to have shown better form with some cut in the ground.

I'm not convinced I've mentioned the winner, so I'll have an each-way wager on Blue Bajan. He has form with a couple of the more fancied runners - William Hill's 14/1 looks reasonable value.

Royal Ascot 2011 - Wednesday

2011-06-14T16:47:00.002+01:00

Wednesday's feature is the Prince of Wales's Stakes at 3.45 in which seven are set to face the starter. So You Think was seriously impressive in Australia and has continued in the same vein on two starts for Aidan O'Brien. He'll be no price so I'm gong to oppose with Planteur who has a decent turn of foot and may well prove a better colt at four than he was at three. Dylan Hill points out in the Weekender Royal Ascot Guide that the last two Prix Garnay winners to contest this have won, so Planteur, 4/1 in places, gets the nod.

In the opening Jersey Stakes Henry Candy's Codemaster is the one to beat on official ratings. This race has been the target - last time out the colt won the listed King Charles II Stakes at Newmarket, breaking the seven furlong course record in the process. Codemaster is likely to appreciate drying ground and is the selection.

The Windsor Forest at 3.05 looks extremely competitive - Seta (4/1) rates nothing more than a tentative suggestion - while as a matter of principle I never bet the annual cavalry charge that is the Royal Hunt Cup - 31 declared and layers go 6/1 the field. For those tempted, note that most bookmakers are offering a quarter the odds five places but amongst those only paying four are William Hill, Coral, Stan James and totesport.

Royal Ascot 2011 - Tuesday

2011-06-12T21:00:00.005+01:00

Tuesday's Royal Ascot card looks the best of the entire week, the highlight being the St James's Palace Stakes due off at 3.45. Frankel, trained by Sir Henry Cecil who was awarded a knighthood in the recent Queen's Birthday Honours List, made all to blow away his rivals in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket a little over six weeks ago. He'll be no price and there are fears in some quarters the race may have left its mark. Recent rain should benefit Dream Ahead - Dream Ahead each way (14/1) is the suggestion.

Queen Anne held the first Ascot races in 1711, 300 years ago; the first race of the meeting is named after the monarch. On paper this year's renewal looks a clash between Canford Cliffs and Goldikova. Last year the mare Goldikova beat Paco Boy, trained by Richard Hannon, a neck. Hannon also trains Canford Cliffs and word is the handler considers Canford Cliffs a better horse so Canford Cliffs has to be the selection.

In the Ascot Stakes over two and a half miles, I'm going to follow a theme discussed on the blog in recent weeks and concentrate on horses with jumps form.

Top weight Junior won this off a 10 pound lower mark last year; he took the Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival by an astonishing 24 lengths in March so it's not surprising to see layers mark up David Pipe's charge favourite. Paul Webber's Australia Day likes to race from the front and finished fourth in the one and a half mile Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes at this meeting last year before going on to take the competitive totescoop6 handicap hurdle at Market Rasen later in the summer; the grey gelding has never won beyond 17 furlongs. Sunwise moved from John Oxx to Paul Nicholls but didn't appear in love with jumping; on his inaugural run for Willie Haggas, he finished fourth in a York claimer and has enough to find. The last time we saw Tyrells Wood, owned by Dr Marman Koukash and now trained by Ian Williams, was in this event a year ago when he finished eleventh - the booking of Jamie Spencer catches the eye. Charlie Mann's Unleashed has never won beyond 12 furlongs and finished down the field last year while Brian Ellison's Palomar has been kept busy but strikes me as a horse who has to have things fall just right. Private Story has had just one run for Tim Vaughan; he finished seventh in last year's Queen's Vase, beaten under ten lengths, and could improve for the extra half mile. Nicky Henderson's mare Veiled warrants every respect; Fallon won cosily on this one at Newmarket last time and the second that day, Gifted Leader, obliged at Sandown yesterday. Phoenix Flight will stay but doesn't appeal while La Estrella's last run over hurdles saw him finish fourth in a Stratford seller in 2008; he didn't appear to stay two miles three furlongs that day. Rattan, once with Henry Cecil and now with Willie Mullins, merits attention but bottom weight Alsadaa tries this trip for the first time.

As a play against probable favourite Junior, who is unlikely to be allowed an easy time up front, Veiled is suggested (has won at Cheltenham over two mile five furlongs) while Willie Mullins' Rattan is the each-way wager at 14/1 (Richard Hughes in the plate).

And finally, for those who must have a bet in the King's Stand Stakes at 3.05, I'd be prepared to give Overdose, aka the 'Budapest Bullet', another chance. The entire disappointed at Haydock the last time but recent rain should have helped; Coral offer 16/1 which some may feel merits each-way support.

When Saturday comes

2011-06-10T21:02:00.007+01:00

With Ascot just around the corner I intend to watch from the sidelines tomorrow.

Tuesday's card at the royal meeting looks exceptional with the reappearance of the 2000 Guineas winner Frankel in the St James's Palace Stakes an eagerly awaited highlight; connections of the favourite have indicated different tactics are likely be adopted in this race. The opening Queen Anne Stakes, set to feature a clash between Canford Cliffs and Goldikova, together with the five furlong King's Stand Stakes, provide strong support to the main event.

If I'm tempted off the straight path when Saturday comes, I'll look at horses with previous jumps form in the concluding handicap at Sandown run over one and threequarter miles. Top weight Right Stuff is a dual purpose horse who hasn't won since April 2009; last time out he finished third off a rating of 112 in a Fontwell handicap hurdle so he is respected here with a mark of 85. Owned by Malcolm Denmark Kid Charlemagne hasn't run over hurdles since 2008 when Carl Llewellyn was training; subsequently the gelding was off the track for over two years. His third behind Illustrious Blue at odds of 80/1 in the2010 Goodwood Cup reads well and the latest effort after a break can be forgiven. The gelding has clearly been difficult to train and sports a first-time tonuge-tie tomorrow - if the tissue price of 50/1 becomes available, I'll take an each-way interest. Kazzene, owned by Terry Neill, had the Triumph Hurdle as a target at one stage. David Pipe's charge has since shown signs of reluctance in his races and has been described by his handler as 'a bit of a character but he's got an engine.' Rated 123 over hurdles, he goes off a mark of 83 tomorrow so on bare figures makes more appeal than the top weight. Gifted Leader finished eighth at York earlier today - I'd be surprised to see him in tomorrow's line-up.

After the Derby

2011-06-05T21:02:00.009+01:00

French-trained colt Pour Moi took an enthralling renewal of the Derby. 19-year-old Mickael Barzalona, riding in the race for the first time, brought his mount from last to first to beat 25/1 chance Treasure Beach a head with the Queen's Carlton House threequarters of a length adrift in third. There were a few raised eyebrows immediately afterwards as Barzalona stood bolt upright in his irons to salute the victory before he'd actually passed the winning post. Connections of Carlton House were left to rue their luck but to this observer the better horse won on the day. The victory doesn't appear to have impressed official handicapper Phil Smith who has tentatively given Pour Moi a rating of 122, the lowest rating since Sir Percy won in 2006. On several occasions through the afternoon the BBC's coverage of the royal angle verged on the ridiculous while the Court of Appeal ruled that Kieren Fallon could not ride in the race, a decision the jockey likened to 'being knocked out in the first round at Wimbledon.'

Those disappointed Carlton House didn't oblige for the Queen may want to bid for a painting of Her Majesty instead. Sir Alfred James Munnings' A Study for HM The Queen and Aureole will be sold at Christie's on June 15th; the auctioneers place a £60,000-£80,000 price tag on the piece...

Whatever you think of Fred Done, you can't argue with the man's sense of timing. The day after it was announced Betfred's bid for the Tote had been successful, he appeared on the Morning Line and offered to refund all losing singles on the Derby (up to a maximum of £500) if the Queen's Carlton House won. A nice stunt, and in the event it didn't cost him a penny.

I wasn't paying full attention but I sensed Clare Balding nearly had another Liam Treadwell moment when she informed viewers before Friday's Oaks that one particular jockey, an Everton fan, had a tattoo on his back that had been unfortunately misspelt (reading Eeverton instead of Everton). Who was that jockey?

Finally, for those interested, Royal Ascot is a little over a week away; the Weekender / Raceform Update Royal Ascot Ultimate Guide 2011 went on sale Friday 3rd June.

Derby Day 2011

2011-06-03T20:57:00.001+01:00

The jockeys have been making the news today... There were two stand-out rides at Epsom earlier, from Ryan Moore aboard Saint Nicholas Abbey in the Coronation Cup and from Johnny Murtagh who pinched the Oaks from the front on Dancing Rain. Frankie Dettori found himself in trouble with the stewards after the Oaks, having been found guilty of dropping his hands and losing third place; he has been hit with a ten day ban. Meanwhile, it remains to be seen whether Kieren Fallon will be able to ride in tomorrow's Derby after the owner of Native Khan took out a High Court injunction to prevent the jockey from riding Aidan O'Brien's Recital; the judge initially ruled he would not prevent Fallon from riding but the decision has been taken to appeal - the result is due at 0900 Saturday morning.

My Derby record makes grim reading with just two wins (Authorized 2007 and Workforce 2010) in forty years of trying. Generally the market has proved a good guide to the race with Sinndar (7/1) being the biggest priced winner in recent years. Using that benchmark, the victor will come from a list that comprises Carlton House, Recital, Pour Moi and Seville. I can't have the Queen's colt, Carlton House. His victory in the Dante was over three seconds slower than Midday's time in the Middleton Stakes half an hour earlier; he isn't guaranteed to stay; he doesn't represent value while his problems in the build-up have been well-documented. Fallon originally committed to ride Native Khan but has jumped ship; the jock has written a bullish piece in the Weekender about Recital's chance but at this point we don't know if he'll be on board. Seville finished second behind Carlton House in the muddling Dante and on breeding looks the more likely to stay the trip. Pour Moi has been well backed in recent weeks but French traned horses don't have a great record in the race.

Native Khan catches my eye, although obviously Fallon's view is respected. Ed Dunlop's grey isn't guaranteed to stay but he appeared to finish the 2000 Guineas strongly. Timeform rates the principals as follows: Carlton House 136p; Native Khan 134p; Seville 133p; Recital 133; Pour Moi 129p. At 12/1 with Coral I'll chance Native Khan staying the distance and have an each-way wager. For the dreamers amongst you, one that will stay and looks overpriced at 100/1 is Pisco Sour, although the luck of the draw (stall one) hasn't been kind to Hughie Morrison and his colt.

Should Carlton House win for Her Majesty, she will become the first royal to win the Derby since King Edward VII took the race with Minoru in 1909. Should Carlton House disappoint but Sohraab win the preceding Epsom Dash, I'd imagine Her Majesty would not be particularly amused; Kate Middleton's parents own a share of Sohraab...

Up at Newcastle's evening meeting, several runners in the two mile handicap (7.30) have form over the sticks. Orsippus is one that stands out, despite top weight, having finished third in the Coral Cup at Cheltenham in March. Off a mark of 137 he disappointed in the Swinton Hurdle but he starts this Grade 6 handicap off 62. He would be of interest if priced around 5/1 (as he is in tonight's tissue). In the past Westlin' Winds has tended to show better form with cut underfoot; this is his third run for Brian Ellison, having moved north from Charles Egerton's yard a couple of months back. Brian Ellison's 21% strike rate in the past fortnight means an improvement on those first two runs wouldn't be a complete surprise.

In the frame...

2011-05-29T19:38:00.006+01:00

Earlier this week Daryl Jacob was appointed Paul Nicholls' second jockey. Having read Lucky Break and Ruby: The Autobiography, I wondered whether Nicholls would have perhaps considered an alternative arrangement this time given that first choice Walsh missed much of last year's core NH season with a broken leg. Of course, Walsh is peerless and returned to action in March to ride five Festival winners. Nonetheless hints of tension in the partnership were inevitably present - Nicholls was known to be disappointed by Walsh's decision to ride Willie Mullins' Mikael D'Haguenet ahead of Aiteen Thirtythree in the RSA Chase at Cheltenham. In the Weekender Alistair Whitehouse-Jones reports that trainer Nick Williams has acted quickly and appointed James Reveley as a replacement for Jacob but hints that Reveley's reluctance to relocate south could lead to problems in the future.

It may be very early days in the new NH season but I've seen snippets from Simon Holt and Alan Lee suggesting two jockeys who could give current champion A P McCoy a run for his money this year are Jason Maguire and the aforementioned Daryl Jacob.

Mickael Barzalona rode a double at Newmarket yesterday and later Barcelona won the Champions League Final at Wembley, but did anyone else think Paddy Power were sailing close to the wind with the advertisement that interspersed Channel 4's racing coverage? A young lady showed viewers a mobile device displaying the message 'Barcelona win normal time, refund losing bets'; the lady in question then encouraged punters to go to a specific web address. In actual fact the refunds applied to Paddy Power's correct score, scorecast and first/last goalscorer markets only; although full details were displayed in 'small print' on screen, I thought the deliberate impression created was the refund applied to all bets struck.

Finally, a couple of horses you may wish to follow if, unlike Ryan Giggs, you're a fan of Twitter...

Twitter horse Trending @Trending_Horse trained by @jeremygask website: http://socialmediaracing.com/

The People's Horse @peopleshorse website: http://www.thepeopleshorse.co.uk/

Student Horse Tae Kwon Do @StudentHorse His progress has been mentioned on the blog previously; he obliged at odds of 9/2 at Fontwell earlier today.

Friday night ramblings

2011-05-27T21:37:00.003+01:00

There's a decent enough card at Stratford tomorrow evening but I imagine the attendance is likely to suffer as Manchester United play Barcelona in the Champions League final at Wembley. The going at the Warwickshire track is described as good, good to firm in places, with 18mm of rain falling on Thursday. 11 go for The Gambling Prince Trophy at 7.20; a case can be made for most of them. Invisible Man pipped Swing Bill a neck at Worcester ten days ago with Commemoration Day another ten and a half lengths back in fifth; the winner that day may well struggle to confirm placings on the revised ratings. Two Welsh handlers in good form are Rebecca Curtis and Peter Bowen; the former trains The Jigsaw Man but I'm tempted to take an each-way chance with Bowen's Sunday City (16/1 in tonight's tissue). This one isn't easy to catch right and isn't certain to give his running but he retains some ability having won the Macer Gifford Handicap Chase at Huntingdon last autumn and appeared somewhat unlucky when slipping up at Ludlow on his penultimate run.

Another Welsh handler in form Tim Vaughan (25% strike rate in past fortnight) saddles The Ferbane Man in the Warwickshire Hunt Handicap Chase at 7.55. This one is a trier and a stayer but in a stable tour article last October the handler said 'He loves bottomless ground and grinds the opposition down.' With the going on the quick side I'll watch from the sideleines.

The booking of McCoy for Amercian Art in the opener catches my eye. The champ has ridden Rebecca Curtis' well-regarded gelding Praxiteles before. I'll check the price before deciding whether to bet.

I'm sure Sir Alex Ferguson would welcome any diversion from the pressures of the build-up to a Champions League final but his two runners at Sandown last night failed to oblige. Pausanias finished fourth in a listed stakes while the somewhat inappropriately named Magic City could only finish third despite being sent off 10/11 favourite in another listed event. The irony is Magic City was beaten by Pyman's Theory, part-owned by Michael Owen. After pulling a stunt like that, I'd expect Owen to be leaving Old Trafford during the close season. Blue Bajan, a former Swinton Handicap Hurdle winner, took the two mile Henry II Stakes.

Following on from that prompt, horses with jumps form racing over a distance of more than one and a half miles on the Flat tomorrow include Cotillon, My Arch, La Estrella and Kayef in Haydock's opener; of these, Cotillon and Michael Scudamore's Kayef are of interest. The latter has a Sandown juvenile hurdle to his name and finished down the field in the Fred Winter at the Cheltenham Festival. The colt doesn't look the easiest of rides but ran well to finish a close-up fourth at Ascot the last time, priced 33/1. Coral bet 16/1 for tomorrow's race.

In Catterick's 4.05 Micky Hammond's Heart Of Dubai won over course and distance the last time but isn't guaranteed to reproduce that effort while mare Madamlily looks to have a tough enough task giving weight to all her rivals.

Newmarket's finale includes Veiled, Gifted Leader and Blue Spartan. Nicky Henderson has booked Kieren Fallon for Veiled. Gifted Leader has won a Stratford Class 3 hurdle; rated 130 over hurdles, the gelding goes off a mark of 77 here and would be of some interest for each-way punters if priced up at 16/1 (as in tonight's tissue). The grey Blue Spartan looks sure to appreciate this trip.

Digestives

2011-05-22T20:32:00.001+01:00

A good weekend for the Coolmore operation with Aidan O'Brien's son Jospeh claiming his first Classic winner aboard Roderic O'Connor in yesterday's Irish 2000 Guineas while earlier this afternoon Misty For Me took the Irish 1000 Guineas. This evening William Hill is best-priced about both horses for Epsom - Roderic O'Connor is quoted at 20/1 for the Derby and Misty For Me 10/1 for the Oaks.

There was plenty of media hype surrounding Hungarian sprinter Overdose, aka the Budapest Bullet, and his attempt on Haydock's Temple Stakes. In the event the Bullet proved to be a blank, trailling home a disappointing seventh. After the race pilot Andreas Suborics indicated the horse may appreciate more give underfoot following his recent training problems.

Plenty think Carlton House is something of a shoo-in for the Derby. Generally the market has proved a very good guide to the race (no winner priced bigger than 7/1 in the past decade) and the right vibes have been coming out of the stable. Nevertheless, three reasons to be wary...This year's Dante was a muddling affair with the time (2m 13.49) over three seconds slower than the Middleton Stakes (2m 10.05) run half an hour earlier; the colt isn't guaranteed to stay; the current price offers little in the way of value.

Many years ago an acquaintance of mine described our sport as 'a game of regrets', pointing out that even when you've lucky enough to have backed a winner, you're somehow troubled by the fact you hadn't increased your stake money. Last week my particular regret was not to have chanced Moorlands Jack on his first try over hurdles at Uttoxeter. In a Weekender Stable Tour article last September handler Tim Vaughan was particularly sweet on the (then) unraced five-year-old, commenting the bay gelding would be 'speedy enough to win first time out'. Two below par efforts in bumpers didn't look encouraging going into the Uttoxeter race but the trainer's faith wasn't misplaced as 20/1 chance Moorlands Jack won despite being less than fluent at a couple of his hurdles. I'll monitor progress with interest. Others worth a second look if appearing in the foreseeable future include recent Perth winner Lewlaur Supreme, David Pipe's bumper winners Swing Bowler and Barney Cool and Paul Webber's Monkey Milan who took a Towcester bumper - jock Denis O'Regan was reported keen not to use the whip on this rather green five-year-old.

Finally, where's the value? £50 million for Chelsea footballer Fernando Torres or £53 million for Waterstone's 300 High Street bookstores?

Friday night thoughts

2011-05-20T21:49:00.006+01:00

In recent weeks rumours have been rife in racing and the national press concerning an ongoing investigation being conducted by the British Horseracing Authority (BHA). Earlier today the result of that investigation was made public as the BHA charged four jockeys and one ex-rider with breaking the rules of racing by conspiring to commit a fraudulent or corrupt practice in ten separate races run between January and August 2009. The four jockeys were named as Paul Doe, Greg Fairley, Kirsty Milczarek and Jimmy Quinn; former rider now trainer Paul Fitzsimons faces similar charges, as do two licensed owners and six other persons. The date of the hearing has been set for Thursday 20th October; unsurprisingly the jockeys charged, who can continue to ride, have vowed to clear their names. Unfortunately episodes such as this have become all too familiar in recent years.

Regular readers will know that I've decided to focus on horses with form over the sticks running in races over further than one and a half miles this Flat campaign. Nicky Henderson's Oasis Knight goes in the 3.10 at York; this one won a two and a half mile novice hurdle at Aintree a fortnight ago sporting first time blinkers. The gelding's second to subsequent Supreme Novice winner Al Ferof in February reads well enough and the blinds remain on here but on official ratings he has enough to find with two or three of these. Palomar was third in the Lanzarote at Kempton last January but has ten pounds more to find and makes little appeal.

In Chester's 4.35 Cotillion, Bollin Felix and Comedy Act have all collected over hurdles this winter. Both Cotillion and Bollin Felix probably prefer cut while Comedy Act is of some interest. Formerly with Sir Mark Prescott this one sold for 125,000 guineas at the Newmarket sales and at one point was quoted a 25/1 chance for the Triumph Hurdle. He's not lived up to expectations - connections try cheekpieces for the first-time here. He represents nothing more than an each-way longshot but has a decent draw next to the rail in stall one.

Nicky Henderson's First Point is rated 140 over hurdles yet races off a mark of 70 in Newbury's 8.15; the booking of Kieren Fallon catches the eye and the yard has had five wins from 26 runs in the past fortnight. In the same race Gunslinger looks an outsider but Ian Williams' Rebel Dancer boasts decent form with a second to Tocca Ferro to his name. He failed to get competitive in the Swinton at Haydock the last time but I'd forgive that effort and the quick ground shouldn't pose a problem.

Recent racing titbits

2011-05-16T16:32:00.003+01:00

I don't know why but since the royal wedding matters royal continue to crop up. A couple of weeks ago the Daily Mail reported that the Queen had looked after Frankie Dettori's lost dachsund Scruby. Then at York last Thursday Midday won the Middleton Stakes while half an hour later the Queen's Carlton House won the Dante in some style. Her Majesty's colt, apparently gifted to her by Sheikh Mohammed, is now a short-priced favourite for the Epsom Derby on Saturday June 4th. All that has encouraged further royal foraging - Marcus Armytage in the Daily Telegraph pointed out that:

The Queen has never won the Derby - in 1953, the year of her Coronation, Aureole finished second to Pinza;

The last monarch to win the Derby was King Edward VII in 1909 with Minoru.

Professor Gerda Reith of Glasgow University has carried out research of a different kind and discovered that the use of Fixed Odds Betting Terminal (FOBTs) in betting shops can lead to problems. 'Betting machines are particularly risky because of the enormous speed at which they take gamblers' money.'

Today's students are likely to be familiar with the idea of running up big debts, so perhaps it's unsurprising to see the BHA trying to entice them into the world of racehorse ownership. Love The Races has leased Tim Vaughan's Tae Kwon Do to a select band of students until the end of June as part of a prize in a recently-held comeptition. Last time out the gelding ran better than his 14/1 market price would have suggested beforehand, finishing third in a handicap hurdle at Wincanton. I'd imagine connections will be keen to land a small race before the lease runs out. In a somewhat similar vein Bangor blog selection Wake Board won with his head in his chest on Saturday despite pulling hard through most of the race and a hiccup two form home; have current connections found the key to this enigmatic individual?

Finally, I leave you with the thought that you tend to come across a different type of woman in the jumping game. At the Punchestown Festival Ladies' Day recently Daybreak presenter Grainne Seoige turned up wearing steel toe-capped heels, no doubt of particular use when dealing with the unwanted attentions of over-amourous male punters keen to try their luck...

Notes for Bangor

2011-05-13T20:50:00.011+01:00

This evening the going at the north Wales track is described as good but rain is forecast.

In the opener Alan King's 114-rated Dineur was beaten two lengths by 80/1 chance Alta Rock at Market Rasen the last time over a distance of two miles three furlongs.The shorter trip here should help as should the gelding's preference to race up with the pace; Alta Rock has come out and won again since. Donald McCain's Dunowen Point has started favourite on three occasions and disappointed each time - connections have given their charge a break; trainer comments 'he has a great attitude...' [Weekender 13-17.10.10]. Jennie Candlish's course and distance winner Tarn Hows makes more appeal; the stable has had two winners from five runners in the past week - one on the Flat at Warwick and the other over fences at Uttoxeter. Any rain would help Tarn Hows' cause but Dineur looks the safer option.

In the Brookes Bell Novices' Handicap Hurdle at three o'clock J P McManus' Fishoutofwater is likely to go off favourite. I'll oppose with Spirit Of Barbados. Andrew King, West Country correspondent for the Weekender, reports plenty of money for this one the last time at Chepstow - the Sporting Life records eight wagers of £1100-£1000. The gelding got no further than the first, running out with Rhys Flint before throwing the jock; Richard Johnson takes over tomorrow.

Only five in the novices' chase at 3.35 but it looks trappy enough. Princeful gets the nod; further rain would help.

In the handicap chase Marked Man can be opposed on account of his age while What Of It has been running in hunter chases. Mare Play A Cord is the likely favourite but she faces no easy task giving weight to her opponents. Once upon a time Wake Board was well-regarded but just seven runs for four different trainers since 2008 is disconcerting; it looks as though he was bought out of a seller on his penultimate run. Trevor Hemmings' grey Our Bob has had a wind operation to accompany his training problems. It's a high risk approach but I'll chance Wake Board as a play against the jolly.

In the mares' hurdle Irene Kennet could be considered worthy of each-way interest if priced around 10/1.

The concluding hunters' chase is likely to see last year's winner Ice Tea go off odds-on. Fourty Acers won for David Pipe three weeks ago and on ratings has every chance for current connections but in the past the chestnut gelding has hindered his chance on left-handed tracks by jumping right. He comes here in good order, having won a two runner point very easily in April, and could offer value against Ice Tea.

Quick points

2011-05-08T19:54:00.002+01:00

Haydock's Swinton Hurdle looked extremely competitive beforehand but Nicky Henderson's Eradicate ran out an impressive 13 length winner and in the process became the first horse to win consecutive runnings of the race.

In Ireland overall attendance at the Punchestown Festival was, remarkably, higher than last year while Paul Townend claimed his first champion jockeys' title.

The decsion of connections to go to Royal Ascot with 2000 Guineas winner Frankel means Thursday's Dante Stakes at York should prove informative. At the time of writing, 11 are declared; in the ante-post market layers seem unable to choose a favourite from World Domination, Seville and Carlton House, owned by The Queen.

My mate Mike Cattermole didn't appear at the top of his game during Channel Four's coverage from Ascot on Saturday. Immediately after three pound claimer Gary Bartley had ridden Hawkeyethenoo to victory in the Victoria Cup, Cattermole used the rather dodgy link... 'Let's find out what it was like on top - Emma's with the winning jockey.' He then went on to call 5/1 favourite Horseradish the fourth horse home when in fact the favourite had been pipped a nose for that spot by 9/1 chance Brae Hill. I'm not going to be too harsh on uncle Mike - I'm sure he'll improve as the season progresses...

Finally, for reasons beyond comprehension, last week's royal wedding continues to haunt. A couple of days ago a colleague approached and asked if I'd appointed Angela Rippon to work as a correspondent for the blog. It transpires the lady in question has been appointed PG Tips' Official Royal-Tea Expert. I suspect that on current form Ms Rippon has more chance of tipping you a winner than me; in the words of songwriter Irving Berlin:

'There may be trouble ahead
But while there's moonlight and music
And love and romance
Let's face the music and dance.'

After that I'm off for a lie-down.

Brief notes for Haydock & Hexham

2011-05-06T20:36:00.007+01:00

Twenty three are declared for tomorrow's Swinton Handicap Hurdle at Haydock - the tapes go up at 3.40. Last year's winner Eradicate heads the field but stablemates Rebel Now (half-brother to Binocular) and Higgys Ragazzo (carrying enough weight for a four-year-old) are likely to be of more interest this time if we believe the layers have priced the event correctly. Five and six-year-olds have won nine of the last ten renewals while the winner has come from the first three in the market on six occasions in the same timeframe. The one that catches my eye is Hunterview. Ante-post favourite for the Sandown Imperial Cup, David Pipe's charge was unfortunate to miss the cut for that race but then ran well for a long way in the County Hurdle at the Festival before putting in a slightly below par effort in the Scottish Champion Hurdle. Hunterview tends to race prominently which should serve him well on this sharp track; the handicapper has dropped the gelding four pounds for his last effort so I'm hoping he can be competitive here. At 16/1 the selection holds a reasonable each-way chance - Sky Bet bet a quarter the odds five places.

Othermix is likely to go off favourite for the two and a half mile novice chase but faces no easy task conceding six pounds to three opponents who are not lightly dimissed. Nafaath has clear potential while Paul Nicholls' Red Harbour would represent a play against the jolly if rain were to arrive to ease the going.

Donald McCain may have won the Chester Cup with Overturn on Wednesday but at the other end of the scale he has been a staunch supporter of Hexham down the years. The handler, boasting a 25% strike rate over jumps in the past fortnight, sends four on the long trip north from his Cholmondeley base tomorrow. Omokoroa is the one to beat in the 4.25 but perhaps the most interesting is The Weatherman who makes his debut in the concluding bumper.

In a nutshell...

2011-05-01T20:31:00.007+01:00

Those lucky enough to be at Newmarket yesterday saw something exceptional when Frankel demolished his field to win the 2011 2000 Guineas by six lengths; the crowd's applause commenced with two furlongs still to race. Earlier this afternoon Dettori rode 16/1 chance Blue Bunting to victory for the 'Boys in Blue' in the 1000 Guineas.

Today marks the fiftieth anniversary of the legalisation of UK betting shops. The spartan establishments those of us of a particular age used to frequent in the mid sixites bear no resemblance to our modern shops. Sound only commentaries, betting shop tax, it was something of a 'guilty pleasure'. Some complain the prevalence of Fixed Odds Betting Terminals (FOBTs) threaten to turn today's shops into glorified amusement arcades, yet in 2008 these machines became the first product to earn more for Ladbrokes than horse racing. Money talks, as they say.

All that contrasts markedly with the tales of chicanery and criminality I'm currently reading about in Nicholas Foulkes' excellent book 'Gentlemen and Blackguards: Gambling Mania and the Plot to Steal the Derby of 1844'; the paperback version is due to be released on May 26th.

The Punchestown Festival starts on Tuesday - latest declarations here. I've blogged selected races from this meeting in the past but due to commitments can't this year (probably something of a blessing!) Where possible, I'll post some selections...

A final footnote on the royal wedding... One of the troopers from the Household Cavalry was thrown from his mount as the wedding procession made its winding way from the Abbey back to Buckingham Palace. The thoroughbred sped past the newly-married couple and headed for Hyde Park barracks where it was caught; rumours that Her Majesty is considering supplementing the beast for this year's Derby are apparently wide of the mark.

Racing thoughts on a royal wedding day

2011-04-29T20:58:00.008+01:00

On the day Prince William and Catherine Middleton were married, I'd hoped to get by without mentioning the blessed event but the victory of Nick Gifford's nine-year-old gelding Royal Wedding in this evening's opener at Fontwell put paid to that notion. Bookmakers have indicated they'll pay out millions on the result. The Sporting Life recorded some fair-sized bets on course too including £2500-£500, £2000-£500 (twice) and £1800-£400 (four times). Liam Treadwell sent the 4/1 chance to the front at the third; despite a mistake two out, Royal Wedding stayed on to take the Crabbie's Alcoholic Ginger Beer Handicap Chase by a comfortable 12 lengths. No doubt the race sponsors hope winning punters will splash out on lashings of their product to ensure the street parties continue to go with a swing...

The racing focus now moves to the Flat with the 203rd running of the 2,000 Guineas; the season's first Classic, contested over Newmarket's Rowley Mile, is due off at 3.10. On the form book Henry Cecil's unbeaten colt Frankel shouldn't be opposed; several commentators see this horse as the next big superstar so it's no surprise to see layers offer 4/7. In many ways the race doesn't make much appeal as a betting medium. Some observers weren't overly impressed with the colt's seasonal debut in the Greenham at Newbury while Nick Mordin, writing in the Weekender, makes his case for Roderic O'Connor. For what it's worth my each-way suggestion is Willie Haggas' Fury (18/1 with Coral) but, be warned, I don't follow the Flat so closely and am considering a different approach with the blog for this campaign.

A trend noted last year was that horses with jumps form ran well in a number of Flat races over a distance of two miles or more (with Mamlook winning the Chester Cup, Junior the Ascot Stakes, Bergo the Queen Alexandra Stakes and Overturn the Northumberland Plate). So, time permitting of course, I hope to focus on selected Flat races over a distance of more than one and a half miles (and some summer jumping). With this in mind I'd noted Philip Hobbs' Comedy Act held a five-day entry in the 4.40 at Salisbury on Sunday but didn't appear in the final declarations. By the same yardstick, entries in Wednesday's Chester Cup that may be worth a second look include Dirar, Sentry Duty, Mamlook, Overturn, Admiral Barry, La Veccia Scuola, Swingkeel, Tyrrells Wood, Cotillion, Nemo Spirit and Royal Rationale.

And perchance, the last named brings me right back to where I started this post...

Summary report 2010/11 season

2011-04-27T14:03:00.001+01:00

Having just returned from a short Easter break, here's a rather short summary of the 2010/11 National Hunt season...

Champion jockey: Tony McCoy - 218 winners
Winning trainer: Paul Nicholls - £2,424,059
Winning owner: Trevor Hemmings
Champion conditional jockey: Sam Twiston-Davies - 59 winners
Horse of the Year: Big Buck's

Early in November Ruby Walsh suffered a broken leg in a fall from Corrick Bridge that meant the Irishman missed most of the 'core' season; he returned just in time to take the Thomas Pink Leading Rider Award for Cheltenham, riding five Festival winners. The inclement weather of the depths of winter resulted in many trainers chosing to send their charges to Cheltenham without a preparatory run. That policy didn't appear particularly successful - Cue Card and Time For Rupert were two high profile disappointments. Nicky Henderson suffered the embarrassment of having to withdraw Binocular from this year's Champion Hurdle as the horse continued to test positive for a banned substance that had been previously administered for an allergy; privately the British Horseracing Authority admitted to having concerns about the standard of record-keeping at Henderson's Seven Barrows establishment. The trainer then appeared to be enduring something of a nightmare Festival, drawing a blank on the first three days, but on Friday he sent out Bobs Worth to win the Albert Bartlett and 40 minutes later Long Run to win the Gold Cup. Long Run's victory, with amateur Sam Waley-Cohen up, marked a changing of the guard but events in this year's National - two fatalities and winning rider Jason Maguire banned for misuse of the whip - have overshadowed the sport in recent weeks. The whip debate continues unabated - Cornelius Lysaght writing in yesterday's Guardian states that doing nothing is now the only option that can be sensibly dismissed.

Finally, after some deliberate deliberation, I awarded Blog Horse of the Year to Nacarat who was tipped twice and won on both occasions - Wetherby's Charlie Hall Chase (6/1) in November and Aintree's Betfair Bowl (7/2).

Final curtain call at Sandown

2011-04-22T16:59:00.004+01:00

The curtain comes down on another jumps season at Sandown tomorrow. Public reaction to the fatalities in the National and the use of the whip currently dominate the sport's agenda but champion trainer Paul Nicholls asserts 'jumping is in great heart' in today's Times.That view isn't shared by two Northern-based stalwarts, Ferdy Murphy and Harvey Smith (former showjumper extraordinaire and husband of trainer Sue Smith), who shared some outspoken opinions about life up North with Alan Lee in yesterday's edition of the same paper. A couple of quotes...

Murphy: 'The North has been raped. Jump racing here is being turned into glorified point-to-pointing.'
Smith: 'You can't get sense out of London [the BHA]. After all these years and all the calls I've made, I've never found where the buck stops.'
Murphy: 'I would only give myself another three years if nothing changes.'
Steve Charlton [senior valet for jumps jockeys in the North]: 'Prize money up here is derisory now... Anyone trying to run a business in northern jump racing is pushing water uphill.'
Murphy: 'Wetherby is a disgrace these days. They claim they have no money and all they are putting on is rubbish.'

The 2011 Cheltenham Festival, regarded as vintage by many observers, seems light years away. Towcester racecourse, one of the first, if not the first, to experiment with free admission, has once again shown itself to be at the forefront of change by requesting permission to run all races next season with whip use prohibited.

The feature on Sandown's mixed card is the bet365 Gold Cup Chase, still referred to as the Whitbread by old-timers such as myself. 18 will face the starter this year; the official going is described as good, good to firm in places. No favourite has obliged in the past decade and in the same timeframe only two horses have won carrying more than 11 stones (Puntal 2004 and Lacdoudal 2006). Seven of the last ten winners have been priced 10/1 or bigger - Puntal was a 25/1 chance in 2004. Last year's winner Church Island heads the weights and is likely to race prominently, a comment that applies to Baby Run who made amends for unseating young Willie Twiston-Davies at Cheltenham by winning the Aintree Fox Hunters' Chase for the same rider. Elder brother Sam takes over tomorrow. A case can be made for several of these in what appears a run-of-the-mill renewal; I've looked for something at a price. David Pipe's ten-year-old Faasel catches the eye with five pound claimer Conor O'Farrell in the plate - totesport offer 20/1 at the time of writing. William Hill go 33/1 Major Malarkey who has the assistance of top jock Aidan Coleman. The latter has tended to show his better form with cut while Faasel's second to Ballabriggs at last year's Festival reads well now; I'll take an each-way interest in Faasel at 20/1.

Paul Nicholls' Sanctuaire is likely to be odds-on in the opener after a facile victory in the Scottish Champion Hurdle last week. I will oppose with Clerk's Choice provided he's priced up around 2/1 (as he is in the tissue). He'll appreciate quick ground; connections deliberately missed Aintree after the gelding ran a stormer in the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham.

The Celebration Chase doesn't make much appeal as a betting medium. French Opera would have been of interest but has had two hard races in the past five weeks and the same comment applies to ColinTizzard's Oiseau de Nuit. Cornas has tended to show his best form on soft ground while Chaninbar has refused to race on his last three 'starts'. It all seems to point to Tataniano but the Andy Stewart owned gelding disappointed on his seasonal debut, missed Cheltenham with a muscle problem and is another who has better form to his name when there's cut underfoot. I'll watch with interest.

And that's it for another jumps season. Of course, it all starts again with almost indecent haste - at Plumpton on Sunday...

In the news...

2011-04-17T16:46:00.004+01:00

Following a week in which the fallout from last week's Grand National could be described as significant, racing again finds itself in the spotlight for the wrong reasons. Reports in the press this weekend indicate that the British Horseracing Authority is at present refusing to comment on fresh race-fixing allegations that could involve up to five jockeys. Watch this space, as they say...

On the Grand National... Professor Tim Morris, Director of Equine Science and Welfare at the BHA, has had a busy week with media commitments and he appeared on Saturday's Morning Line. He acknowledged racing is a sport that comes with its risks and can never be made risk-free; nonetheless every avenue would be explored to reduce the risks involved in response to public reaction to last Saturday's events. Interestingly, he inferred that many of the comments the BHA had received related to the misuse of the whip; he appeared unequivocal on that point - the whip is not a welfare issue.

In amongst it all, I just wondered about SamWaley-Cohen's thoughts after the big race. Should he have kicked on when Ballabriggs blundered and lost the lead six from home? Another opinion I've heard in places - if the field had jumped 30 (rather than 28) fences, Oscar Time would probably have collected the spoils.

Former BBC political correspondent and racing man Robin Oakley has been busy of late. Following the hardback release of Frankincense and More: The Biography of Barry Hills last September, The Cheltenham Festival: A Centenary History has just been published. Incidentally, the paperback version of the former title is set to be released on 20th May. If Robin Oakley isn't quite your cup of tea, perhaps Gary Wiltshire, 'The Belly from the Telly', is. Winning It Back: The Autobiography of Britain's Biggest Gambler is now on the bookshelves. Gary lost £1 million when Frankie Dettori famously went through the card at Ascot on 28th September 1996; that event made Gary Wiltshire famous - as he says in the preface, every cloud...

Scottish Grand National

2011-04-15T14:55:00.003+01:00

In the week after Aintree's Grand National there has been no shortage of people giving their opinion on last Saturday's events. Simon Barnes and Carol Midgley of The Times inform us they've watched their last National, the latter stating 'I think I know the difference between right and wrong' while Matthew Syed, the same paper's 'Sports Feature Writer of the Year', resorts to quoting chunks of Orwell to readers in a piece penned on Wednesday. The case for the defence included Brough Scott appearing on The One Show, a statement issued by the British Horseracing Authority and support for the race from champion jockey Tony McCoy. As if all that wasn't enough, there's another Grand National tomorrow - in Scotland!

30 have been declared for tomorrow's showpiece at Ayr where the going is described as good, good to soft in places; at the time of writing two look doubtful - Fair Along and Bellflower Boy. Neptune Collonges has stood his ground which means that just eight of the 30 declared will carry their correct handicap weight; Neptune is set to concede a minimum of 15 pounds to his opponents. Several runners were in action at Cheltenham last month - Neptune Collonges (Gold Cup), Chicago Grey, Beshabar and Be There In Five (NH Chase), Blazing Bailey, Fair Along and No Panic (Stewart Family Spinal Research Handicap Chase), Fredo (Kim Muir), Poker De Sivola (Cross Country Chase), Gansey (Byrne Group Plate) and Gone To Lunch (Foxhunter Chase) while Minella Four Star beat Ballyfitz in the Midlands Grand National and That's Rhythm jumped a sand line in the turf at the start of last week's Aintree National before overjumping at the first and falling. No favourite has obliged in the past decade and only one winner has been priced lower than 12/1 (Ryalux in 2003). Of the market leaders, Always Right (9/1 Coral, totesport) appeals, certainly more so than last year's winner Merigo who was well behind the former in the Grimthorpe at Doncaster. Having said that, Always Right just held Lothian Falcon (first-time cheekpieces applied) in that Doncaster race; the latter reopposes on 10 pounds worse terms here although Peter Carberry can claim seven of them. I shall take a small each-way interest in Always Right.

I'm not particularly tempted by the Scottish Champion Hurdle (a limited handicap). Those who want to play may be interested in Nick Mordin's comments in the Weekender - Bygones Of Brid doesn't travel well but has won five out of six on local tracks. He may be of interest at a price.

On Arkle form Giorgio Quercus has the beating of Stagecoach Pearl in the 2.20 while the five year old mare Nadiya De La Vega is well regarded. Geraghty looks to have chosen Giorgio. For the record, the favourite has won three of the past ten renewals whereas the second favourite has won on four occasions.

After Aintree

2011-04-10T20:39:00.008+01:00

Differing perspectives on the Grand National... Donald McCain followed in the footsteps of his father by training Ballabriggs to win this year's renewal but the race will be remembered for the deaths of two horses, Ornais and Dooneys Gate; the field bypassed two fences on the second circuit to avoid the stricken animals. The Telegraph reported that BBC coverage of the race had been criticised for failing to openly refer to the deaths until the end of the broadcast. According to a report in today's Observer, changes made to the course in the past 12 months allowed the fences to be bypassed - if those changes had not been carried out, the likelihood is the race would have been stopped and declared void. Other welfare issues were prevalent on a very warm day. Several jockeys dismounted immediately after crossing the line, including Jason Maguire, Tony McCoy and Ruby Walsh, as there appeared a significant risk horses would collapse through exhaustion and dehydration after completing the four and a half mile marathon. The TV pictures of Maguire's walk to the winner's enclosure conveyed a scene of outright bedlam. Later Andy Stewart, owner of Ornais, responded by hitting back at much of the criticism aimed at the race.

This evening conditional rider Peter Toole remains in a serious condition in an induced coma after his mount Classic Fly fell at the first in Saturday's Maghull Novices' Chase. We wish him well.

Friday was Ladies' Day at Aintree; overall winner of the competition was 33 year old Lystra Adams, whose distinctive headgear obviously impressed stewards and judges alike. She walked away with prize money of £5,000 and a holiday in Saint Lucia.

Finally, for those with a bit of money left over from their National winnings... George Stubbs' Gimcrack On Newmarket Heath comes up for auction at Christie's on July 5th. The painting is guaranteed to sell for at least £20 million.

Aintree Grand National 2011

2011-04-08T17:24:00.002+01:00

For those who are keen to make their own selections, my Twitter Guide to this year's runners may prove of very limited use. For everyone else, here's a view...

1. Backstage Going well last year when brought down. Had this as his target all season. Trainer knows what's required having won the 2007 running with Silver Birch.

2. Big Fella Thanks Fourth last year, appearing to run out of petrol losing third spot on the long run-in. Sixth the year before, so knows how to get round.

3. Don't Push It Last year's winner is another year older and has an extra five pounds to carry.

4. State Of Play Finished third last year and fourth the year before. 2006 Hennessy winner has a nice racing weight although trainer thinks his charge can't win.

5. Golden Kite Munster National winner sneaks in at the bottom of the handicap and looks the best big-priced outsider to these eyes (80/1 bet365, Victor Chandler and Stan James.)

6. Oscar Time Sam Waley-Cohen finished fifth on 40/1 chance Liberthine in 2007. Oscar Time, part-owned by his father, is taken to give the amateur a decent ride round. Expect mayhem if he becomes the first amateur to win the Gold Cup and the National!

Good luck everyone!

A Twitter Guide to the 2011 Grand National final declarations

2011-04-08T10:47:00.008+01:00

Please find below, as requested (by one person only), the updated Twitter Guide to take account of this year's Grand National final declarations. Comments compiled on each runner using Twitter's 140 character limit. You may wish to note that, at the time of writing, amongst those bookmakers *not* offering a quarter the odds five places are Betfred, Coral, William Hill and Ladbrokes... Tut, tut.

DON'T PUSH IT Gave McCoy his first National victory in this race last year. Top weight makes it a tough task this time
TIDAL BAY Quirky customer with plenty of ability. Sixth in the Gold Cup, not guaranteed to stay or take to the fences
VIC VENTURI 2009 Becher Chase winner looked unlucky to be brought down when going well last year
WHAT A FRIEND Part owned by Sir Alex Ferguson, failed by a nose to take third from Kauto Star in the Gold Cup. Decent ground essential
MAJESTIC CONCORDE Won the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown on his first try at three miles; will he stay?
OR NOIR DE SOMOSA Ninth in the 2008 Grande Chase de Paris. Now registered with Pipe yard - 50/1 in places and could be anything
DOONEYS GATE Fourth behind Always Waining in the Topham last year; prefers cut underfoot
BIG FELLA THANKS Sixth in 2009, fourth last year. Now with new trainer and new owners. Place prospects
THE TOTHER ONE Quirky inidivdual who woudn't be one to trust implicitly. Last won October 2008
BALLABRIGGS Trevor Hemmings owned. One time favourite for this before going down to the smart Skippers Brig at Kelso
THE MIDNIGHT CLUB Willie Mullins trains the current market leader; Ruby Walsh booked to ride
NICHE MARKET 2009 Irish National winner had this race as target all season. Lost his place after Canal Turn on second circuit last year
SILVER BY NATURE Hacked up under top weight in Haydock National trial. Lucinda Rusell's grey is easy to spot, as is @petescu. Wants soft
BACKSTAGE Well in contention when hampered and unseated rider at 20th last year
CHIEF DAN GEORGE Only two winners this season for Cumbrian trainer Jimmy Moffat doesn't bode well
SILVER BY NATURE Hacked up under top weight in Haydock National trial. Lucinda Russell's grey is easy to spot, as is @petescu
CALGARY BAY Jockey Hadden Frost hopes to emulate his father's victory on Little Polvier (1989); a big horse for the fences but stable form poor
KILLYGLEN Pulled up in last year's Scottish National when trained by Howard Johnson
OSCAR TIME Sam Waley-Cohen bids to become the first amateur to ride Gold Cup / Grand National double - horse part-owned by his father
QUINZ Impressive winner of Racing Post Chase. Young horse who may lack thatlittle bit of experience
BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE Suffered injury when second to Majestic Concorde at Leopardstown. Undergone surgery; Davy Russell rides
COMPLY OR DIE Won this in 2008; getting on now but owes nobody
QUOLIBET JP McManus owned grey pulled up in the Cross Country Chase at the Cheltenham Festival
GRAND SLAM HERO Chestnut gelding owned by Dai Walters who has pumped plenty of money into Ffos Las racecourse
STATE OF PLAY Finished 3rd and 4th in last two renewals; will think he's let loose with 10-6. 25/1 looks big - trainer states he can't win
KING FONTAINE Well beaten in the Haydock National trial won by Silver By Nature
IN COMPLIANCE Never won beyond two miles six furlongs
HELLO BUD Commendable fifth last year but now aged 13 and chances are his best days have passed by
WEST END ROCKER Dour stayer who won Warwick Classic Chase before being pulled up in Haydock National trial. Not without a chance if taking to big fences
SANTA' S SON Won Wetherby's Castleford Chase over two miles in 2008 - unlikely to stay
BLUESEA CRACKER Bay mare who won last year's Irish National. Recently purchased by JP McManus
THAT'S RHYTHM Owned by 'Don't Tell Henry'; fell in past two Scottish Nationals
SURFACE TO AIR Won the Summer National in 2008. Off the track until last month - follow trainer's Twitter updates @nhtrainer
PIRAYA Trained by @DavidPipeRacing, pulled up on last two starts
CAN'T BUY TIME Fell at the Canal Turn on the first circuit last year; been out of sorts since
CHARACTER BUILDING Seventh last year and a decent prep in this year's Grimthorpe at Doncaster. Plenty of market interest, Nina Carberry rides
ORNAIS Owned by the Stewart family, has been running in hunter chases recently
ARBOR SUPREME Should handle ground, 8lbs well in, fell at Chair last year
ROYAL ROSA 12 year old owned by Andrea & Graham Wylie. Second in Becher last November, unseated at 14th last April
SKIPPERS BRIG Defeat of Ballabriggs last time reads well but prefers soft ground
GOLDEN KITE Munster National winner trained by former jock Adrian Maguire. Handles ground - there are worse 66/1 shots

Ladies' Day - Aintree 2011

2011-04-07T20:32:00.004+01:00

Very quick notes bashed out very quickly for Aintree's Friday card which has also been marketed as Liverpool's Ladies' Day...

The feature Melling Chase (3.05) sees ten face the starter. Albertas Run won the Ryanair at Cheltenham and is priced up favourite to take the second leg of this double for the second year in succession. The key to Jonjo O'Neill's horse is decent ground - the going is officially described as good to soft, good in places. Those brave enough to oppose are spoilt for choice as a case can be made for a few. On official ratings both Master Minded and Somersby have the beating of the market leader but neither has won over the distance; Ruby Walsh has said on a couple of occasions that Master Minded needs cut underfoot these days while Somersby was tapped for toe at Cheltenham - he may appreciate an extra half mile here but he may not appreciate this speedy track. There's also a school of thought that says Kalahari King can gain revenge over his Cheltenham conqueror on this flat track with a furlong less to run. French Opera has won over this course and over the distance and rates a speculative each-way play priced at 11/1 with Coral this evening.

I was disappointed to see The Giant Bolster unseat Rodi Greene in the RSA at Cheltenham. Tom Scudamore takes the ride in the 2.30 after Greene subsequently displaced a bone in his neck when parting company with 50/1 shot Diamond Twister at Lingfield. The Giant Bolster had started sluggishly at Cheltenham and hadn't looked the fastest previously but connections think they have a Gold Cup horse in the making. This fast track wouldn't be certain to suit, a comment that applies to likely favourite Wayward Prince. Robinson Collonges never went a stride at Cheltenham but doesn't look guaranteed to stay the trip at this level while Master Of The Hall finished a tired sixth in the RSA but would be a danger to all if fully recovered. The talented Quito De La Roque who has won five of his nine starts is respected but all those victories have come on soft / heavy ground. That being the case, I'll take an each-way interest in Sheena West's well-regarded Golan Way who comes to this fresh.

Back In Focus would be of interest in the 4.15 if the ground were soft while Kilcrea Kim is dropped to handicap company in the 4.50 but makes little appeal in an event with 21 opponents. If pressed for a selection in the concluding mares' race on Ladies' Day, I'd give Tante Sissi the nod - in the Weekender Alan King rates Tante Sissi his strongest chance of the day.

Quick thoughts on Thursday's card - Aintree 2011

2011-04-06T16:59:00.004+01:00

Very quick comments on the first day of a meeting that I've always found particularly tricky.

Only six runners in the Betfair Bowl (3.05) but at the prices I'm inclined to oppose Denman twenty days after his excellent second in the Gold Cup; he had a hard enough race that day and at the age of eleven isn't getting any younger. Having finished second in the previous two runnings of the Gold Cup (behind Kauto Star in 2009 and Imperial Commander in 2010), Denman fell two out in this race in 2009 and also disappointed when fourth in the Guinness Gold Cup at Punchestown in 2010. On official ratings Punchestowns is the next best horse - he has 19 pounds to find but he would surely have been beaten by Pasco the last time had that one not choked up Kempton's long home straight. Good ground is the key to Nacarat although there's a slight question mark about his ability to see out this trip at this level. Carole's Legacy was second at the Festival, so the fresh horses are of most interest. Punchestowns isn't totally written off but Nacarat beat Deep Purple six and a half lengths in the Charlie Hall at Wetherby last November - Nacarat get the vote.

Many see the opener as Big Buck's versus Grand Crus round two after the World Hurdle three weeks ago. If ever Big Buck's was to be beaten it was surely at Cheltenham the last time with the way the race was run and Walsh dropping his stick before the last. I saw Carlito Brigante win the Coral Cup in something of a common canter but he's upped in class here and on official ratings has 34 pounds to make with the favourite. The layers aren't taking many chances by offering 10/1 this one - he wasn't stopping at Cheltenham but isn't guaranteed to stay and I note he won a Flat handicap at Leopardstown over a mile just under two years ago! No selection.

Zarkander's victory in the Triumph was impressive but the gelding will be no price in the 2.35 while Herons Well would be the suggestion to those looking for a sporting each-way shout in the Fox Hunters' Chase.

Medermit was a little disappointing in the Arkle but is given another chance over an extra half mile at 4.50; Wishfull Thinking will be popular and matches the selection on official ratings while Paul Nicholls' Royal Charm is given every respect.

Five years on...

2011-04-03T19:40:00.001+01:00

Mrs Tips would be the first to confirm I'm not a great one for birthdays and/or anniversaries but I couldn't let today pass without reference to this blog's first post which went out five long years ago. That initial post highlighted a couple of themes that have resurfaced on occasions - a general antipathy towards (the institution of) marriage and random racing stories thrown in to distract from the distinct lack of winners.

Here's to the next five years!

A Twitter Guide to the 2011 Grand National entries

2011-04-03T19:01:00.006+01:00

A Twitter Guide to the top 44 entries in this year's National. Why stop at 44? Well, I simply ran out of steam... As in previous years, the Twitter Guide has been compiled using Twitter's 140 character limit for each entry and, once again, is likely to prove of no practical use whatsoever in finding the winner. At the time of writing, the following layers offer a quarter the odds five places: bet365, Boylesports, Victor Chandler, BlueSquare, Paddy Power and 888sport.

DON'T PUSH IT Gave McCoy his first National victory in this race last year. Top weight makes it a tough task this time
TIDAL BAY Quirky customer with plenty of ability. Sixth in the Gold Cup, not guaranteed to stay or take to the fences
MIDNIGHT CHASE Likes to race prominently, fifth in the Gold Cup, has more than his share of weight
SYNCHRONISED Welsh and Midlands National winner - had a hard race to finish third in this year's renewal of the latter. Prefer cut underfoot
VIC VENTURI 2009 Becher Chase winner looked unlucky to be brought down when going well last year
WHAT A FRIEND Part owned by Sir Alex Ferguson, failed by a nose to take third from Kauto Star in the Gold Cup. Decent ground essential
MAJESTIC CONCORDE Won the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown on his first try at three miles; will he stay?
OR NOIR DE SOMOSA Ninth in the 2008 Grande Chase de Paris. Now registered with Pipe yard - 50/1 in places and could be anything
DOONEYS GATE Fourth behind Always Waining in the Topham last year; prefers cut underfoot
SCOTSIRISH Second in last year's Topham; done most of his racing around two to two and a half miles
BIG FELLA THANKS Sixth in 2009, fourth last year. Now with new trainer and new owners. Place prospects
BALLABRIGGS Trevor Hemmings owned. One time favourite for this before going down to the smart Skippers Brig at Kelso
THE TOTHER ONE Quirky individual who wouldn't be one to trust implicitly. Last won October 2008
NICHE MARKET 2009 Irish National winner had this race as target all season. Lost his place after Canal Turn on second circuit last year
THE MIDNIGHT CLUB Willie Mullins trains the current market leader; Ruby Walsh booked to ride
BACKSTAGE Well in contention when hampered and unseated rider at 20th last year
CHIEF DAN GEORGE Only two winners this season for Cumbrian trainer Jimmy Moffat doesn't bode well
SILVER BY NATURE Hacked up under top weight in Haydock National trial. Lucinda Russell's grey is easy to spot, as is Peter Scudamore
NOTRE PERE Former Guinness Gold Cup winner at Punchestown looks out of sorts these days
CALGARY BAY Jockey Hadden Frost hopes to emulate his father's victory on Little Polvier (1989); a big horse for the fences but stable form poor
KILLYGLEN Pulled up in last year's Scottish National when trained by Howard Johnson
OSCAR TIME Sam Waley-Cohen bids to become the first amateur to ride Gold Cup / Grand National double - horse part-owned by his father
BALLYTRIM Well beaten behind Bluesea Cracker in last year's Irish National
BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE Suffered injury when second to Majestic Concorde at Leopardstown. Undergone surgery; Davy Russell rides
COMPLY OR DIE Won this in 2008; getting on now but owes nobody
NEDZER'S RETURN Never won beyond two miles six furlongs
NORTHERN ALLIANCE Fifth in 2010 Galway Plate behind Finger Onthe Pulse, fifth in Kerry National in September. Behind In Compliance last time
QUINZ Impressive winner of Racing Post Chase. Young horse who may lack that little bit of experience
QUOLIBET JP McManus owned grey pulled up in the Cross Country Chase at the Cheltenham Festival
GRAND SLAM HERO Chestnut gelding owned by Dai Walters who has pumped plenty of money into Ffos Las racecourse
ROLL ALONG Well beaten at Ascot last time - 66/1 shot
KING FONTAINE Well beaten in the Haydock National trial won by Silver By Nature
STATE OF PLAY Finished third and fourth in last two renewals and will think he's been let loose with 10-6. 25/1 looks big
HELLO BUD Commendable fifth last year but now aged 13 and chances are his best days have passed by
IN COMPLIANCE Never won beyond two miles six furlongs
SANTA'S SON Won Wetherby's Castleford Chase over two miles in 2008 - unlikely to stay
WEST END ROCKER Dour stayer who won Warwick Classic Chase before being pulled up in Haydock National trial. Not without a chance if taking to big fences
BLUESEA CRACKER Bay mare who won last year's Irish National. Recently purchased by JP McManus
CAN'T BUY TIME Fell at the Canal Turn on the first circuit last year; been out of sorts since
CHARACTER BUILDING Seventh last year and a decent prep in this year's Grimthorpe at Doncaster. Plenty of market interest, Nina Carberry rides
ORNAIS Owned by the Stewart family, has been running in hunter chases recently
PIRAYA David Pipe trained grey, pulled up on last two starts
SURFACE TO AIR Won the Summer National in 2008. Off the track until last month - follow trainer's Twitter updates @nhtrainer
THAT'S RHYTHM Owned by 'Don't Tell Henry'; fell in past two Scottish Nationals

Calm before the storm?

2011-04-01T20:48:00.004+01:00

Tomorrow's media focus will be on the William Hill Lincoln, a race I've tended to avoid as I've always thought it something of a lottery. However I note four favourites have obliged in the past ten years and two other winners have come from the top three in the market, so perhaps it's time for a re-think. In the same timeframe only two have carried more than nine stones to victory - Babodana (9-10) in 2004 and Penitent (9-2) last year - while six four-year-olds have collected and six have won from a single-figure draw. I've heard one whisper during the week- for Richard Fahey's Our Joe Mac - but I see stable jockey Paul Hanagan prefers Irish Heartbeat. Old habits die hard - I'm not going to play.

The two NH cards on offer have a decidedly low-key look, but this time next week everyone will be talking about the Grand National. The jumps story to grab today's headlines has been Paddy Brennan's decision to quit as Nigel Twiston-Davies' top jockey. Those who have followed Alan Lee's comments in The Times will not have been surprised by this news as the scribe has dropped several hints to this effect over the past couple of months. Today's Racing Post quotes Brennan as making a reference to 'blood being thicker than water'; Brennan will keep the ride on 2010 Gold Cup winner Imperial Commander.

Ruby Walsh rides three for Nicholls at Chepstow tomorrow including Twist Pistol in the opener but on ratings Caroline Keevil's Bally Legend is not without a chance in that race. The gelding was well-beaten in a Newbury handicap last time but back in novice company here he looks worth an each-way wager at around the 10/1 mark - Ian Popham claims a valuable three pounds. Super Directa gives weight to all in the 3.20, never easy on soft ground, and he trailled in fifth on his only start over this trip at Fakenham on New Year's Day. I wouldn't be tempted at a short price but it's difficult to make a case for several of the others.

In the 4.25 course winner R De Rien Sivola doesn't have that many miles on the clock and some smart novice hurdle form to her name but she fell in a Hereford handicap chase the last time. Returning to hurdles here she has six pounds in hand on her chase rating; priced 5/1 favourite in the tissue she makes some appeal in a difficult-looking event.

Plenty will think David Pipe's E Street Boy a handicap snip in the Bridgend Designer Outlet Handicap Hurdle but he'll be priced accordingly and both Speedy Directa and Gainsborough's Art won last time out. Crackerjac Boy ran well here three weeks ago and looks an each-way play against the favourite at around 10/1.

Aidan Coleman has a mention for Venetia Williams' two runners on his blog - Rileyev is an obvious call in the two mile handicap chase at 5.30 but he clearly expects improvement from Emperor's Choice in what looks a better than average bumper. I'll have a small each-way bet at 12/1 or bigger.

Bits and pieces...

2011-03-27T17:00:00.021+01:00

Regular readers will know that Cheltenham was something of an unmitigated disaster for yours truly this year but a couple more points come to mind... Full marks to Ruby Walsh on two scores. Firstly, Walsh, who had dropped his whip just before the final flight in the World Hurdle, knew Big Buck's had saved his bacon and told it exactly as it was in the post-race interviews; secondly, the same jockey made a particular point of going to congratulate Gold Cup winning rider Sam Waley-Cohen as the horses circled waiting to return to the unsaddling enclosures. Well done Ruby Walsh on both counts.

The latest Cheltenham fashions included horse shoes that look like hooves which were available for purchase at £1,300 a pair. The latest extreme-sports craze is apparently 'horse-boarding' where a competitor stands on a skateboard and is pulled by horse at speeds up to 35 mph!

The best bit of news I heard at the this year's Festival - a colleague had recently purchased an annual membership badge at Hereford for just £100. With 19 fixtures scheduled throughout the year, that works out at £5.26 per meet - what a bargain!

The Daily Telegraph boasts a long, proud tradition of horse racing coverage and clearly Martin Smith has been delving into the their archives. Kings, Queens & Four-Legged Athletes: The Daily Telegraph Book Of Horse Racing was published recently and recalls many a memorable racing occasion. Available from Amazon at £13.79, free postage & packing thrown in.

Finally I have a confession to make. I'm not quite sure but I think I'm starting to develop a crush on the teacher taking Paddy Power's adult education class, in much the same way as Peter Kay has a fancy for Clare from work. Maffs has never been one of my stronger subjects (nor spellng for that matter), so I thought I'd join Victor (Meldrew?) and William (Hague?) and ask for the extra lessons. Of course, it's highly unlikely such classes, held weekly in Room 6B, will ever result in any improvement in the quality of the tips published here, but I'll let you know how I get on anyway.

Newbury one week after Cheltenham

2011-03-25T16:03:00.013Z

One short week after Sam Waley-Cohen rode Long Run to victory in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, much of the press foucs moves to the Flat, with the Dubai World Cup meeting at Meydan and the Winter Derby at Lingfield.

I'm sticking with the jumpers at Newbury where the two mares' finales form the backbone of the card. Ten go in the novices' chase at 2.15 with Nicky Henderson's Kerada likely to be priced up favourite as she bids for a four-timer. I'm inclined to oppose on grounds of value alone and a quick look through the form shows that six of her seven wins to date have come when the word soft has appeared in the going; the exception was a bumper race in 2008. She beat Asturienne six lengths with something in hand at this course back in January but that one reopposes tomorrow with a 14 pound pull in the weights - the handicapper looks to have given Alan King's charge every chance. Having said that, writing in the Weekender, King doesn't rate her one of his best chances of the week although the hint is the cheekpieces helped at Plumpton last time (Evella well beaten) and they're applied again tomorrow. Trainer's comment: 'She has bags of ability.' The bottom two are set to carry more than their long handicap weight while the five-year-old Sway is declared doubtful. Cool Friend is priced up at 12/1 in the tissue and makes some appeal. You have to forgive her last run at Exeter where, after a mistake early on, she never featured and she has more a lot more second places to her name (seven) than wins (three) but she should appreciate the better ground. I'll back Cool Friend each way provided she's priced up around the 12/1 mark.

The mares' novices' hurdle finale looks difficult. Nicky Henderson won this last year with Ryde Back; this year he saddles four of the 18 runners with stable jock Barry Geraghty aboard Line Freedom. I'll sit this one out.

In the opener Two Kisses is consistent and a good yardstick but she's had a long season and you suspect something will come to beat her. Moose Moran was well behind the filly the last time but prior to that Nicky Henderson's grey had finished fourth to Kumbeshwar at Sandown - that one went down a neck to What A Charm in the Fred Winter at the Festival. At one point connections were thinking of the Triumph Hurdle for Moose Moran who held a rating of 100 on the Flat; Moose Moran is given another chance.

Two jockey bookings catch the eye in the 3.25 - Ruby Walsh on Maktu and Barry Geraghty on Theatre Dance while two trainers stand out on recent form - Charlie Longsdon (Rey Nacarado) has had six winners and six seconds from 22 runners in the past fortnight while David Arbuthnot has sent out three winners and a second from his last five runners. Winterwood finished second to Bai Zhu earlier today so wouldn't be certain to take part but Ogee will have his supporters after finishing fourth in the Grimthorpe at Doncaster three weeks ago. Theatre Dance should handle the ground - he gets a tentative vote in a trappy-looking affair provided he's priced around 7/1.

Kid Cassidy looks the one in the John Haine Memorial Novices' Hurdle but he'll be no price while in the bumper I'll keep an eye on Jumps Road who was well-beaten behind Ericht (subsequently sixth in Festival bumper) and Bygones In Brid (18th in Festival bumper) last time but looked more suited to this distance at Fontwell the time before. Word is Broomfield is highly-regarded but the gelding was slightly disappointing here three weeks ago.

Champion Chase Day 2011 - a perspective

2011-03-20T16:50:00.019Z

We received an early reminder on the crowded train to Cheltenham that, with St Patrick's Day falling on Thursday, Wednesday was Ladies' Day at this year's Festival. Two smartly dressed members of the fairer sex stood right next to us and promptly took off their heels, thereby revealing carelessly painted toenails and assorted bunions; all of a sudden the 'full English' started to weigh a little heavier on the stomach...

The Virgin ticket inspector, a polite wag, politely asked passengers to remove bags off seats so that 'some of the humans could sit down'. The train pulled in on time, the ladies slipped their heels back on and everyone left the station with an air of keen anticipation. My colleague and I had decided to walk to the track, taking liquid refreshment at The Rotunda Tavern along the way, where the Guinness went down well and was very reasonably priced.

On the long run to the course we were bombarded by leaflets, free offers and the like. A charming young lady with long blonde hair approached and promptly gave me (and several others) a scarf, dubious yellow in colour, with Betfair written on it in large black lettering. This struck me as something of an ambush marketing stunt; racing is certainly less strict than some other sporting events I've attended (Wimbledon, for example) where you're obliged to discard offending freebies or entry is forbidden. As soon as I was on course a punter came and enquired where I'd acquired my scarf. 'You're not going to believe this', I replied, 'but a smiling young lady approached me on the way up here and just gave it to me.' Barely seems plausible, does it? Just for half a second I think he thought I was having a laugh...

On The Morning Line one layer had reported Tuesday's turnover down 50%. The ring in Tatts felt half full on Wednesday. Ten minutes before the RSA, I saw something that would have been nigh on impossible in years gone by - a woman freely wheeled a child in a buggy between the various bookmakers' pitches. She stopped at one as the youngster seemed particularly interested in AiteenThirtythree at 15/2, yet right next door the same horse was available at 17/2. Tsk, tsk.

A paddock tip before the first, '....one of the greys will win...', proved prescient; I just wasn't cute enough to take it seriously. Oscars Well travelled extremely well in the next and was considered the moral victor by many but there was a surfeit of disappointed backers when Bostons Angel fought back to beat Jessies Dream a neck in the RSA.

A feature of the Champion Chase market was the strength behind Master Minded who went off 2/1 favourite; I was surprised as last year Ruby had indicated that the gelding appeared reluctant to let himself down on quicker ground. Blog selection Big Zeb looked to have seen off that particular threat two from home but he had no answer to Sizing Europe after the last. My colleague, attending the Festival for the first time, was on the winner at 10/1, or so I thought... Meeting up after the race, I gave him the thumbs up but there was an air of abject dejection that told me all was not well. Distracted by placing a bet on French Opera for his partner, he'd quoted the wrong racecard number to the layer and only realised after the off; he'd mistakenly bet Master Minded instead of Sizing Europe and had only checked his partner's ticket. I wasn't too hard on him as years ago I'd done something similar at Ludlow except on that occasion I was lucky enough to collect on the mistaken wager. Back at the office the next day others were less forgiving, describing the mishap as 'a schoolboy error'. It was the closest we came to a winner all day.

Carlito Brigante won the Coral Cup in something of a common canter but if I heard a later tannoy announcement correctly, jockey Davy Russell weighed in two pounds heavier than he had weighed out. That generated some discussion on the terraces.

The most stirring finish of the day was in the Fred Winter where What A Charm, in receipt of more than a stone from Kumbeshwar, prevailed by a neck; by this time my back had gone and the legs were about to follow suit.

A number of runners in the bumper were skitty beforehand and reluctant to go to post. Willie Mullins' Lord Gale threw amateur jockey Mr P W Mullins right in front of us. The chestnut gelding was loose for a while and when eventually remounted was still very reluctant; in the race he pulled up inside the final furlong. Winner Cheltenian cost £210,000, Ann and Alan Potts' Go All The Way cost £310,000 - this one was noted doing his best work in the final four furlongs. 33/1 chance Aupcharlie caught the eye and looked a possible winner at one point while Harry Rednapp's Bygones In Brid finished well down the field in 18th but was described by Alan King as the best he has ever entered in this event.

Stories were swapped in The Centaur after racing. There it dawned on me that, had I undertaken the racecourse's offer - pay full Tatts price for a ticket and get a full refund if a lady trains a winner - I would have been entitled to the refund; Jessica Harrington trained the RSA winner Bostons Angel. In Thursday's Times Alan Lee reported 250 spectators had taken up the offer and that had cost the racecourse £10,000.

Not much luck on an overcast day but the Guinness was good and, no doubt, I'll do it all again next year.

Midlands Grand National 2011

2011-03-18T19:48:00.005Z

After Long Run's historic win at Cheltenham earlier today, the racing roadshow moves on with the Midlands Grand National the feature at Uttoxeter tomorrow. 18 runners face the starter where the going is described as soft, good to soft in places. I'm guessing the ground will be pretty tacky as it has been drying out for a few days now. Top weight Synchronised won this last year but carries another seven pounds on this occasion and has to give a minimum of 13 pounds to the rest of the field - it looks a big ask. Synchronised's victory apart, in the previous eight runnings the biggest weight the winner has shouldered is 10-9; half the field have to carry more than their allotted handicap weight but in 2002 The Bunny Boiler was nine pounds out of the handicap when winning at odds of 5/1. Paul Nicholls' Tricky Trickster has had a breathing operation since we last saw him in November and has the Aintree National as his target. Companero took the Eider at Newcastle three short weeks ago in atrocious ground (Belon Gale and Ballyfoy pulled up) - he's 11 now and may not have had sufficient time to recover. I like Richard Lee's diminutive gelding Le Beau Bai; ideally he needs more rain in the ground and does find himself getting detached in his races but at 12/1 with Skybet he's worth an each-way wager in a difficult-looking event - the majority of layers are offering a quarter the odds four places.

Burnt fingers

2011-03-18T19:15:00.003Z

An old boss of mine used to say, 'If you've got bad news, look them in the eye and give it to them straight.' So here goes - the profit/loss figures for the blog's highlighted selections at this year's Festival to a £1 level stake (as always, settled at SP):

Tuesday
Peddlers Cross WIN 9/2 - second
Medermit WIN 11/4f - fourth
Banjaxed Girl E/W 8/1 - seventh

Wednesday
Big Zeb WIN 3/1 - second
Aiteen Thirtythree WIN 8/1 - pulled up
The Giant Bolster E/W 20/1 - unseated rider
So Young WIN 2/1f - third

Thursday
Grand Crus WIN 7/2 - second
Fiveforthree E/W 12/1 - eighth
Knockara Beau E/W 33/1 - fourth; returned 4.62

Friday
Imperial Commander WIN 4/1 - pulled up
What A Friend E/W 25/1 - fourth
Kilcrea Kim E/W 6/1 - fifth

Total wagered: £13.00
Total returned: £4.62
Profit/loss -£8.38
Loss as % of turnover 64.46%

The figures make for grim reading, with not one single winner all week; Knockara Beau's fine fourth in the Pertemps Final prevented a complete whitewash. The performances of note (!) finished second - Peddlers Cross, Big Zeb and Grand Crus, while What A Friend ran a stormer in the Gold Cup but failed by a nose to make third.

I'm away to sit in the corner and lick my wounds.

Cheltenham Festival 2011 - Friday

2011-03-17T13:05:00.005Z

Friday's Gold Cup is the highlight of the whole meeting; here's a couple of stats for starters... Last ten-year-old to win the race - Cool Dawn (1998); last horse older than ten to win - What A Myth (1969); last six-year-old to win - Mill House (1963); last amateur rider to win - Mr Jim Wilson aboard Little Owl in 1981. Last year's winner Imperial Commander is sure to put up a stern defence of his title this year - the current champion has won four of his five chase starts at this track. Long Run is a precocious talent and his performance in the King George was exceptional; his jumping was much better on that occasion and he has to be considered a serious contender. Having said that, the current price of 5/1 offers no real value and if it's close on the run up the hill, amateur pilot Sam Waley-Cohen is likely to be outfought by a professional jock. I prefer Kauto Star to Denman on this ground - I always thought Denman better with cut underfoot; it will be crucial for Kauto to get into a rhythm early on. It looks very open this year - I'm going to side with Imperial Commander (9/2 this evening with William Hill). From the outsiders I've considered both China Rock and What A Friend in the past few weeks. The former doesn't look guaranteed to stay - the majority opinion in discussions with colleagues after racing yesterday was Mouse Morris' gelding was unlikely to see out the trip. That being the case, I'll take a small each-way interest in What A Friend, part-owned by Sir Alex Ferguson. This one is entitled to improve on the better ground; although he's been called some names in the past, he's not without ability and the fitting of first-time blinkers should help. Coral are currently offering 40/1.

I fancied Bobs Worth for Wednesday's Neptune but connections preferred the Albert Bartlett instead. He's no value at around 3/1 and has yet to race over this distance; I'll bet Kilcrea Kim each-way (10/1 Coral).

Invariably the Triumph is a rough race; you could make a case for several which is why I won't be getting involved. Let's just hope we see a great renewal of the Gold Cup in 2011, Cheltenham's centenary year.

Quick picks on World Hurdle day 2011

2011-03-17T08:26:00.004Z

No winners and too many Guinness at Cheltenham yesterday - report to follow.

Strapped for time, so just a couple of tentative suggestions for St Patrick's Day...

World Hurdle: I'll chance Grand Crus (currently 100/30 at William Hill) against favourite Big Buck's and take an each-way interest in Fiveforthree (14/1 Paddy Power).

Pertemps Hurdle: Knockara Beau each-way (25/1).

Cheltenham Festival 2011 - Wednesday

2011-03-15T18:52:00.016Z

Wednesday's feature is the Champion Chase due off at 3.20. On ratings there's little to choose between 2009 winner Master Minded and last year's victor Big Zeb. Normally in such circumstances I would tend to favour the younger horse, Master Minded, but ten-year-old Big Zeb doesn't have a lot of miles on the clock and will appreciate the good ground. Last year Master Minded finished a well-beaten fourth in this - immediately after the race Ruby Walsh indicated his mount may have been feeling the quicker ground. Paul Jones unearthed an interesting stat in his Cheltenham Betting Guide - of the last 12 Arkle winners to contest this race the following year five have won, five have finished second and two have claimed third spot; Sizing Europe is 9/1 with Coral this evening and makes some appeal as an each-way wager. There's a suspicion Somersby may get outpaced but then stay on up the hill while Woolcombe Folly has progressed rapidly through the season and has some more to find here. Captain Cee Bee isn't lightly dimissed and was regarded by McCoy as his best chance of a winner at last year's Festival; in the event the gelding finished down the field in the Arkle after breaking a blood vessel. Having said all that he was beaten just under eight lengths by Big Zeb in December; Big Zeb is taken to repeat last year's win.

Time For Rupert is the clear form choice and favourite for the RSA Chase at 2.40. He has been touted as banker material by many with the result the market has had a lop-sided look to it for months. Tonight they bet 9/1 the field bar one; that looks tempting. Picking holes in Rupert's case isn't easy but he would prefer more cut underfoot and he did miss an intended engagement at Cheltenham in January due to a low-grade infection. On official ratings Paul Nicholls' Aiteen Thirtythree has just two pounds to find with the favourite yet the picture is complicated somewhat by Walsh opting to ride Mikael D'haguenet for Willie Mullins - Nicholls appeared particularly frustrated by that decision. Wymott is interesting in first time cheekpieces and I have to give a mention to blog favourite The Giant Bolster who may find them going a bit fast on quicker ground but will certainly stay the trip - connections are convinced they have the makings of a Gold Cup horse. I'm going out on a limb here - in the past both Mikael D'haguenet and Aiteen Thirtythree haven't totally convinced with their jumping but of the two I prefer Aiteen Thirtythree (9/1 Coral) as a play against the favourite and I'll take an each-way chance with The Giant Bolster (18/1 Paddy Power).

In the Neptune Nicky Henderson's Bobs Worth looked something to have a bet on in this but the yard has declared Minella Class instead; Bobs Worth appears to be heading for the Albert Bartlett on Friday. In which case I'm not inclined to oppose the Irish runners - I'll side with Willie Mullins' market leader So Young.

Others sporting each-way chances I'll consider on course: Aberdale in the opener - Skybet pay a quarter the odds four places in this race; Ballyhaunis in the Coral Cup at 16/1 (most firms paying a quarter the odds five places) and Raise The Beat who'll handle underfoot conditions in the concluding bumper - Harry Redknapp's Bygones In Brid is a 25/1 chance in the same race...

Good luck everyone!

Cheltenham Festival 2011 - Tuesday

2011-03-14T18:54:00.005Z

Tomorrow the show begins... The Festival is a marathon not a sprint - in the past a cautious approach on the first day has served quite well. This year there are more temptations than normal, with the bookmakers already talking about impending doom if the four favourites oblige (Cue Card, Medermit, Menorah and Quevega); such talk looks like a layers' ploy to increase turnover.

Even without defending champion Binocular, the Champion Hurdle (3.20) is a very open race. Of the market leaders I much prefer Menorah and the unbeaten Peddlers Cross. Top-rated Hurricane Fly may want more cut, a comment that also applies to Oscar Whisky, while Dunguib has had an interrupted preparation. Khyber Kim's second in last year's race reads well but on official ratings Mille Chief has a bit to make up with several of these and five-year-olds have a poor record in the race. Peddlers Cross did the blog a favour at this meeting last year so Peddlers Cross (9/2 with Stan James this evening) gets the nod.

Favourites don't have a good record in the Arkle (2.05) recording just one win in the last ten runnings (Azertyuiop in 2003) but the biggest priced winner in that time was 9/1 chance Well Chief (2004) so the market has been a reasonable guide. On the book it looks between Medermit, Ghizao and Finian's Rainbow with Irish raider Realt Dubh respected. Alan King has been bullish about Medermit in the build-up and there was plenty to like about his victory over two and a half miles at Sandown the last time as he travelled and jumped well. Ghizao is top-rated but owner Andy Stewart believes Medermit is the one to beat. Finian's Rainbow didn't impress with his fencing at Warwick and appears to have drifted in the betting today. Medermit is the selection.

In the opener (1.30) I'm a Cue Card fan but won't be getting involved at around 2/1. Interesting to see Ruby Walsh on Nicholls' Al Ferof while connections of Marsh Warbler have taken this option rather than Friday's Triumph Hurdle as the ground is likely to have more cut. The four-year-old is one I like but has it all to do racing against his elders here.

Trends for the 2.40 point to a horse that is fairly prominent in the market and carries less than 11 stones - both Reve De Sivola and Sunnyhillboy fit the profile but neither looks guaranteed to stay. I wondered whether Razor Royale was showing signs of coming back to form last time at Kempton.

Having won the last two renewals of the mares' hurdle (4.40) Quevega is unsurprisingly priced up favourite. On official ratings Banjaxed Girl is the next best in the race - she makes some appeal each-way at 14/1 (Betfred). Sam Twiston-Davies rides although I note stable jockey Paddy Brennan is on the shorter-priced L'accordioniste who disappointed at Ascot where she didn't jump well but the mare is quite clearly held in high regard.

Three selections for tomorrow in an attempt to keep my powder dry for Wednesday...

Good luck everyone but remember the old saying - Beware the Ides of March - the day Julius Caesar was killed in 44 B.C.

Sensational start to Festival week

2011-03-13T17:07:00.015Z

Something of a sensation at the start to Festival week with Tuesday's Champion Hurdle favourite Binocular withdrawn from the race on the advice of the British Horseracing Authority (BHA). Having received legitimate medication for the treatement of an allergy, Binocular continued to test positive for the substance over the weekend; connections were left with little choice but to withdraw their charge as it appears clear the horse would have tested positive for the banned substance had he defended his title in the Champion. This was probably the last thing trainer Nicky Henderson wanted following his three month ban and £40,000 fine, having being found guilty of administering an anti-bleeding drug to The Queen's hurdler, Moonlit Path, a year ago. The vet in that affair, James Main, was later struck off by The Royal College of Veterinary Surgeons. Several layers have agreed to refund ante-post bets on Binocular while Betfair has declared void bets struck on the horse between 0800 and 1000 on Sunday morning.

Revised Champion Hurdle betting this evening: Menorah 100/30 favourite (bet365), Hurricane Fly 7/2, PeddlersCross 4/1, Oscar Whisky 8/1, Khyber Kim 12/1, Mille Chief 14/1. Of the market leaders, the price about Mille Chief is the one that appears to have contracted the least. Spare a thought too for Paul Townend who has done nothing wrong in riding Hurricane Fly to victory three times this season but he finds himself riding Willie Mullins' second string Thousand Stars while Ruby Walsh takes over on Hurricane Fly.

Talking of Ruby Walsh, earlier in the week I received what appeared to be a letter from the man himself and this afternoon he actually rang me up! Of course, he competely ignored everything I said on the phone but insisted I took out a subscription to Racing UK and pointed out I could win my subscription back with RUK's 'Ruby Tuesday' promotion. It's that time of the racing year - more offers than you can shake a stick at.

Additional snippets...

Geraghty has chosen Spirit Son in the first race on the first day
McCoy picks up the ride on Sprinter Sacre in the same race
Aegean Dawn is now likely to run in Wednesday's Coral Cup
Imperial Cup winner Alarazi is favourite for Friday's County Hurdle (8/1 totesport)
Choc Thornton rides Neptune Collonges in the Gold Cup, Daryl Jacob What A Friend
Tranquil Sea misses Thursday's Ryanair after a bad scope
Paddy Power offers to refund losing bets on the first race if Cue Card wins
Sam Winner is set to run in Friday's Triumph Hurdle.

With 3mm rain last night, the going on the Old Course has been eased to good to soft, good in places. A drop of rain would enhance Khyber Kim's chance in Tuesday's Champion Hurdle according to connections speaking on Saturday's Morning Line.

As always in Festival week, I aim to post selections the night before racing. I'm going to Cheltenham on Wednesday this year so will post Thursday's picks on Thursday morning. Below - profit/loss figures for the blog's highlighed selections to a £1 level stake over the past four years (just to give you an idea what you might be letting yourself in for...):

2010 +£5.75
2009 +£7.50
2008 - £4.99
2007 +£6.45

Of course, past performance is no guide whatsoever to future performance...

And finally... The lead property for sale in the 'Bricks And Mortar' supplement of Friday's Times was A.P. McCoy's 'lavish home' Lodge Down House. Amongst other features the property boasts a games room, a family room, a boot room as well as TVs in two bathrooms. 'The McCoys are splitting the estate to build a house and racing stable complex and are selling Lodge Down House with ... the best 38 acres of land.' A.P. looking to the future and contemplating retirement from the saddle perhaps? The property comes with a £2.5 million price tag - I had booked an appointment with my mortgage adviser for tomorrow morning but unfortunately it appears I've been beaten to it - the property is already under offer.

Washing machine failure provides timely boost to betting bank

2011-03-11T19:20:00.014Z

I can't quite believe it - a tale for those who might be persuaded that insurance salesmen are little more than glorified bookmakers. On Tuesday our Bosch washing machine stopped working with three short weeks left on its extended warranty. Chief washing machine operative, Mrs Tips, logged a call with the helpline; a washing machine engineer appeared, took one look at the aforementioned piece of equipment and without hesitation declared it a write-off. The terms of the extended warranty state that if a repair cannot be effected, a new replacement machine will be provided. Now I know the more churlish amongst you will point out that my extended warranty premiums will have contributed to the purchase of the new machine but there's no getting away from the fact it *feels* like I've just bagged myself a free washing machine that would have cost in the region of £350 to replace, and all this in the week before Cheltenham. Those funds can now be diverted to the betting bank before the scheduled trip to the Cheltenham races on Wednesday; perhaps there is a God after all...

I'm not tempted to risk any of those gains at Sandown tomorrow where 24 go in the feature, the Imperial Gold Cup. Ante-post favourite Aegean Dawn has been withdrawn following a lacklustre performance on the gallops earlier in the week; apparently it's now doubtful whether he'll turn up for either of his Festival appointments, the Coral Cup on Wednesday or the County Hurdle on Friday, although this evening layers still quote Henderson's charge 8/1 for the Coral Cup and 10/1 joint favourite for the County. All that puts David Pipe's Arrayan firmly in tomorrow's spotlight. A £75,000 bonus is paid to a horse that wins the Imperial and then goes on to win any race at the Festival - the Pipe yard has pulled the trick off in the past with Olympian (1993), Blowing Wind (1998) and Gaspara (2007). There's (perhaps a bit more than) a hint the yard has left top weight Ronaldo Des Mottes in here to keep Arrayan's weight down - if Ronaldo was a non-runner, the weights would rise seven pounds and give Arrayan a burden of 11-1; as it is the gelding has 10-8 to carry with Barry Geraghty deputising for suspended Tom Scudamore. In the past decade only two horses have carried more more than 11 stones to victory - Polar Red (11-1) in 2002 and Korelo (11-6) in 2003, both trained by... Martin Pipe! The yard has taken five of the last ten runnings and is primarily responsible for the fact that six favourites have obliged in the same timeframe. Via Galilei will be popular having hurdled fluently and won with his head in his chest at Newbury last week - the gelding holds an entry in the County Hurdle, as does course and distance winner Song Of Songs who didn't appear to enjoy chasing but definitely prefers a right-handed track and is 40/1 this evening. Owned by J P McManus, I suppose we should take the hint if the price contracts sharply... If you're tempted, note that several layers pay a quarter the odds five places including Sky Bet, Betfred, Paddy Power and Stan James.

Starluck is long odds-on for the novice chase at 4.10. I'll watch his jumping closely on this particularly trappy course for novices; if all goes well, he heads to Aintree.

Other Festival updates in brief...

Weird Al (Ian Williams) goes in the Gold Cup (40/1 Coral)
So Young (Willie Mullins) now heads the market for the Neptune (7/2 generally)
Choc Thornton rides Somersby in the Champion Chase - spare a thought for Hadden Frost
Our Girl Salley (Prunella Dobbs) misses Cheltenham after a bad scope
Bothy (Brian Ellison) is set to run in the Coral Cup
Zaynar (Nicky Henderson) goes for the World Hurdle (20/1 in places)
Planet Of Sound (P. Hobbs) is likely to miss the Gold Cup
Brian Ellison will wait until Monday before deciding Marsh Warbler's target

And finally...
The Cheltenham Old Course was watered for a second consecutive day today.

Pre-Cheltenham chit-chat

2011-03-06T17:47:00.009Z

In brief...

Riverside Theatre misses the Ryanair - a hairline fracture of the pelvis has been diagnosed;

Earlier in the week Diamond Harry suffered an injury and misses the Gold Cup;

Connections of Starluck have decided to swerve the Arkle, prefering to go to Sandown on Friday and then on to Aintree;

Doncaster winner Montbazon misses the Festival bumper and heads to Aintree instead;

Newbury winner Fine Parchment has the Topham Chase as his target;

Coral, bet365 and Paddy Power now offer non-runner no bet on all Festival races;

Jason Maguire's ban has been reduced - he rides Peddlers Cross in the Champion Hurdle;

A stat from Paul Jones: in last year's Festival handicaps just nine of the 44 win/place positions were filled by horses starting at under 10/1;

Another Paul Jones stat: Of the last 12 Arkle winners to contest the Champion Chase the following year, 5 have won, 5 have finished second and two have taken third spot - Sizing Europe is 14/1 with bet365.

Cheltenham going is now reported as good to soft;

And with St Patrick's Day just around the corner, Heinz have launched HP Guinness Sauce - jolly tasty it is too!

Last night I spent an hour or so on the phone talking Cheltenham horses with a fellow racegoer. He was of the opinion that Willie Mullins' 2008 Neptune winner Fiveforthree offered decent each-way value in the World Hurdle - William Hill bet 16/1 this evening which looks tempting.

Ian King, Business Editor at The Times, writing in Saturday's paper... 'The Cheltenham Festival doesn't start until a week on Tuesday, but one could be forgiven for spotting jostling in the stalls yesterday at Aviva's results presentation.' Starting stalls? At the Cheltenham Festival? Tut, tut.

Here's a (not-totally comprehensive) list of racing people mentioned in the The Times' Sport Power 100 - a countdown of sport's most influential people; last year's position is shown in brackets.

21 (7) Sir Alex Ferguson, owner
24 (15) Sheikh Mohammed, Godolphin owner
31 (new) David and Simon Reuben, Northern Racing owners
36 (95) Rio Ferdinand, owner
42 (76) Ralph Topping, William Hill chief executive
43 (64) Harry Rednapp, owner
54 (new) Simon Bazalgette, Jockey Club Racecourses chief executive
68 (70) Nic Coward, Chief executive, BHA
87 (77) Edward Wray and Andrew Black, co-founders, Betfair.

Finally, looking a little further ahead, as part of the Racing For Change initiative 25 racecourses are offering free admission to their fixtures in April. That has to be worth a look, doesn't it? The final free meeting takes place at Doncaster on Friday 29th April, the day of the Royal Wedding; Alan Lee reports in Saturday's Times that all the free tickets for that particular meeting are likely to have been snapped up by the end of this week (and it's not hard to see why...) If you've missed the boat, don't worry - other meetings are scheduled at Leicester, Perth, Fontwell and Bangor-On-Dee (where a paddock ticket will set you back £17). That looks a small price to pay if it means you avoid all the media hullabaloo that surrounds any Royal Wedding - I'm off to order mine right now!

North and South selections

2011-03-04T19:22:00.006Z

With Cheltenham a little over a week away, I'm never quite sure what to make of the intervening Saturday cards...

Newbury's meeting in support of Greatwood tops the bill but it looks a jolly difficult card with 17 set to contest the highlight, the Wiltshire County Show Supporting Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase. If I had to nominate one at the meeting, I'd keep a look out for Benbane Head in the opener. This one was put up by Peter Naughton as a free tip for the Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham five weeks ago. In the event the chestnut gelding was declared a non-runner but he holds Festival entries in the World Hurdle and the Pertemps Final. Naughton had thought Keighley's charge was destined for the Albert Bartlett but the handler seems quite sweet on stablemate Champion Court for that particular event. It's worth noting that Barry Geraghty rides two for Henderson, Silicium and Oasis Knight, at Kempton before dashing to Newbury where he rides another two for Henderson and Gus Macrae for Rebecca Curtis. McCoy travels in the opposite direction, riding four at Newbury before travelling to Kempton to partner Nomansland for, er, Nicky Henderson!

11 go in the feature at Doncaster, the Grimthorpe Handicap Chase at 3.15. The going is described as good and a few of these are likely to appreciate the better ground including Ogee, Merigo, Character Building and favourite Presenting Forever whose trainer Howard Johnson fears former charge Killyglen. In an open event I'll take a small each-way interest in Character Building. At the age of 11 there's a suspicion his best years could be behind him but the stable are in fine form at the moment; Coral, Hill and Stan James offer 14/1 this evening which is bigger than most prices on the exchanges. In the Weekender Alan King has a word for Montbazon in the bumper (4.25) - he was expecting a strong challenge from Paul Nicholls' Broomfield but that one goes in the finale at Newbury and could represent a play against likely favourite Hit The Headlines there. On the back of comments made in a stable tour article last month, I'm going to forgive Colin Tizzard's Theatrical Star his last effort at Hereford and take an each-way interest provided the price is big enough.

At Kelso the Trevor Hemmings owned BallaBriggs, currently second in the market for this year's National, is favoured by the race conditions and is the one to beat in the 3.40 but he's priced accordingly. Jimmy Moffat's stats for the season make grim reading with just one win from 92 runs but the handler seems bullish enough about his charge Chief Dan George - at around 11/2 I'll take the chance. In the 4.15 Storm Brig has three pounds to find with Desert Cry on official ratings but I prefer Alistair Whillans' bay in what looks a competitive event.

Any Other Business

2011-02-27T14:22:00.012Z

Yesterday at Kempton there was double delight for Philip Hobbs and Richard Johnson with Captain Chris (2/5f) and Racing Post Chase winner Quinz (8/1) while at Newcastle the David Pipe and Tom Scudamore combination pulled off a similar stunt with Battle Group (5/1) and The Tracey Shuffle (6/5f). Better news from the Twiston-Davies team too with both Imperial Commander and Khyber Kim pleasing in their racecourse gallop; last year's Gold Cup winner had failed to impress in a previous piece of work at Warwick but it transpired he had raced with Oscar Magic who took the Kempton finale in some style and is now quoted at 20/1 (Coral) for the Festival bumper. If you agree with Nigel's view that Khyber Kim, second behind Binocular in last year's Champion Hurdle, is the forgotten horse this time around, then you'd be interested in the 25s available with several layers including Coral, Paddy Power, Victor Chandler and totesport.

All roads lead to Cheltenham at this time of year - or do they? Starluck put in a couple of sketchy leaps on his way to a facile win at Huntingdon on Thursday. Several bookmakers offer a miserly-looking 8/1 about this one for the Arkle; Stan James and Victor Chandler go 12s but I'm not tempted and in any case connections have yet to commit to the race. Two jocks sweating - Jason Maguire appeals on Thursday against a seven-day ban which, if upheld, will see him miss the ride on Peddlers Cross in the Champion Hurdle; Tom Scudamore was relieved to get just three days for careless riding aboard Dan Breen at Sandown on Friday.

Something different at this year's Festival - Ladies' Day has been moved to Wednesday to accommodate St Patrick's Day falling on the Thursday. Booking my Tatts tickets for the Wednesday, I was set something of a poser by those clever marketing chappies - pay the discounted price for a ticket (£37) or, alternatively, pay the full price (£45) with the promise of a full refund if a lady trainer has a winner on the day. Jessica Harrington trains the current favourite for the Neptune, Oscars Well, while Venetia Williams has several entries in the Coral Cup along with Tenor Nivernais and Pepite Rose in the Fred Winter. Being something of a cheapskate, I had no qualms whatsoever in taking the discounted price.

Question: When will the Raceform Update Guide to Cheltenham be available in my local newsagents?
Answer: From Friday 4th March.

More sample stats for Cheltenham, this time from the guys at Racing Trends who have compiled 10 year trends for all the major Festival races. For example, favourites have a dismal record in the William Hill Trophy on the opening day with just one win in the last 14 years and only three since 1969; having said that, six of the last ten to collect the spoils were positioned either second, third or fourth in the market. Nine of the last ten winners finished in the first three on their last run while all ten had a handicap rating between 129 and 143. From 59 qualifiers in the past decade, no horse carried 11 stones or more to victory. If you fancy more of the same, you'll need to get in touch with the team on the link above.

Warwickshire Life is the sort of publication you tend to find in a doctor's waiting-room and isn't one you'd consider buying unless, of course, you happened to frequent a particular social sphere... Yesterday though I purchased a copy of the March edition as it contains an enlightening four page article on the Waley-Cohen operation and Sam's attempt to become the first amateur jockey to win the Gold Cup since Mr Jim Wilson rode Little Owl to victory in 1981. In the history of the great race only two other amateurs have performed a similar feat - Mr Hugh Grosvenor aboard Thrown In in 1927 and Mr Richard Black on Fortina in 1947 - so Sam has set himself something of a challenge in bidding to win this year's renewal aboard his father's horse Long Run. Robert Waley-Cohen owns Upton Estate near Edgehill, Warwickshire while the National Trust maintains Upton House, described by Wikipedia as '..agreeable but of modest architectural significance'. Hmmm... For a day job Sam runs his own dentistry business, Portman Healthcare, so you can't but admire the commitment and determination as he fits in fitness training around a full day at the office. Yogi Breisner has been working with the team to iron out Long Run's jumping problems which had been evident in previous races but the King George performance at Kempton indicated a marked improvement and marked Long Run as a horse to be taken very seriously. Trainer Nicky Henderson rates him his best chance of a Gold Cup to date so, rest assured, no stone will be left unturned in an attempt to realise the dream. I wish Sam Waley-Cohen the very best of luck on Friday 18th March.

A piece of good news to finish on - Ruby Walsh was back in the saddle earlier today, partnering Mikael D'haguenet in a spin after racing at Leopardstown. Ruby intends to return to race-riding later this week, possibly at Taunton on Thursday.

The Racing Post Chase or The Eider Chase?

2011-02-25T18:52:00.017Z

Going through the form for tomorrow's Racing Post Chase at Kempton, I'm struck by the number of big stables that are currently struggling - in the past fortnight Nigel Twiston-Davies has recorded three wins from 37 runs; Philip Hobbs two from 27 runs; Jonjo O'Neill one from 21 runs; David Pipe one win from 22 runs while Tom George's last winner was over 50 days ago. Of the 17 declared for the Kempton feature, only six are set to carry 11 stones or more, yet in the past decade seven winners have carried 11 stones or more to victory, three having won with top weight (Gungadu 2008, Farmer Jack 2005 and Marlborough 2004). Last year Nacarat (11-8) tried to make all under Tony McCoy but was denied a neck by Razor Royale (10-5) ridden by Paddy Brennan; tomorrow Brennan is aboard Nacarat while McCoy rides likely favourite Fistral Beach who unseated Ruby Walsh at the second last year. At present both Nacarat and Razor Royale look a little out of form but I'd still consider the latter at a price as in the autumn Twiston-Davies put this one up as his best chance in a Gold Cup after Imperial Commander. 20/1 about Nicky Henderson's Polyfast looks quite big but the gelding doesn't look certain to stay so I'll have an each-way wager on Colin Tizzard's Hey Big Spender (14/1 totesport); all the major layers offer a quarter the odds the first four places.

Four declared for the Pendil and that is likely to be reduced to three as Kerada is considered doubtful this evening. Plenty will see this as a golden opportunity for Captain Chris to record his first win over the larger obstacles following his second behind Arkle hope Medermit at Sandown three weeks ago. Captian Chris wasn't foot perfect that day and given the stable form (see above - and two favourites turned over at Huntingdon on Thursday) I was tempted to oppose with Paul Nicholls' highly-regarded American Trilogy until I read the grey had jumped out left when winning over course and distance the last time.

The Adonis looks trappy. Paul Nicholls' French import Tonic Mellyse has his first run in this country and is priced up favourite. Nicky Henderson has won this previously with the likes of
Soldatino, Binocular and Punjabi -the Weekender suggested Celtus was likely to be that handler's entry but Celtus goes for the Dovecote while Molotoff runs in this. On official ratings Molotoff has something to find with a couple of these so I'm going out on a limb to back Maoi Chinn Tire each way at 25/1 or bigger. Granted, he carries top weight and we don't know how he'll cope with this right-handed track but trainer Jennie Candlish is in good form at the moment; she states in the Weekender her charge wasn't suited by Cheltenham the last time - I'm prepared to forgive that effort. Aintree is the plan so connections clearly hold the gelding in high regard; Jennie's partner Alan O'Keefe takes the ride.

In the Dovecote Celtus holds a Triumph Hurdle entry and is another having his first run in this country; over in France the gelding won three of his four starts, finishing second on his penultimate run. At the weights there's little to choose between this one and Paul Nicholls' Toubab. Toubab didn't appear to find a lot in the Tolworth the last time and the winner of that race, Minella Class, hardly franked the form at Huntingdon on Thursday, even if the starter did gift eventual winner Aikman a soft lead. The flat track here may suit Toubab better than Sandown but I'm still wondering whether he's something of a bridle horse - we should find out tomorrow. This evening they bet 5/2 Toubab 7/2 Celtus so Celtus gets the vote - in the last five years a four-year-old has collected the spoils on two occasions (Trenchant 2009, Escort'men 2010).

The Eider meeting at Newcastle, where the going is heavy, is subject to an early morning inspection. I note that Tom Scudamore, not one to turn down a long journey in the quest for a winner, rides here rather than at Kempton. If the meeting gets the green light I'll take a small each-way interest in Flintoff, part-owned by Freddie Flintoff. Somewhat like his owner, the chestnut gelding comes with something of a health warning but the stable is in good form and this slog in the mud should suit; there's the added advantage that conditioins will also slow the others down - William Hill offer 16/1 this evening.

Cheltenham's coming...

2011-02-20T18:24:00.010Z

Thought I'd start this round-up with an update on the possible Festival longshots put up last week...

Mille Chief Took the Kingwell by a nose from Celestial Halo. The latter-named made a right hash of the last; Mille Chief looked booked for the runner's up berth before that error. Trainer Alan King tells us he'll be better on better ground and I'm sure he will but it was still disappointing in a race in which both Silviniaco Conti and Overturn didn't appear to run to their marks. 14/1 available in a number of places - if you're not holding an ante-post voucher at this point, I wouldn't be rushing out to get one.

Cue Card Trainer Colin Tizzard indicated the Supreme Novices' Hurdle rather than the Champion Hurdle is Cue Card's intended race at the Festival.

Tarablaze Jumped abysmally in the four runner novice chase won by Aiteen Thirtythree at Newbury on Friday. William Hill still go 25/1 for the RSA, Sky Bet offer 66/1. No longer of interest.

What A Friend Another I was ready to ditch after Newbury on Friday but, having seen the recording, I'm going to hold fire. The horse struggled on the ground, appearing to run in snatches. He's not the easiest of rides at the best of times; with Noland getting very tired after the last, there was a suspicion he could still have collected the spoils had Harry Skelton not switched his run. Of course, on official ratings he should have won with something to spare - handler Paul Nicholls indicated this performance wasn't anywhere near good enough to get placed in a Gold Cup and he'll consider applying the blinkers in the big race. The horse will improve for the better ground, something he hasn't had in his two races this season. Stan James and William Hill stand out with quotes of 50/1 - Boylesports go 20/1. Tempted?

China Rock Interesting to see Alistair Whitehouse-Jones make a similar case for this one in the Weekender. Trainer Mouse Morris confirmed his charge has come out of the Irish Hennessy well and goes for the Gold Cup. The $64,000 question is - will this son of Presenting stay? Whitehouse-Jones describes it as a grey area, with the dam from the same family as Zongalero and Garrison Savanagh. 66/1 still available with William Hill - a bigger price than What A Friend - I think I'm going to have an each-way dabble.

Other Cheltenham snippets - Imperial Commander had a racecourse gallop at Warwick on Monday. Afterwards handler Twiston-Davies said he was 'pleased' with his charge and was quoted as saying 'He went really well...' Later in the week the quality of that workout appeared to have deteriorated - in Friday's TV coverage it was described as 'satisfactory' while by Saturday the workout had become 'indifferent'. In the past fortnight the stable have had just two winners from thirty runs - the team at Grange Hill Farm have a month to get last year's winner to peak fitness.

Updated Festival prices following yesterday's action - Riverside Theatre 7/1 Ryanair Chase; Master Of The Hall 20/1 RSA Chase; Back In Focus 10/1, Court In Motion 10/1 Albert Bartlett.

If you make just one pre-Festival purchase make sure it's Paul Jones' Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide 2011 due to be published February 25th. On his Twitter account (@sportspunter01) Paul has put out some taster stats to whet your appetite... For example, all Gold Cup winners in the past 20 years had had at least one run after Christmas Day that season; over half the winners of the William Hill Trophy had been placed at the Festival previously; of the last twelve Arkle winners to contest the Champion Chase the following year, five won, five finished second and two were placed third. I'm off to place my order now!

Those who have in the past used the Gloucestershire Warwickshire Railway to arrive at Cheltenham Racecourse station for the Festival should be aware they will be unable to do so this year as the railway has had something of an annus horribilis with two separate landslips, one at Gotherington and the other at Chicken Curve, Winchcombe, causing damage that will cost over £2 million to repair. An emergency appeal has been launched which has the backing of that well-known railway fanatic, Pete Waterman.

A piece in the business section of Saturday's Times told us something betting shop regulars will have suspected for quite some time. Ladbrokes reported a 7.3% fall in their 'over-the-counter' bets last year but gaming machines were up 7.2%...

Finally, if Ant and Dec are to your taste, there's a chance you'll bump into them on a racecourse this summer. They've bought Primaeval, a four year old chestnut colt trained by James Fanshawe. Apparently Dec bought the horse for his father as a Christmas present - I've been dropping subtle hints to Mrs Tips along similar lines but, to date, I've nothing concrete to report. Rest assured, you'll be the first to know should the unlikely ever come to pass.

From Ascot to Wincanton via Haydock

2011-02-18T19:47:00.008Z

If identifying a vulnerable favourite is half the battle, there are three forecast at Ascot I won't be taking on... In the feature Betfair Ascot Chase, Riverside Theatre has, on official ratings, nine pounds and upwards in hand over his six rivals and looks the one to beat. Pride Of Dulcote will have his supporters but the gelding had a wasted trip to Leopardstown a fortnight ago when that meeting was abandoned and the form of his head defeat of Punchestowns at Newbury wasn't franked by that one the next time at Kempton, even though Punchestowns ended up winning the race by eleven lengths. I've always thought Tartak something of an enigma but Paddy Brennan's record on the horse speaks for itself - five wins from eight rides.

Sprinter Sacre, described recently as the apple of Nicky Henderson's eye, is as low as 10/1 for the Supreme Novices' at Cheltenham. He's expected to oblige in the 4.05 but will be no price.

Persian Snow went into many notebooks when winning over course and distance last October. That was run on good ground - perhaps connections are slightly wary of underfoot conditions here as they've opted to fit a tongue-tie this time.

Of the four in the Reynoldstown I prefer Master Of The Hall to The Minack. Having said that, there's nothing between them on ratings and The Minack beat Nicky Henderson's charge fifteen lengths in a novice hurdle at Huntingdon a year ago...

There's a decent card at Haydock where the feature is the Grand National Trial at 3.20. Fourteen face the starter for what looks likely to be one long slog in the mud; the going on the chase track is reported to be heavy, soft in places and further rain is expected. Aidan Coleman has been sweet on Mobaasher for a while now and the chestnut gelding gets another mention on his blog this evening. I'll take a small each-way interest in Le Beau Bai who will relish conditions; the stable is in fine form (three wins from 11 runners in past fortnight) and conditional rider Jake Greenall takes off a handy-looking seven pounds.

One of Aidan's I will bet provided the gelding isn't priced up favourite is Houbon Des Obeaux (1.40) who looked impressive behind Marsh Warbler on his first run in this country.

Court In Motion, currently 6/1 favourite for the Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham, goes in the 2.10 and on ratings is entitled to win with something to spare. He'll be a short price but I wouldn't be tempted as the yard has been a bit in and out of late.

Over at Wincanton five go in what looks a fascinating renewal of the Kingwell. In the Weekender Alan King is bullish enough about Mille Chief, although he does caution the horse is better on better ground. Overturn is likely to run his race from the front and won't be easy to pass but at this evening's prices 4/1 Silviniaco Conti (bet365, SkyBet) looks value. Admittedly he has to give weight to all his opponents but his third behind Menorah (9/2 in places for the Champion Hurdle) conceding four pounds in the International at Cheltenham comes right out of the top drawer. For me, the stand-out feature of Paul Nicholls' charge is the speed with which he takes his hurdles.

A sad weekend for racing

2011-02-13T18:37:00.010Z

There were traumatic scenes at Newbury yesterday as two horses, Fenix Two and Marching Song, collapsed and died in the parade ring before the opening race. The horses appear to have been electrocuted - the suspicion is an underground cable may have been disturbed during recent maintenance work; this evening The Sporting Life reports a section of cable has been removed from the racecourse paddock area. Two other horses, Kid Cassidy and The Merry Giant, were also affected; Kid Cassidy was withdrawn at the start while The Merry Giant was allowed to take his chance in the opener but was reported 'badly traumatised' after the race. Once the seriousness of the incident became apparent, the remainder of the card was rightly abandoned, with the racecourse offering racegoers a full money refund. The BHA intend to make a further statement tomorrow.

In what has turned out to be a disastrous weekend for horse-racing, both Money Trix and Glencove Marina suffered fatal injuries in the Irish Hennessy at Leopardstown while at Warwick Colin Tizzard's Kilmurry had to be put down following an injury sustained at the penultimate flight in the Kingmaker.

Newbury also managed to make the headlines in The Times' business section on Saturday - Guiness Peat Group, which owns a 29.9% stake in the racecourse, is looking to sell off its investment portfolio. Ever fancied a share in a racecourse?

With the Cheltenham Festival little over a month away, I need to do some homework on a few potential longshots. Here's an initial list that needs plenty of work but might prove a useful starting point...

Mille Chief - 14/1 Champion Hurdle (totesport). Likely to run in the Kingwell at Wincanton.

Cue Card - 33/1 Champion Hurdle (Stan James). Colin Tizzard writing in the Weekender says a decision will be taken on Cue Card's Festival target by the weekend.

Knockara Beau - 16/1 Pertemps Final. Looks to have benifitted from return to hurdling. Fifth in Ballymore / Neptune Novices' Hurdle 2009 behind Mikael D'haguenet.

The Giant Bolster - 25/1 RSA Chase. Not the quickest but will be staying on when others have cried enough - a blog favourite.

Tarablaze - 25/1 RSA Chase. Well backed in the past few days.

Captain Cee Bee - 12/1 Champion Chase (totesport). McCoy rated this one his best chance of a winner at last year's Festival but the horse broke a blood vessel in the Arkle. Went on to win Ryanair Novice Chase at Punchestown.

What A Friend - 40/1 Gold Cup (Coral). Looks overpriced on Aintree Bowl victory last April.

China Rock - 66/1 Gold Cup. Not certain to line up and several question marks over his stamina - will he come up hill? Probably not, but the price is big and he's likely to appreciate good ground.

Finally, finishing on a much-needed lighter note, the Daily Mail recently reported Welsh Cob Basil the stallion likes to pop down to his local, The Meynell Ingram Arms in Burton, Staffordshire, for a pint of Marston's Pedigree. If you're asking, Basil, mine's a Guinness...

Quick thoughts on Newbury, Warwick & Leopardstown

2011-02-11T19:35:00.013Z

Punchestowns took the Graduation Chase at Kempton earlier today and in the process helped Nicky Henderson reach 2,000 career wins but for much of the trip the 4/6 favourite looked in trouble behind the front-running Pasco. However the grey slowed markedly up the home straight thereby allowing Barry Geraghty to galvanise his mount to an improbable eleven length victory. Pasco finished distressed in second; after the race trainer Paul Nicholls sent out a tweet indicating the grey had choked and would be sent for a breathing operation in due course.

Newbury hosts a top class card tomorrow, the totesport Trophy Hurdle at 3.35 the big betting race of the day. With twenty three set to face the starter, several layers bet each-way a quarter the odds five places including sponsors totesport, Sky Bet and Paddy Power. Since 1980 seven winners have carried more than 11 stones - Grey Salute (1989); Deep Sensation (1990); Make A Stand (1997); Sharpical (1998); Geos (2000); Copeland (2002) and Essex (2005). In that period no horse has won carrying more than 11-7, an ominous-looking stat for a number of fancied chances near the top of the handicap. David Pipe's pair, Ronaldo Des Mottes and Notus De La Tour, caught my eye. The former was second in this last year but has an additional twelve pounds on his back this time while Notus De LaTour has had this as his main target for the season. This evening Notus is 16/1 with Coral while Ronaldo is 22/1 with bet365 who bet five places. In an impossible race, I'm going to have an each-way dabble on Evan Williams' Tarkari who had a warm-up at Ffos Las last week. Formerly with Willie Mullins, Tarkari is generally available at 25/1, although I note stable jockey Paul Moloney has opted to ride Tiger O'Toole...

Six in the Game Spirit but it looks trappy now pre-race favourite Woolcombe Folly has been withdrawn following a bad scope. I'll side with French Opera provided the rain stays away.

The Aon looks between Riverside Theatre, part-owned by actor James Nesbitt and What A Friend, part-owned by Sir Alex Ferguson. The Manchester United manager may be known for winning but his horse faces a stiff task here conceding four pounds to an opponent officially rated nine pounds higher. Riverside Theatre hasn't won at this trip but his performance behind Long Run in the King George appears to have dispelled any lingering fears...

Keeping up the footballing connection, Harry Redknapp owns Bygones In Brid who takes his chance in the bumper. Trainer Alan King put this one up as one to monitor a few weeks ago but since then the gelding missed an intended engagement at Wincanton as connections weren't totally happy. He runs here but is probably best watched on this occasion (a comment that could apply to Harry's team, Tottenham Hotspur, perhaps?)

Only three in the 4.05 but I'd be tempted to take a chance on Philip Hobbs' Tarablaze following reports the gelding was backed earlier today for the RSA Chase at the Festival next month. In a RP stable tour article published last October the handler said '... he's certainly one we are very much looking forward to.' Coral are currently best-priced 33/1 about Tarablaze for the Cheltenham showpiece.

At Warwick four go in the Kingmaker where current Arkle favourite Finian's Rainbow will be expected to collect the spoils. Writing in the Weekender handler Colin Tizzard is bullish enough about Kilmurry. This one gave Ghizao eight pounds and an eleven length beating at Cheltenham in October but the form was dramatically reversed four weeks later. Tizzard tells us to ignore that defeat as the horse returned with a problem. He's been off since and is likely to need this, especially with the stable struggling to emerge from a quiet spell, but he's currently 33/1 for the Arkle (William Hill) which makes some appeal each-way.

At Leopardstown Quel Espirt is a play against enigmatic favourite Mikael D'haguenet in the Dr. P. J. Moriarty Novice Chase while in the Hennessy totesport's 9/1 about joint top-rated China Rock looks worth an each-way interest.

Odds 'n' sods

2011-02-06T20:05:00.009Z

The Irish Hennessy Gold Cup meeting at Leopardstown was abandoned earlier today on account of a waterlogged track; the fixture has been rescheduled for Saturday 12th February. Paul Nicholls' Pride Of Dulcote, ante-post favourite for the big race, will now be aimed at Ascot's Betfair Chase on Saturday 19th February but stablemate Indian Daudaie stays over in Ireland for the re-arranged fixture.

Nicky Henderson's champion hurdle entries Binocular and Oscar Whisky won their respective races yesterday at long odds-on. Binocular didn't look that impressive when beating 116-rated stablemate Ruthenoise one and three quarter lengths at Sandown but Oscar Whisky scooted through the Ffos Las mud to beat Black Jack Blues eight lengths. The suspicion is Oscar Whisky would need soft ground come March to show his best in the Champion Hurdle; the layers make Oscar Whisky a 14/1 chance while Binocular still heads the market at 100/30.

A feature of Medermit's victory in the Scilly Isles Novices' Chase was his jumping; Alan King's grey held the fast-finishing Captain Chris half a length at the post. In the circumstances Captain Chris did well to be thereabouts given he threw in a couple of novicey leaps on the way round. Medermit is generally 6/1 for the Arkle but totesport have taken a stance against Captain Chris offering 14/1.

There was a delay to the Grade 3 totescoop6 Heroes Handicap Hurdle at Sandown after Nicky Henderson's Lush Life spread a plate at the start. The gelding behaved impeccably as the TV cameras transmitted close-up pictures of the farrier doing his work. If the farrier was the hero, the villain was the starter who let the tape go before the 8/1 chance could rejoin the rest of the field - Lush Life lost any chance at the start, finishing eleventh of the twenty runners. The Sporting Life reports Lush Life 'detached from remainder when starter let tape go' and recorded one bet of £9000-£1000; that unfortunate punter, together with many others, was denied a fair run for his money.

Some Saturday selections

2011-02-04T18:01:00.013Z

Quick post this evening as I want to catch the Wales v. England rugby international. Dai Walters, the founder and owner of Ffos Las racecourse, will be hoping Wales can win tonight's match and that his horse Oscar Whisky makes it a double in the Welsh Champion Hurdle tomorrow. The layers think Whisky Oscar is something of a shoo-in (1/5) but they price England 4/7 favourites for tonight's encounter - Wales are 15/8 in spite of the home advantage.

In the three and a half mile chase at the Welsh track I'll chance I'moncloudnine who ran well to finish third in the Welsh National at Chepstow four weeks ago on ground that wouldn't necessarily suit. He sports first-time cheekpieces here which may bring out some improvement; Barry Geraghty, who looks to have a decent book of rides, is in the plate. The slight concern is the yard hasn't had a winner since January 13th.

At Sandown champion hurdler Binocular will face just three opponents at 1.55 - the next best horse is rated some 36 pounds inferior; as a result Binocular is priced 1/12 in tonight's tissue. The Scilly Isles Novices' Chase is far more competitive. After a comment in last Sunday's post about Robinson Collonges, I was looking forward to seeing that one taking his chance here but Paul Nicholls has entered front-runner Rebel Du Maquis instead. This one was beaten seven and a quarter lengths into third by Reve De Sivola and Wishfull Thinking the last time; on that occasion he was conceding eight pounds to the winner while the second franked the form with an impressive victory at the Cheltenham Trials Day meeting last week. Jonjo O'Neill saddles Rock Noir who hasn't raced over the distance in this country; in addition the stable has had a quiet time of it lately (3 wins from 33 runners in past fortnight). Big things were expected of Captain Chris this season - he's finished second three times but has bumped into a couple of smart performers in Silviniaco Conti and Ghizao; tomorrow should tell us more but on official ratings he has a bit to find with a few of these. Medermit is the top-rated animal and priced up the 7/2 market leader this evening; the favourite has won six of the last ten runnings. Second last time out in the Dipper, pilot Choc Thornton was disappointed to be beaten by Hell's Bay over two miles five - I've seen a comment from him this week saying that, with hindsight, he'd have ridden a different race. An open event - I'll side with Alan King's grey Medermit.

In the three mile totesport Masters Handicap Chase Philip Hobbs' Leading Contender appears nicely weighted - he doesn't have a lot of miles on the clock and is the tentative suggestion. Looking through a stable tour article from last October, the handler informs us the key is likely to be the jumping - the gelding isn't a natural but ran well enough for a long way behind Nicto De Beauchenne over course and distance the last time.

Only five go in the Towton at Wetherby but Ferdy Murphy had a good word for Hollo Ladies the other day. Ian Williams' Wayward Prince is bound to be popular but at the weights Murphy's charge has three pounds in hand and rates a play against the favourite at around 3/1.